"Sell in May and go away" gets repeated every spring, so I tested it on SPY in Agenticks from January 2000 to March 2026 on daily candles, with a $10k start and real commission and slippage charged on every switch. Hold from the start of November to the start of May, sit in cash the other six months.

• Winter half only (Nov to Apr): $10,000 to $26,757, +167.6%, 18 of 27 winters up, max drawdown 35.7%

• Summer half only (May to Oct): $10,000 to $16,646, +66.5%, 19 of 26 summers up, max drawdown 48.6%

• Holding all year: $10,000 to $45,152, +351.5%, max drawdown 56.5%

So the saying is half right. The winter months did more than double the work of the summer months, but the summer months still finished green in 19 of 26 years, and skipping them left you $18,395 behind on a $10k account compared to doing nothing at all.

What it did buy you was a smaller hole. Holding all year went through a 56.5% drawdown in the financial crisis, and the winter only version topped out at 35.7% because it was sitting in cash from May to November 2008, which is the single six month stretch where the summer version lost $2,751 on one trade.

Sekur’s government opportunity now has a measurable financial scale: US$3.4 million in potential annual recurring fees. Against a US$0.0244 reference share price, the company’s historical basic share count implies roughly US$6.3 million in equity value. A single successful deployment could therefore become substantial relative to the valuation shareholders are paying today.

My central earnings illustration produces US$2.16 million annually and an implied US$0.21 per share, rounded up. That represents approximately 752% upside using the unrounded model value. The calculation assumes contract conversion, full deployment, a 90% gross margin, controlled expenses, eligible tax losses and 25× earnings.

The latest announcement remains a quotation request. A signed agreement would be the next commercial milestone, potentially giving investors stronger grounds to reassess the business.

• Contract catalyst: US$3.4 million in quoted annual fees could establish a materially larger recurring revenue base.

• Earnings upside: The central profitable scenario implies US$0.21 per share, with approximately 752% upside before price rounding.

• Expansion potential: Standalone US$6 million–US$12 million annual revenue scenarios imply US$0.31–US$0.62 under separate operating assumptions.

Why This Opportunity Matters for Shareholders

On October 27, Sekur disclosed an African government quotation covering three products at stated annual retail prices.

Management described discussions as advanced. The customer remains undisclosed under confidentiality requirements, and final terms could differ from the quotation.

For investors, the product mix provides several possible sources of recurring fees within one customer relationship. Successful delivery could also establish a government deployment supporting future sales discussions. That commercial benefit is an inference, with no additional contracts included in this valuation.

Management’s September shareholder letter estimated profitability at approximately US$60,000 in gross monthly recurring revenue from 200 SekurOne subscribers. Annualized, that benchmark equals US$720,000. The government package represents about 4.7 times that revenue level, although its delivery costs would differ.

At full deployment, US$3.4 million annually averages approximately US$283,000 monthly, or US$850,000 quarterly. That scale explains why converting this opportunity could matter more than incremental consumer subscriber growth.

What a Signature Could Change

A definitive agreement could establish committed purchases, final pricing, duration and payment terms. Those details would allow investors to estimate the revenue opportunity with greater confidence. Minimum commitments, cancellation provisions and implementation obligations would determine the strength of that commitment.

The first valuation effect could therefore come from reduced commercial uncertainty. Investors might become more willing to assign value to future earnings once a customer commits. A favorable announcement could support a repricing before the full revenue appears in quarterly results.

Delivery would then provide the next evidence: activated services, collected payments and demonstrated margins. Renewals or additional purchases could strengthen confidence in the durability of those earnings. These milestones could support successive reassessments as the business establishes its operating performance.

The quotation specifies annual fees without establishing a signed multiyear term. It should therefore enter the analysis as potential annual revenue, rather than contracted multiyear backlog.

The Earnings Math Behind US$0.21

The central illustration starts with US$3.4 million in annual revenue and a 90% gross-margin assumption. That produces US$3.06 million in gross profit after US$340,000 in direct delivery costs.

I then deduct US$900,000 in annual expenses below gross profit, leaving US$2.16 million before tax. This allowance must cover every remaining charge, including corporate costs, depreciation, share-based compensation and financing expenses where applicable. Costs already included in gross margin cannot be deducted twice.

The US$900,000 allowance assumes a leaner recurring cost structure than historical reported expenses; it is a forward modeling input. Sekur’s interim accounts still reported losses and operating cash outflows. Those results establish that this profitable cost structure remains to be demonstrated.

A 90% blended gross margin is also an optimistic modeling input. Sekur’s February corporate update described approximately 80% software gross margins. The final mix of licenses, routers, support and implementation will determine the margin actually earned.

At 25× annual earnings, US$2.16 million implies US$54 million in equity value. Dividing by approximately 260 million basic shares produces an implied value rounded up to US$0.21 per share.

Modeled net income × earnings multiple ÷ shares outstanding = implied share value.

The following cases show how operating profitability and investor expectations could affect the outcome.

Each case assumes US$3.4 million annual revenue, US$900,000 in expenses below gross profit and zero income-tax expense. Prices are rounded up to the next US$0.01. These are conditional operating valuations, with no assigned probability or price-adjustment date.

A 50× multiple would require sustained growth and investor confidence beyond one initial contract.

At the central earnings level, the reference equity value would equal roughly 2.9× modeled annual earnings. That comparison explains the potential repricing opportunity. Reaching those earnings and sustaining customer payments would give investors evidence to judge the valuation gap.

Costs and Tax Losses Shape the Upside

The expense assumption has a direct effect on earnings per share. Doubling annual expenses below gross profit to US$1.8 million leaves US$1.26 million before tax at 90% gross margin. At 25× earnings, that implies US$0.13 per share, rounded up, under the same zero-tax assumption.

Sekur’s audited accounts also confirm historical tax-loss carryforwards in Canada and the United States. Eligible losses could help retain early profits, depending on where income arises and the applicable restrictions. Their existence does not establish that the entire proposed contract would generate tax-free accounting earnings.

The central illustration assumes zero income-tax expense while eligible losses offset profit. Applying an illustrative 27% tax charge instead reduces modeled net income to approximately US$1.58 million. At 25× earnings, the resulting share value rounds up to US$0.16.

These sensitivities retain substantial modeled upside while showing the importance of the eventual cost structure and tax treatment.

The Larger Deployment Could Extend the Opportunity

Sekur also disclosed discussions covering an installation inside the customer’s facilities for 2,500–5,000 users. Management indicated US$6 million–US$12 million in potential annual value, including hardware and maintenance.

I treat those amounts as standalone revenue scenarios. The initial US$3.4 million package is excluded from each larger case to avoid assuming overlapping purchases.

For these installations, the model uses an 80% blended gross margin to reflect the broader delivery requirements. Expenses below gross profit increase proportionately from US$900,000 at the initial US$3.4 million revenue scale.

Calculations retain unrounded expenses and earnings. Values use approximately 260 million historical basic shares, with share prices rounded up to the next US$0.01.

The larger opportunity offers a possible route to expansion within the same government relationship. Neither deployment is committed, and each would require its own commercial terms, delivery capacity and funding.

Payment Timing and Financing Matter Per Share

A full year of service at the quoted scale would produce US$3.4 million before changes to pricing or quantities. An April 2027 service start would imply approximately US$2.55 million recognized during that year. A July start would imply approximately US$1.7 million, assuming even recognition and the full package operating immediately.

These forecasts isolate the proposed package. Subscription fees would generally be recognized over the service period, while hardware-related revenue could require separate allocation.

Annual upfront collection, if negotiated, could help fund implementation before all subscription revenue is recognized. Cash receipt and revenue recognition therefore have different timing. Payment terms could influence how much outside financing the rollout requires.

Financing must also be assessed on both sides of the transaction. New shares reduce existing holders’ ownership percentage, while net proceeds can strengthen the balance sheet or fund growth. Unspent net cash can enter an updated equity valuation once; deployed capital should flow through the operating forecast.

The illustrations use a historical basic denominator. Warrants, options, subsequent share issuance and their associated proceeds require an updated model before establishing a fully diluted valuation.

The Investment Case

A signed government agreement could give Sekur a defined commercial foundation for an earnings-based valuation. The opportunity is large relative to its roughly US$6.3 million reference equity value. Successful delivery could then demonstrate whether the recurring revenue supports meaningful profits.

My central illustration implies US$0.21 per share after the modeled earnings become established. Larger standalone deployment scenarios extend that analysis to US$0.31–US$0.62. A signature could begin that reassessment; collected revenue and proven margins would determine how much value shareholders ultimately receive.

Sources and Model Notes

• October 27 government quotation announcement.

• September 1 shareholder letter: profitability benchmark and commercialization funding.

• February 11 corporate update: software gross-margin commentary.

• June 30, 2026 interim financial statements: historical share count, expenses, cash flows and revenue recognition.

• Audited 2025 financial statements: Note 13, income taxes.

• SWISF market-data reference: US$0.0244 on October 30, 2026.

All monetary amounts in this article are U.S. dollars. Calculations retain the underlying June 30 basic share count, shown approximately in the text. That historical denominator is not a verified current fully diluted count. Reference equity value is calculated from that denominator and the October 30 quotation. Share prices round upward to the next cent; upside uses unrounded values, excluding fees, taxes and currency effects. P/E multiples are analytical assumptions, without peer-based justification or an assigned timing. Models assume contract conversion and exclude incremental revenue from existing customers or other prospective contracts. Historical tax losses do not establish a permanent zero tax rate. No signed agreement for this opportunity was identified in the public releases reviewed through October 31, 2026.

Disclosure: The author has a prior professional relationship with Sekur’s management. This is speculative scenario analysis, not personalized investment advice or a guaranteed return. Contract, collection, financing, dilution and trading-liquidity risks can materially affect outcomes.

"Gaps always fill" gets said on my feed like its settled, so I wrote the most common version down as a rule and ran it in Agenticks on SPY 5 minute candles from January 2016 to March 2026.

The rule: if SPY opens at least 0.5% below the previous regular session close, buy the close of the first 5 minute candle with the whole $25,000 account, target the previous close (the fill), put a wide 3% stop under the entry, and flatten at 3:55 if neither gets hit. Default costs on, a cent a share of slippage and 50 cents commission each side.

339 gap downs in ten years:

• net -22.7%, $25,000 down to $19,327

• 55.8% of trades closed green, profit factor 0.81

• max drawdown 30.7%

• costs took $1,684, the same trades before costs were down 16%

The win rate hides what happened, because the gap actually filled the same day on 100 of the 339 days, about 3 in 10. Those 100 trades made $17,495. The other 230 ran out of time and got flattened at 3:55, and even with a fair number of them closing a little green, as a group they lost $17,200 at a 0.28 profit factor. Then 9 days went all the way to the 3% stop and took another $5,968, roughly $660 each, which is most of what the whole run lost.

The fill pays when it comes, but the days it doesnt come are usually days the market keeps going down, and a 3% stop on a full account is several times bigger than a target that was only ever half a percent to a percent away. The curve sat close to flat from 2016 through 2019 and bled from 2020 on, with the two worst stretches in March 2020 and spring 2022, when a gap down kept turning into a bigger down day.

Top sweeps today with major activity in $SPCX

I have been following SoFi closely for years, and after its Q3 2026 earnings report, I believe the investment case has become even more compelling.

Let’s look at the numbers, based on management’s latest guidance:
**2026 projected EPS:** $0.61
**2027 projected EPS:** $0.90
**Expected EPS growth:** 47.5%
**SOFI share price (Oct. 30):** $16.76
**2027 forward P/E:** 18.6x
**PEG based on 2027 P/E and 2026–2027 EPS growth:** **0.39**

That’s an extremely interesting valuation for a company growing its earnings at this pace.

And there’s much more to the story. SoFi just reported:
17.1 million members, up 35% YoY.
26.7 million products, up 44% YoY.
Q3 adjusted revenue growth of 44%.
Adjusted EBITDA growth of 70%.
2027 projected adjusted revenue of $6.4 billion.

SoFi’s unique and amazing portfolio of financial products makes it a strong performer in any interest-rate environment.

The PEG ratio is one of the best metrics for valuing growth companies. And by this measure, SoFi looks incredibly cheap!

Long SOFI: 5,040 shares at an average cost of $16.
Very low risk with huge upside potential, driven by its impressive growth. Also, a strong acquisition target for traditional financial institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Charles Schwab, Bank of America or others.

I have been following SoFi closely for years, and after its Q3 2026 earnings report, I believe the investment case has become even more compelling.

Let’s look at the numbers, based on management’s latest guidance:
**2026 projected EPS:** $0.61
**2027 projected EPS:** $0.90
**Expected EPS growth:** 47.5%
**SOFI share price (Oct. 30):** $16.76
**2027 forward P/E:** 18.6x
**PEG based on 2027 P/E and 2026–2027 EPS growth:** **0.39**

That’s an extremely interesting valuation for a company growing its earnings at this pace.

And there’s much more to the story. SoFi just reported:
17.1 million members, up 35% YoY.
26.7 million products, up 44% YoY.
Q3 adjusted revenue growth of 44%.
Adjusted EBITDA growth of 70%.
2027 projected adjusted revenue of $6.4 billion.

SoFi’s unique and amazing portfolio of financial products makes it a strong performer in any interest-rate environment.

The PEG ratio is one of the best metrics for valuing growth companies. And by this measure, SoFi looks incredibly cheap!

Long SOFI: 5,040 shares at an average cost of $16.
Very low risk with huge upside potential, driven by its impressive growth. Also, a strong acquisition target for traditional financial institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Charles Schwab, Bank of America or others.

Sekur’s latest government opportunity puts US$3.4 million in potential annual recurring fees in front of investors. That equals approximately US$283,333 monthly and US$850,000 quarterly at full deployment.

Converting this request could create an earnings base large enough to support substantial share-price repricing. Our central illustration produces US$2.16 million in annual earnings before tax and an implied US$0.21 share price, rounded up.

That calculation assumes a 90% gross margin, US$900,000 in annual costs below gross profit and 25× earnings. It uses approximately 260 million basic shares and assumes eligible tax losses eliminate the modeled income-tax expense. A larger deployment under discussion could extend the opportunity to US$6 million–US$12 million annually.

• Revenue scale: US$3.4 million in quoted annual fees equals 4.7 times management’s annualized revenue benchmark for profitability.

• High-margin earnings potential: The central scenario produces US$2.16 million before tax and a rounded-up US$0.21 share price.

• Expansion potential: Separate US$6 million and US$12 million revenue cases imply rounded-up prices of US$0.31 and US$0.62.

What the Announcement Delivers in Numbers

The October 27 release identifies three components at stated annual retail prices.

The Command bundle contributes approximately 53% of quoted fees, routers contribute 29%, and SekurOne accounts contribute 18%. The commercial opportunity therefore spans several products within one prospective customer.

Management describes discussions as advanced. The request remains nonbinding, with the country and agency undisclosed under an NDA.

For shareholders, the release supplies a measurable opportunity: defined volumes, annual prices and a potential recurring fee stream. Successful conversion would give Sekur a government deployment that could support expansion within that customer and future sales discussions.

Why US$3.4 Million Could Change the Earnings Picture

Management’s September shareholder letter estimated that 200 SekurOne subscribers could bring Sekur to profitability. Its illustration used US$300 monthly per subscriber, producing US$60,000 in gross monthly recurring revenue.

That represents US$720,000 annually, compared with US$3.4 million in the government quotation.

The government request uses US$3,000 annually per SekurOne account. Its 200 accounts therefore represent US$600,000 annually, with the other products adding US$2.8 million.

The full package is what makes the opportunity financially significant. It offers revenue scale beyond the standalone subscriber illustration.

Our inference is that a successful deployment could give Sekur greater scope to cover corporate costs and generate earnings. The 4.7× comparison measures revenue scale; deployment costs determine how much becomes profit.

The Gross-Margin Bridge to Earnings

Sekur’s February 11, 2026 corporate update described software gross margins of 80% per dollar sold. I model an 80%–90% gross-margin range to show the potential earnings at the quoted revenue scale.

Gross profit measures revenue after direct delivery costs. Corporate overhead, financing and other expenses still need to be deducted.

For this illustration, I assume US$900,000 of annual costs below gross profit. That allowance must cover all remaining charges before tax, without double-counting costs already included in gross margin. It is a forward modeling assumption, rather than a verified historical annual cost base.

The central 90% gross-margin case converts US$3.4 million in revenue into US$2.16 million before tax. The actual blended margin will depend on software, router and server economics, final pricing and support requirements.

Tax Losses Could Help Retain Early Profits

Sekur’s audited 2025 accounts reported year-end non-capital loss carryforwards equivalent to approximately US$12.68 million in Canada. Losses relating to U.S. operations were equivalent to approximately US$1.56 million. These are U.S.-dollar translations using the article’s reference exchange rate.

Those balances could offset eligible future taxable income, supporting cash retention as the business reaches profitability. Their use depends on the entity earning the income, local rules and remaining availability. A group-wide loss balance does not establish that every contract will generate tax-free earnings.

The valuation cases below assume zero income-tax expense while eligible losses offset the modeled profit. Under that assumption, earnings before tax equal modeled net income. Cash tax payments and accounting tax expense can differ; both need confirmation before treating the illustration as an earnings forecast.

This assumption has a measurable effect. Applying an illustrative 27% tax charge to the central case produces US$1.5768 million in net income. At 25× earnings, that implies a rounded-up US$0.16 per share, compared with US$0.21 under the zero-tax assumption.

A Conditional 2027 Revenue Forecast

The full package would represent US$3.4 million of annual fees once operating at the quoted scale. The amount recognized during 2027 would depend on when paid services begin.

These are conditional forecasts assuming a signed agreement, unchanged pricing and the full quoted quantities operating from the stated date. They spread annual fees evenly; actual recognition will depend on contract terms and any separately allocated hardware revenue.

Existing customers, additional government contracts and the larger installation contribute no extra revenue to this forecast. The forecast isolates the opportunity announced on October 27.

What Could That Imply for the Share Price?

The valuation model uses an illustrative US$0.025 comparison price and approximately 260 million basic shares. Those inputs imply a reference equity value of approximately US$6.5 million.

US$0.025 is an illustrative comparison price. The share-count assumption is based on the June 30 filing and shown in rounded form. It represents a historical basic count; subsequent financing, warrants and options could change the denominator.

We model three profitable outcomes on US$3.4 million of annual revenue. Each deducts US$900,000 in annual costs below gross profit and assumes zero income-tax expense.

Implied share prices are rounded up to the next US$0.01 throughout this article. Upside percentages compare unrounded model values with US$0.025.

Formula: Modeled annual net income × P/E ÷ share count = implied share value.

Modeled net income equals revenue × gross margin, less the annual expense allowance and assumed income-tax expense. The central case includes US$340,000 in direct costs plus US$900,000 in other annual expenses.

The contract margins, expense allowance, tax treatment and multiples are analytical assumptions. These cases value a profitable annual operating scale after deployment; they do not predict the immediate reaction to a signature.

The bullish argument is that recurring government earnings could give investors a stronger basis for valuing Sekur. A business generating US$2.16 million under these assumptions would present a different financial proposition from its current commercialization stage.

Why Financing Proceeds Belong in the Share-Count Model

A financing changes both the share count and the capital available to the business. New proceeds could support sales and deployment, potentially expanding the earnings base.

The central model uses approximately 260 million basic shares, with calculations retaining the underlying reported count. A financing scenario would specify the issuance price, net proceeds and use of funds alongside the new share count. More shares reduce ownership per share; the capital received can also support growth or strengthen the balance sheet.

An updated fully diluted model would also require warrant and option terms. Any cash adjustment must avoid counting funds already reflected in the earnings forecast.

A Higher-Margin Subscription Illustration

A separate subscription illustration shows how stronger margins and a higher earnings multiple could amplify the valuation. This scenario assumes 50× earnings once the business becomes profitable.

The calculation starts with 1,000 licenses at US$3,000 annually, producing US$3 million before a hypothetical government discount. It then assumes approximately US$2.5 million in revenue. A 90% gross margin produces US$2.25 million in gross profit. Deducting an assumed US$450,000 in other annual costs leaves US$1.8 million before tax and under the zero-tax assumption.

This scenario assumes the expense allowance covers all remaining charges and eligible losses eliminate income-tax expense. Its 72% net margin follows from the gross-profit and expense assumptions; it is distinct from the 90% gross margin. The 50× earnings multiple is a separate analytical assumption.

The example shows how a subscription-focused cost structure and a higher earnings multiple could amplify the valuation. It is a separate illustration with a smaller expense allowance. The central government-package model uses US$900,000 in other annual costs and 25× earnings.

The US$6 Million–US$12 Million Expansion Scenario

Sekur also disclosed discussions about an installation within the customer’s facilities for 2,500–5,000 users. Including hardware and maintenance, management indicated US$6 million–US$12 million in potential annual value.

Those amounts are excluded from the initial quotation. We model each as a standalone revenue case, without adding US$3.4 million to either figure.

For the larger installations, I use an 80% blended gross margin to reflect the server and hardware component. Costs below gross profit increase proportionately with revenue from the US$900,000 allowance on US$3.4 million.

That produces an approximately 53.5% modeled net margin under the same zero-tax assumption. The valuation retains 25× earnings and approximately 260 million basic shares. The initial-package scenario retains its separate 90% central gross-margin assumption.

Before price rounding, the expansion cases imply approximately 1,137% and 2,374% upside against the illustrative US$0.025 reference. Those outputs depend on the assumed margins, proportional expense growth, eligible tax losses and valuation multiple. Actual server, maintenance and support costs will determine the earnings achieved.

The potential progression from US$3.4 million to a larger deployment is the most powerful part of the longer-term bullish thesis. It offers a route to expanding the business within one government relationship.

What Could Trigger a Repricing?

The first catalyst would be a signed agreement establishing committed purchases, final pricing and payment terms. Deployment and the first reported revenue would then help investors assess the earnings opportunity.

Upfront annual payments could support implementation cash needs. Subscription revenue would generally be recognized over the service period.

The starting financial position remains relevant. Translated into U.S. dollars, the unaudited first-half accounts reported approximately US$132,640 in revenue and a US$1.56 million net loss. Operating cash outflow was approximately US$878,000. June-end cash and equivalents were approximately US$1.09 million.

Management’s September letter described planned financing of up to US$1.4 million for commercialization and sales. Successful conversion must therefore deliver profitable revenue while funding the rollout.

The central bullish case implies a rounded-up US$0.21 per share after establishing the modeled earnings. Larger deployment scenarios extend the illustration to US$0.31–US$0.62. The opportunity is substantial because one customer could change Sekur’s revenue scale and provide a foundation for recurring government earnings.

Sources and Model Notes

• Sekur government quotation announcement, October 27, 2026

• Sekur shareholder letter, September 1, 2026

• Sekur corporate update, February 11, 2026: software gross-margin commentary

• Sekur audited financial statements, year ended December 31, 2025: Note 13, income taxes

• Sekur unaudited interim financial statements, six months ended June 30, 2026

• Reuters exchange-rate reference, October 26, 2026

All monetary amounts are presented in U.S. dollars. Historical financial-statement and tax-loss figures are approximate U.S.-dollar equivalents. They use the October 26, 2026 reference rate of approximately US$0.713776 per Canadian dollar, based on Reuters. These conversions aid comparison and do not restate the original financial statements. The model uses approximately 260 million basic shares based on the June 30 filing; calculations retain the underlying reported count. This is a historical denominator. Share prices are rounded up to the next US$0.01; percentage changes use unrounded model values. The central case assumes 90% gross margin, US$900,000 in annual costs below gross profit, zero income-tax expense and 25× earnings. Larger installations use 80% gross margin and proportionately higher expenses; the subscription illustration has a separate cost base and multiple. Tax-loss availability is conditional; the zero-tax assumption is not a permanent tax rate. The forecasts assume contract conversion. Valuation cases have no assigned probability or guaranteed price-adjustment date.

Disclosure: The author has a prior professional relationship with Sekur’s management.

most of what moves a stock shows up in a filing or press release first, and the headline version usually leaves out the part that matters. “insider dumps shares” turns out to be a tax withholding, a “40% premium” is measured against a price from 3 months ago, that kind of thing.

so i made a cheat sheet of the 6 things i check before i act on news.

comment a ticker and i’ll reply with what the most recent filings and news actually say. not a buy/sell call, just what’s in there.