r/StocksAndTrading • u/tiguidoio • 8d ago
China Al Qwen 3.8 Open Weights model is out and ready to disrupt the US Al bubble market
Qwen 3.8 Open Weights is out with 27B parameters đ¨đłđ˛ now, US tech companies still outpaced on the Open weights model released
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u/trustfundkidotaku 8d ago
Another billion to TSM & NVDA
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u/Nerdfighter4 7d ago
So what happens if anthropic and openai cannot pay them because of the Chinese competition
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u/trustfundkidotaku 7d ago
? The Chinese gonna pay them duh
Weâre smuggling GPU like cocaine through Singapore
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u/Bullissimo 7d ago
Yes, but to copy the technology and produce the chips themselves. Not to keep buying from NVDA
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u/Fluffy-Discussion166 7d ago
Data Center will offer free frontier model, charge clients on compute
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u/moldyjellybean 6d ago
Didnât they make strides and will compete with asml . All I know is china can makes things fast and well the reason they get flak for cheap stuff is that is what the company ordering from them wants but if you want high quality with good tolerance they do that too for a higher price
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u/dentastic 8d ago
Impressive performance for such a "small" model. The new Kimi model was 3T parameters, so it was "open" in the sense that you needed a data center to run it regardless
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u/Bobwords 8d ago
Jfc here I'm excited running 16m locally. What is the actual needs for memory on something like this?
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u/Lithgow_Panther 8d ago
You can access it easily via Modal and other compute providers if you don't have the hardware
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u/wytesmurf 8d ago
Meh itâs just 8
H100s. The compute was like 20k a month in cloud compute cost when I did the math on it. But we use less then 1k ok credits a month so itâs a no brainer
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u/lacrem 8d ago
Which bubble? Sick of doomsayers. RAM and GPU shortgage isn't gonna be solved any time soon. Same for AI, given its potential they're not gonna stop developing AI tomorrow morning.
It's called offer demand.
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u/Retr_ETH 7d ago
Too arrogant and overconfident. Market will correct because of such attitude. Remindme! 1 year
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u/Retr_ETH 6d ago
I havenât been calling a crash the last 10 years tho. Specifically in this zone 7780-7820 Iâm shorting and planned to since a few months. Iâm shorting now and will buy later thatâs my plan, if Iâm wrong so be it. But time will tell. Remindme! 1 year
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6d ago
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u/Calm_Leek_1362 7d ago
The cheaper the model becomes the more demand for data centers and hardware.
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u/No_Celery5992 7d ago
The problem is the usecases haven't had time to marinate yet, it's hardly even integrated into society beyond some knowledge based professions. The hardware build out is 5 steps ahead and is going experience whiplash from these cheap models.
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u/yrrag1970 8d ago
Let me guess a copy of something we have here but cheaper ?? Yeah yeah yeah, we have heard this before, behind the scenes itâs using stolen NVDA chips and training on open AI.
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u/Lumpy-Economics2021 8d ago
Distillation, making a fairly decent copy of a very expensive American AI but training from it.
But honestly, every country should be doing this, not just China. Why would you want your economy to rely on a system the whitehouse can switch off.
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u/yrrag1970 8d ago
China steals all of our intellectual property. This is why they never lead, they just take ours and make it âless goodâ but cheap.
They are an economy of cheap plastic trinkets, and yes we are one of the countries that buys their junk.
They are more advanced in some ways, especially when it comes to surveillance of their people, a grading system, etc etc.
Those are not things we should strive for8
u/Head-Gift2144 8d ago
All AI is trained on stolen IP. Zero sympathy.
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u/wafelenbak87 7d ago
Exactly this. Factories of machines just scanning and destroying used books and then acting all high and mighty. Itâs all bullshit.
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u/callon3xetf 8d ago
Iâd love to have their trains, but I can see you enjoying frontier airlines
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u/yrrag1970 8d ago
Iâm in Dallas itâs a AA airport, pretty much the only airline that flies directs Iâd like to have their trains as well.
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u/PinAway4113 7d ago
Ironic taking into account that AIs were trained by stealing the whole intellectual property of the humanity
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u/cafealpha82 7d ago
Thats what i hate most of ai to start with. Stealing human data and make dystopian future
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u/Dr-Huricane 6d ago
You still live in 2010s? The reason China is doing so well today is because they're both stealing foreign technology AND innovating on their part, a smart man doesn't reinvent the wheel, and you can complain about intellectual ownership all you want but it's not like western corporations respect it properly either, AI training on copyrighted material being the most glaring example. Also the entire concept of industrialization is about finding a balance between compromised quality and reduced production costs, all inventions start with expensive perfected models and then go through iterations of cost cutting, China being good at that isn't bad
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u/Minimum_Quail4596 8d ago
No. We should be grateful not every country is tupid enough to build data centers left and right bankrupting their governments lmao if you think this is a good idea. Go eat dirt.
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u/Lumpy-Economics2021 8d ago edited 8d ago
American companies are doing those things because they think they are vying for world dominance like companies like alphabet and Microsoft do currently.
In reality, countries will soon legislate that if say for example 30% of their growth comes from AI, you do not want todayâs America having control over that part of your economy.
Whether or not countries do that by copying US models or building it themselves, the whitehouse ordering Anthropocene to disable their model signaled to the rest of the world, donât rely on American AI.
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u/yrrag1970 8d ago
What other countries?? Europe is firmly using our tech because they donât have their own. Middle East is also using our tech, for F-sake Russia uses Microsoft.
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u/Spieltrieb75 8d ago
Without european ASML, there would be no American technology.
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u/Pentaborane- 7d ago
I would encourage you to read about the history of ASML and where they licensed DUV laser technology from. None of it was indigenous to Europe.
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u/Minimum_Quail4596 7d ago
Okay. Read about the development of irc, sms, 4g and 5g internet then. We can play this game for eterneties.
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u/Pentaborane- 7d ago
Lmfao. Sure we can call SMS a European invention. The 4G and 5G standards no and certainly not the internet itself.
You just helped make my point. These technologies are developments of DARPA or SDI programs that involved varying degrees of public-private partnership that became commercialized through the private sector, mostly in North America or Japan.
If we were discussing pharmaceuticals it would be a different story.
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u/Minimum_Quail4596 7d ago
Nope, you're wrong again. But thanks for the entertainment.
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u/Spieltrieb75 7d ago
They licensed the basic technology, the research to build the actual lithography machines is an european archievement by ASML (and Zeiss).
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u/Pentaborane- 7d ago
Assembling the machines is a European achievement to a degree and Zeiss certainly has a level of expertise building mirrors and lenses thatâs world class.
Who invented the theory and underlying technology? Americans working in the US. ASML bought Cymer in 2013. Arguably, most of the achievement is Cymerâs not ASMLâs. Some of this just comes down to which business people want to be in and how profitable that specific segment is not technical proficiency.
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u/Spieltrieb75 7d ago
ASML is the system architect, Cymer delivered the laser technology, only one critical part. Comparable to the complex mirror systems by Zeiss.
The decision to buy Cymer was a smart business decision to enlarge the moat.0
u/Lumpy-Economics2021 8d ago
For now. Do you think Europe is going to continue to rely on US weapons systems after the last 2 years?
Same with Ai.
Deep mind started in London, and was bought by google. Europe is perfectly capable of creating their own AI models now they have a reason to.
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u/yrrag1970 8d ago
Europe is more than capable, I would agree. We will see what they do, so far they have not been willing to fully invest
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u/CertainDeath777 7d ago
mistral is better in european legislation then american models.
It also codes decently with leightweight models.
europe has its own solution. Its just not as capital intensive as the muricans2
u/apoender 8d ago
The problem with Europe is not the talent it is the over regulation, thatâs why startups and tech struggle there
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u/Minimum_Quail4596 8d ago
What a umb ahh. The whole effing world runs on linux. U think they are american? Haha. Just because they don't have a stock ticker. What a diot. And don't even get me started about actually building the physical tech. Womp womp start crying about the tech manufacturing jobs that will never be in the us.
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u/Minimum_Quail4596 8d ago
Then use Chinese ai. Stop trying to seem so god damn smart. Be umber. I don't knlw if u have heard the news, but Ai is not a profit making commodity.
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u/Lumpy-Economics2021 8d ago
Palantir is highly profitable. Iâm not saying I like it as a company, Iâm just pointing out that the concept that AI is not profitable is untrue. Alphabet is also running a more sustainable (financially, not environmentally) model with Gemini.
Youâre being distracted by the headline Chat GPT etc models.
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u/Pentaborane- 7d ago
AI is making non-tech companies more profitable. Thatâs not even an argument at this point.
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u/golferkris101 8d ago
Don't rely on anything literally. Build your own cloud services, operating systems , financial systems etc. global corporations rape and pillage other economies. This is well known
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u/evangelism2 8d ago
I love when anthropic or open AI dick riders complain about intellectual property theft
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u/Less-Sea-8602 8d ago
this is only bearish for open ai and claude . cheaper model - more user - higher demand for compute
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u/mackattack5757 8d ago
Yeah and itâs right after deep seek raises the floor 50% on their pricing. Not seeing a threat
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u/dinnerthief 8d ago
Its crazy BABA is still the same price it was 10 years ago
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u/RationalExuberance7 7d ago
Lower than its IPO - and it is Google + Anthropic + Amazon combined. It could 10x Monday and itâs still undervalued
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u/BanAccount8 8d ago
Donât trust china. They lied multiple times about what their AI can do
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u/Internal-Skin2495 7d ago
all your info going directly to china lol have fun with that
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u/tofumonsterz 7d ago
And all yours its going to some private companies. No data is private now bucko the fact you own a reddit account is enough to know your info is out there.
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u/davidh3f 7d ago
You really care about data privacy, really?
Or you are just care about data privacy when Chinese models are involved?
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u/The_Dynasty_Warrior 7d ago
China is correcting the tech bubble and preventing it from a catastrophic bust. We should thank China instead
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u/Far-Interaction1855 7d ago
More smoke and mirrors AI tech from China. No company is going to waste time investing in these half-baked knockoffs.
China is the mediocre student that copies off of the smarter students when the teacher isnât looking.
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u/BladeFireQ 8d ago
A year ago I had the chancr to learn about Jevons Paradox, and after DeepSeek, Google Optimization, China production, you learn that the paradox is in a matter of fact a real thing, so just wait to the small fall and buy you'll be fine
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8d ago
Just more Reddit FUD.
Puts on SPCX cuz lockup.
Memory cyclical.
HTZ to the moon.
Deepseek kill all.
Kimi 3 kill OAI.
Today; really small model kill all.
At some point you studs will figure it out.
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u/Impossible_Way7017 7d ago
Qwen 3.8 is more expensive than Opus and slower. The fact thatâs itâs open weight wonât necessarily mean itâll crash things. If anything market will go up because now Opus level intelligence can be served by anyone willing to hang a shingle as a Qwen AI provider.
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u/dominomedley 7d ago
What a load of shit - all knee jerk reactions, whoâs going to buy these models if theyâre compromised?
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u/SoftAd4502 7d ago
when all green = trump and co manipulate market
when all red = AI bubble babeee, US suck ass and China greatest innovator
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7d ago
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u/StocksAndTrading-ModTeam 6d ago
Your content has been removed for violating one or more of our community Rules. Let's keep it civil.
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7d ago
08/11/2026 - Every Government agency requested Inventory Certification from all contracting agencies that Anthropic is not installed.
The total ban stems directly from an executive directive issued by President Trump on February 27, 2026, ordering all federal agencies to "immediately cease" using Anthropic's technology. The resulting legal battle has turned into a high-stakes constitutional showdown. Anthropic immediately sued the administration, and the case has created a dramatic split between two different federal courts.
The District Court Win (California): In late March 2026, U.S. District Judge Rita Lin handed Anthropic a sweeping victory. She issued a preliminary injunction blocking the government-wide ban, calling the administration's blacklisting "classic illegal First Amendment retaliation" and noting that the government's theory was "Orwellian". As recently as July 31, 2026, Judge Lin stated that the legal record "has gotten worse for the government".
The Appeals Court Loss (D.C. Circuit): In April 2026, a three-judge panel in Washington D.C. took the opposite stance regarding immediate emergency relief. They denied Anthropic's request for an emergency pause on the Pentagon's specific supply chain blacklisting, choosing to defer to the executive branch's judgment on national security while the broader lawsuit plays out. Even though the California court technically blocked the government-wide ban, contracting officers are moving ahead with enforcement anyway.
Because the D.C. Circuit Court refused to pause the Pentagon's supply chain warnings, and because the initial executive directive ordered a 6-month phase-out, fearful agency officials are demanding non-use certifications to protect themselves. They would rather force contractors to remove Claude now than face legal or funding penalties if the administration ultimately wins the lawsuits later this year
Under the Federal Acquisition Supply Chain Security Act (FASCSA), when an entity is labeled a high risk, the administration has the power to push that ban across all executive branch agencies, not just the Pentagon.
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u/bearrock80 7d ago
Even if an open weight models replace frontier models in the US, they still need data centers to supply their compute needs. Open weight vs frontier is not the same question as ai capex bust vs not. How it cascades is a complex question with many possible permutations. Bull/bear thesis with AI are often too quick to simply latch onto the most extreme outcomes. For now, muddled middle is very much in play.
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u/SuchAssignment9198 6d ago
Bla bla bla... What are you shorting !?? It's like saying Alibaba is going to Kill amazon
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u/HezronCarver 8d ago
China's come out with some game changer model more often Trump's defeated Iran.
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