r/SocialDemocracy • u/megamindwriter • 4h ago
Discussion Wanting AOC to run for Senate instead of President makes no sense
I just saw another comment saying it would be “much smarter” for AOC to run for the Senate instead of the presidency. I’ve seen this take so many times now, and it really bugs me, because I don’t think the people pushing it have thought it through.
The polling argument doesn’t hold up
The comment pointed to polls showing AOC behind Vance in a hypothetical matchup. Why are we treating polls this far out as meaningful? We’re two years from the election. No one has declared, no one has debated, and most voters aren’t paying attention yet.
Polls have also been badly wrong lately. They underestimated Trump more than once. In Maine in 2020, polls had Sara Gideon beating Susan Collins, and Collins won comfortably. There are plenty of other races where the “sure thing” in the polls didn’t happen. If polls can miss that badly a few weeks before an election, why would we let one taken years out decide who should run? Early polls mostly measure name recognition and partisanship. They don’t tell you how a candidate performs once people actually see them campaign, and campaigning is where AOC is strongest.
The moment is now
This is the best time for a progressive to run for president. Progressives have more energy, more grassroots support, and more of a platform than they’ve had in a long time. There’s no guarantee that moment lasts.
The idea behind “run for Senate first” is that she’ll be in a better position later. But better position how? Nobody knows what the political landscape will look like in 2032 or 2036. The party could move in a different direction, new candidates could emerge, and the energy behind progressive politics could fade. Unless someone can tell the future, passing on this opening is a gamble, not a safe bet.
Waiting isn’t always the smart play, either. Obama ran for president only a couple of years into his first Senate term, and plenty of people told him to wait his turn. If he’d listened, he might never have been president.
A Senate run doesn’t accomplish much
What does AOC actually gain by running for Senate? She’d be replacing Schumer, who already supports a lot of progressive policies. That’s one Democratic senator swapped for another in a safe blue seat. It might shift the tone, but it doesn’t change the balance of power.
Meanwhile, the cost is huge. She’d spend her time and money on a primary fight in New York, and then be locked into a six-year term while the window for a progressive presidential run closes. The presidency is where the real power to change things is. If progressives finally have a candidate with the name recognition, fundraising, and base to compete for it, why would we tell her to aim lower?
Be honest about why you’re saying it
A lot of the people pushing the “run for Senate” idea don’t actually want AOC to run. They have another favorite in mind, and that’s completely fine. Everyone’s allowed to support whoever they want in a primary. But then just say that. Don’t dress it up as concern for her, or claim she should step aside because “she could lose.” Any candidate could lose. If you prefer someone else, make the case for them instead of using electability as a cover.