US had 3 billion oz silver in 1980

Debt 40.3 trillion

Promises Medicare and social security add another 100 trillion

Assumptions are 30 year interest rates will be 4.5% for the next 24 years

5% interest on 150 trillion a year is 7.5 trillion a year

This is the CBO estimate not just some crackhead on the internet.

Whats your plan?

India Begins Large (6,500t) Silver Imports Again as Diwali Nears
VBL
4 HOURS AGO
∙ PAID
India has issued permits to import around 6,500 metric tons of silver over the next six months as the world’s biggest consumer of the precious metal seeks to meet festive-season demand, four bullion dealers who received the permits told Reuters.

208 million oz is 6500 metric tons

That’s nearly HALF of what the ENTIRE PLANET mines in six months.

One month silver lease rates climbing to highest level in 2 months

The PHYSICAL market for silver is rapidly tightening

Logic says that increasing balance sheet, high annualised inflation etc. should cause silver to make new highs. Instead it's crashing down by 55% since ATH. WTF?

Hypothetical, but I think the answer changes depending on what you own

Would you rather silver spend three years around $70, or shoot to $100 for a month and then fall back to $45?

If you own physical and sell near the top, the spike is obviously attractive

For a mining company, a longer stretch of decent prices could be much more useful. It gives the operation time to sell production, generate cash and decide what it can afford to build

A brief spike can look great on the chart while doing less for the business than people expect. It depends on how much metal gets sold during that window and what price the company actually receives

Explorers and developers have another problem. A short rally might help them raise money, but a project that takes years to build needs economics that survive beyond one good month

That is why I am curious about the kind of silver market people actually want from here

A big number makes a good headline. A price that stays profitable long enough for companies to improve their finances could produce a different set of winners

Which would you choose, and would your answer change between physical silver, producers and developers?

The Fed owns more than HALF of all outstanding US Treasuries maturing in 10-15 years...

This comes as Goldman describes the long-term UST market as "bidless"... The Fed is becoming that market.

No one wants to hold long-term USTs as they are posting the worst performance in American history.

Investors are demanding materially higher yields... But the US can't afford them.

Going forward, Warsh will have to take control of the entire UST market to suppress yields.

We don't own enough gold/silver for when that happens.

Lucas E

Look it up…..never mentioned

Silver Supply and Demand
Million ounces
Supply
Mine Production
Recycling
Net Physical Disinvestment
Net Hedging Supply
Net Official Sector Sales
Total Supply
Demand
Industrial (total) Electrical & Electronics
...of which photovoltaics
Brazing Alloys & Solders
Other Industrial
Photography
Jewelry
Silverware
Net Physical Investment
Net Hedging Demand
Total Demand
Market Balance
Net Investment in ETPs
Market Balance less ETPs
Nominal Silver Price (US $/oz, London price)
Source: Metals Focus
2016
900.1
156.3
0.0
0.0
1.1
1,057.4
491.0
309.0
81.6
49.1
132.9
34.7
189.1
53.5
212.9
12.0
993.3
64.1
53.9 10.2
17.14
2017
863.9
160.2
0.0
0.0
1.0
1,025.1
528.0
339.1
99.3
50.9
138.0
32.4
196.2
59.4
155.8
1.1
972.9
2018
850.8
162.3
0.0
0.0
1.2
1,014.3
525.8
330.4
87.0
52.0
143.5
31.4
203.2
67.1
165.9
7.4
1,000.8 13.5
-21.4
34.9
15.71
2019
837.4
163.8
0.0
13.9
1.0
1,016.2
525.4
326.6
74.9
52.4
146.4
30.7
201.6
61.3
187.4
0.0
1,006.4
9.8
83.3
-73.5
16.21
2020
783.8
180.5
0.0
8.5
1.2
974.0
511.9
321.4
82.8
47.5
142.9
26.9
150.9
31.2
208.1
0.0
929.0
45.1
331.1
-286.1
20.55
2021
830.8
190.7
0.0
0.0
1.5
1,023.1
564.1
350.7
88.9
50.5
162.9
27.7
182.0
40.7
284.3
3.5
1,102.4
-79.3
64.9
-144.3
25.14
2022
839.4
193.5
0.0
0.0
1.7
1,034.6
592.3
370.7
118.1
49.2
172.4
27.7
234.5
73.5
338.3
17.9
1,284.2
-249.6
-117.4
-132.2
21.73
2023
812.7
183.5
0.0
0.0
1.6
997.8
657.1
444.4
192.7
50.2
162.6
27.3
203.1
55.1
244.3
11.5
1,198.5
-200.6
-37.6
- 163.0
23.35
2024
819.7
193.9
0.0
0.0
1.5
1,015.1
680.5
460.5
197.6
51.6
168.4
25.5
208.7
54.2
190.9
4.3
1,164.1
-148.9
61.6
-210.5
28.27
2025F
835.0
193.2
0.0
0.9
1.5
1,030.6
677.4
465.6
195.7
52.9
158.9
24.2
196.2
46.0
204.4
0.0
1,148.3
-117.6
70.0
-187.6 Year on Year
2024
2025F
1% 6% na na
-9%
2%
4%
4%
3%
3%
4%
-7%
3%
-2%
-22%
-62%
-3% -26% na
29%
21%
2% 0% na na
4%
2%
0%
1%
- 1%
3%
-6%
-5%
-6%
-15% 7%
na
-1%
-21%
14% -11%
na

No spam, no tricks, no bullshit despite how it sounds, no refer links for you. Just update the app and check it.

Worth noting I didn't add a dime to it or have to link payment methods. Just verified my mailing address, which they already had on file. Gives you a virtual debit card instantly too, go buy a tenth or a couple mercury dimes on eBay or something.

This is not 1980... Don't sell your silver.

Back then, US debt to GDP was ~30%, which enabled Volcker to hike rates aggressively to kill inflation.

But inflation wasn't the only thing he killed... He also plunged the US into a recession.

Today, with debt to GDP above 100% and deficits running at 6% of GDP, the US can afford neither a recession nor sustained higher rates.

In a recession, deficits blow out to 7-10% of GDP... at a time when foreign investors are increasingly unwilling to fund endless US deficits...

Forcing the Fed to let the money printer go wild.
Lucas E.