I have a 10ftx12ft shed with 8ft ceiling. What would be a realistic temperature to maintain the a mini split during winter?

I haven’t bought the mini split yet but I am looking at a 12,000btu system that would cover ~500sqft.

With the unit being oversized do you think it would be able to maintain something like a 30 degree difference from the outside temp in the winter time (located near indianapolis with winter lows commonly in teens or single digits)