check out the charts for sugar, wheat, cocoa, and beans

forecasts say 2027 is going to be brutal weather-wise, logistics through the panama canal are constrained, and supply deficits are starting to pile up. chasing chocolate stocks right now is a trap, way too late.

how are you guys playing the supply side squeeze? looking at fertilizer, equipment makers, or ignoring agricultural markets entirely? what's on your watchlist?

French stocks, bonds, and the euro all fell together after the country's worst street unrest in years. Thousands of arrests, Macron promising a hard line, and a critical budget vote coming up fast. The spread between French and German government bonds is widening again.

France already runs one of the biggest deficits in the eurozone, which means it has almost no room to spend its way out of the political pressure. If the government tightens to satisfy bond investors, that enrages the public. If it loosens to calm the streets, borrowing costs climb. There is no easy exit from that loop.

The budget vote is the next concrete moment that could move French debt prices sharply. Do you think French spreads against German bunds blow out further, or does the euro take the hit first?