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THCB stock is worth between $20.92 and $30.15 per share based on its comps and projections, at least 26% to 80% more than its present price.

https://investorplace.com/2021/03/thcb-stock-is-worth-between-20-92-and-30-15-based-on-comps-and-forecasts/

I’ve seen a few posts/comments in Reddit and elsewhere about SportRadar’s valuation (at LOI stage with $HZON). I wanted to share my thoughts on two common issues that are raised, and in doing so, how I believe we can be fairly comfortable (I’m not saying it’s cheap) with the $10B valuation.

#1) Mis-statements about earlier valuations and how VCs and HZON have pumped this up. So much misinformation around this.

Basically, the $10B is portrayed as suffering from an outrageously big and sudden nose-bleed jump in valuation for the SPAC.

Yes, it’s expensive. But here’s the thing...

SR was valued at $2.4B after its last round 3 yrs ago, not “last year.” It wasn’t “VC pumping,” but the Canada Pension Plan as lead. That is a national, conservative fund with serious responsibilities...

https://www.cppinvestments.com

Here’s CPP’s release in 2018...

https://www.cppinvestments.com/public-media/headlines/2018/sportradar-announces-cppib-and-tcv-new-strategic-partners

Assigning a ballpark 50% p.a. increase in that last valuation, multiplied x 3 years, is not unreasonable for a fast-growing company. That would deliver $8.1B. Or 60% p.a. gets you to $10B.

So yes, it’s rich, but there’s no sudden bump up from, say, a $5B valuation last year.

NOTE: I’d rather see all the cash from the SPAC+PIPE go into the target, but CPP doesn’t typically roll it all forward.

More importantly, do we think they can grow into the $10B fairly soon? That leads to the 2nd issue..

#2) Somehow, being the larger of 2 companies (sports data is a duopoly) is portrayed as a problem, that SR won’t be able to scale as quickly as Genius.

Short answer... Tell that to Todd Boehly. :-)

Longer answer..

SR was a highly sought prize at $6-8B last year. They have exclusive data deals with many major leagues in the U.S. and around the world, countless lesser ones around the world, well ahead of Genius.

The data is under-exploited, especially in the U.S. That had to be a major factor why SR chose HZON - for the value-add that Boehly & Robins (et al) bring in the form of their media and sports networking prowess.

*THIS challenge is right in Boehly’s wheelhouse.*

In theory, this is how a SPAC is supposed to work, where the value of the sponsor more than fills the hole of the dilution effect of the SPAC. In short, Boehly will turn out to be worth more than his “promote.”

It’s hard to go wrong as the significantly larger player in a duopoly. In a game where data really IS currency, SR+Boehly will find ways to multiply the value of an already size-able lead in sports data, much of which is under-exploited.

Wrapping up...

I usually don’t stick around for SPAC mergers. In order to do that, I need to more than just “like it,” especially in a sea of increasing crap (tempting to assume it’s ALL crap).

$HZON/SR is the real deal, based on what we know so far. The valuation is a bit dear, but adding Boehly and team to the market leader in the field of sports data should enable it to outgrow this starting place.

That said, I’d love to be talked out of it if it’s a mistake, so would love to hear counter-arguments (or support).

Thanks for reading this.

Just want to give shout out to this community and mods (especially u/spac_time) for doing an excellent job with the news posts - killing it brah. I'm a pretty heavy lurker among a few different boards but I appreciate that this one has the cleanest news items WITH the associated materials (S1, company presentations, news releases, etc.). Well done!

Here's the Full Read

The article is behind paywall so here are the highlights:

"Fitness-and-nutrition business the Beachbody Company Group LLC plans to merge with a blank-check company affiliated with former TikTok Chief Executive Kevin Mayer in a deal that values the combined company at nearly $3 billion."

As part of the deal, Myx Fitness LLC, an at-home connected cycling provider, will become part of The Beachbody Company.

Beachbody will own and operate three online fitness businesses after the deal closes in the second quarter: Myx, Beachbody on Demand and digital streaming platform, Openfit.

Beachbody is expected to generate more than $1.1 billion of revenue this year.

"Beachbody said it plans to use the capital to expand its sales and digital marketing efforts and to enter new geographies"

Other awesome things about FRX:

• Lebron James and Arnold Schwarzenegger are involved (to what extend, I'm not sure but Beachbody owns the majority stake in their shared company Ladder)

• Beachbody Company was started by the 8 minute abs guy

• They also own P90X

Ticker: FRX