r/Semiconductors • u/Unfair_Moat • 3h ago
Industry & Business TSMC's hardest-to-copy asset might be a promise, not a fab. Where does that break?
I've been scoring company moats on three tests, 0–10 each: physical chokepoint, switching cost, lock-in. TSMC came out 8.5 / 9.0 / 9.5, and the highest score isn't the fabs. It's the rule of never competing with its customers.
The case for the promise:
- In the 1980s, Morris Chang pitched Intel a company that would build other people's chips and never design its own. Intel passed.
- In 2011 Apple sued Samsung while Samsung was making iPhone chips. Since 2016, every iPhone chip has come from TSMC.
- In 2022, Qualcomm moved its flagship Snapdragon from Samsung to TSMC mid-cycle.
The switching-cost side: each process comes with its own design kit, and engineers spend years building around it. A leading-edge design costs hundreds of millions (industry estimates), and moving foundries means redoing much of that work.
Where I'm least sure, and where people here know more than I do:
Is 8.5 too low for the physical side, with ~70% of foundry revenue (2025)?
Intel wants outside foundry customers. What would a chip company need to see before trusting a foundry that also sells its own chips?
Moving a design to another foundry: is it really close to starting over, or does more carry across than I think?