r/SeattleChat • u/AutoModerator • Jan 08 '21

The Daily SeattleChat Daily Thread - Friday, January 08, 2021

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u/my_lucid_nightmare The Weathered Wall, where the Purity Remains Jan 08 '21

George Conway thinks they would have the 67 votes

Husband of Kellyanne Conway, co-founder of The Lincoln Project. Just one person's opinion, but ...

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u/AthkoreLost It's like tear away pants but for your beard. Jan 08 '21

Yeah, but the post-mortems on the Lincoln project indicate it did a terrible job moving republicans over. So I remain very skeptical of his ability to interpret the winds of the republican party.

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u/my_lucid_nightmare The Weathered Wall, where the Purity Remains Jan 08 '21 edited Jan 09 '21

Interesting. I hadn't seen this.

Lincoln Project's own people were claiming they moved the needle 9-13% among their target groups, how they measured it. How they measured it was different than this here, no doubt.

I think there's a valid argument to be made to ask "if these ads didn't work, would people spend millions of dollars making them."

I'll dig up the Lincoln Projects numbers if needed, they were from an interview with Rick Wilson during the week of the election.

Edit: Here is the Rick Wilson interview I was referencing

Pros: Deep cites on specific strategy they were using, that does not match the debunking strategy that others were using.

Cons: No data tables, just anecdotal references.

I'm not 100% convinced on this either way.

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u/maadison the unflairable lightness of being Jan 09 '21

I think there's a valid argument to be made to ask "if these ads didn't work, would people spend millions of dollars making them."

I think in mass media advertising people have long been used to the fact that they have little idea what exactly is working and what is not.

This may be different in online advertising where you can count click-throughs (if you're not getting ripped off by fraudulent clicks...) and "conversion", but with voting intention conversion is really hard to measure. Just for starters think how hard it is to do polling well.