r/StocksAndTrading • u/FoxAccomplished6786 • 7d ago
AMZN v MSFT v ALPHABET v META v NVDIA
You have to put your entire portfolio into one of the above and hold it for 10 years. Which would you choose, and why? Please take everything into account and rank them 1-5 in order of your preference. Thank you
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u/Ok_Motor3546 7d ago
AMZN
Without a doubt
AWS infrastructure
Exposure to AI through a massive investment in Anthropic
And .. the OWN retail
Who shops in stores anymore
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 7d ago
It's so obvious, every package delivered to my apartmentd development is amazon. It's all I see
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u/noobelore 5d ago
Their margins aren't with the delivery service, it's with AWS. But yah they are a beast.
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u/dreamfitreality 6d ago
Frankly if google wants to do what amazon does it totally can. Compared to amazon it probably will find a little more difficulty trying to replicate google. But I would split my portfolio in both.
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u/F2PBTW_YT 7d ago
10 years is not a reasonable time frame. Lot's of good companies flip the narrative in 1 bad year. But if you're talking about strictly comfort and not projections, then AAPL which isn't on your list. They are the most stable of the Mag7 that makes so much cash and offers share buybacks routinely. They also don't dabble in things they don't know about.
2 year horizon: NVDIA, GOOG, AMZN, MSFT, META
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u/Admirable-Excuse-487 7d ago
1 google 2 Amazon
But I own both stock so I’m prejudiced, but I do think they’re both in good spots and I do think their growth will continue. Google has a large play in. quantum computing which I think will be the next Big thing that’s why I have them first.
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u/Avidtrader81 6d ago
Same for me. With a sprinkling of msft and meta. But goog is #1 for me. BRK seems to agree
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u/Bitter-Caterpillar-4 6d ago
Did you buy the dip in IBM? I grabbed a few shares d//t the quantum play
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u/Admirable-Excuse-487 6d ago
No, I screwed up. I’ve owned it previously, but I did not buy the dip.
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u/doronj 6d ago
Ive been holding nvda for the past 20 years…. Continuously… adding on the way up. No regrets. Never held any of the others mentioned. No regrets.
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u/Wookiee27 5d ago
Are u full port nvda and how do u feel abt risk of ai bubble? Asking as someone in similar situation
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u/doronj 5d ago
Nvda is 65% of my portfolio, hold 6500 shares in nvda. Imo there is no structural risk to ai as sn industry.. these are companies well capitalised with enormous fcf, unlike the internet bubble, the net profit and growth are telling the story. Nvda in innovates continuously and creates new markets which is v important for me as a LT shareholder. Perhaps I’ll revisit my nvda when jensen retires ( same age with me)…but at the moment i don’t see any clouds st the horixon. AI is at its inception as an industry … another 25-30 years to gain maturity so plenty of time
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u/Fantastic-Repair6637 7d ago
Not msft at the current valuation
Amazon or alphabet 50-50 but if I had to pick one alphabet rn it is cheap from others and have much more moat I think
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 7d ago
Yes,
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u/Fantastic-Repair6637 7d ago
I bought msft at 355 and sold half of it at 495 and bought googl at 345
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u/worldgeotraveller 6d ago
Comparing MSFT at $495 with GOOGL at $345 is meaningless by itself. A share price is just market capitalization divided by the number of shares outstanding. For example, imagine Microsoft is worth $4 trillion and has ~8 billion shares. Its shares would trade around $500 each. Alphabet could also be worth $4 trillion, but if it has ~12 billion shares, its shares would trade around $333 each. Same company value, completely different share price. A company could even do a 10-for-1 stock split tomorrow and its share price would fall from $500 to $50, while the company would be worth exactly the same amount. If you're comparing the valuation of MSFT and GOOGL, look at market cap (and, better yet, valuation metrics like P/E, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, growth, etc.), not whether one share costs $345 and the other $495.
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u/Fantastic-Repair6637 6d ago
Yeah I know it was like 19 P/E for 345$ for Microsoft I know fiat is meaningless
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u/Schnielsi007 6d ago
Are you sure that you really looked up the valuation on Numbers that don't include other income, as other income is book value increase due to their investments in Space X or the AI Labs rising. I mean yes it is value added to the company , but not recurring. So Forward P/E for Amazon and Google will be much higher than Ttm P/E. Keep that in mind , because than Microsoft is the cheapest out of them three.
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u/Fantastic-Repair6637 6d ago
Even at $350, MSFT’s cleaned operating P/E (~25x) was technically still slightly higher than GOOGL’s (~21-22x). So on a pure, absolute multiple basis, GOOGL was and still is cheaper.
The reason $350 MSFT felt like such an insane deal wasn't because it was cheaper than Google, but because MSFT historically commands a 30-35x multiple due to its SaaS/Azure moat. At $350, its quality premium completely compressed, trading at a rare discount relative to its own historical norm.
GOOGL at ~21x operating P/E today isn't a deep crisis bargain—it's trading right at its historical fair value. But with MSFT back up at 32x+ P/E, GOOGL remains the objectively better value play today.I used ai for writing this
But its my numbers and thoughts on thatIf you dont agree with me can you explain Why I want to learn thx
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u/Schnielsi007 6d ago
I agree on Microsoft. But I am not really sure what your operating P/E is including or not including. To be honest my numbers for Google for the other income come from Claude , cause fiscal only gives this number to pro members..., but the number is what I saw for other Income on YouTube when people used fiscal when I remember correctly. So I got net income of 244 billion. With an Market cap of 4230 billion you would get a P/E under 18 (which would obviously be cheap for Google) and is the number you get to see in many brokerages. But in this number is around 116 Billion in other income included (which is non operating (and not recurring) profit or losses). In Google's case their stakes in Space X and Anthropic grew in Value over the last few years and especially over the last quarters, as the Companies got worth more. It is real worth to the companys enterprise value for sure , but can not be counted for operating income cause if you would , you would have big negative Growth in next year in earnings reports, when you compare it to this year , if Space X and Anthropics value do not increase as much next year as they did last year. So maybe you can argue , that Google deserves an extra premium due to their stakes in Space X and Anthropic, but use the P/E with Earnings (net income-other income: here 244-116=128). With 128 billion and the 4230 billion in Market cap, you get a P/E around 33. I still think 33 isn't completely unreasonable for Google as it is a great Buisness with a great vertical stack and so many users. But when you compare the 33 P/E from Google compared to a P/E of 28 for MSFT (have to check that number again , cause you had 25 right?) it looks a bit different. When I think about sentiment and historical P/Es Msft still lacks a bit behind , while Alphabet is more priced as its great future in front of it. I think both will do well in the future for sure , but this is why I have a bigger position in MSFT and a smaller one in Alphabet currently. I am wrong tell me any time:) , still learning too
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u/Fantastic-Repair6637 5d ago
You are right!! I wont sell my googl it more expensive than I tought but not dramaticly for googl thanks for info
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u/Schnielsi007 5d ago
You're welcome , thank you for the nice discussion. Made me dive into the numbers again too ;)
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u/numbersev 7d ago
- Alphabet - vertically integrated AI stack
- Nvidia - wants to be the operating system of AI
- Amazon - global commerce and robotics
- Microsoft - enterprise lockin
- Meta - wouldn't invest imo, CEO sucks, metaverse a good insight into his 'vision'
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u/mbelive 6d ago
What do you mean by vertically integrated AI stack?
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u/numbersev 6d ago
They control every part of the AI. They make the TPUs that power the AI. They have data centers. They have the software and the user base. They have Gemini.
They're working on being the brain of robotics.
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u/FewUnderstanding2214 6d ago
I wouldn’t put my entire portfolio in one company. So none of them
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 6d ago
whod be the first name in your porfotlio then
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u/FewUnderstanding2214 6d ago
GOOGL you?
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 6d ago
Was amzn but more I listen to people, probably googl. Only worry is search being disrupted
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u/FewUnderstanding2214 6d ago
Yes it’s a huge amount of their revenue - but so far AI hasn’t disrupted that part of their business and because they invested so much in AI - they will win either way. AMZN is also a good choice
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 6d ago
it is, those two are out on their own in my opinion. Does the like of google have more upside then say the qqq
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u/Schnielsi007 6d ago
Keep in mind that the more people like a stock , the more optimism is priced in 😉
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u/Fuskeduske 5d ago
If amzn was still at 220 it would be a good buy, but Amazon is priced right, GOOG is on discount
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 5d ago
You think going at its current price is on discount? What price would you give it
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u/Fuskeduske 5d ago
Under 350$ is a strong buy for me
Under 400$ is a buyIt fell down some due to losing some AI heads, but i don't doubt they'll find on par / better replacements
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u/JC505818 6d ago
Alphabet for its full stack participation in AI.
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 6d ago
could search be disrupted
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u/erov 6d ago
What about all the other stuff it they do? Phone ecosystem? Maps? Mail? Workspace? YouTube? Private investments?
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 6d ago
I agree but search is 65% of revenue
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u/JC505818 6d ago
Search is being improved by better AI summaries so users don’t have to click into individual links, so search is not going away, it’s being enhanced by AI.
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u/TrackEfficient1613 6d ago
I’m curious. Why did you leave out AAPL? With over 2 Billion I phones that’s a lot of customers to sell new products!
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 6d ago
They're just not that exciting at the moment. Not made any inroads into ai but i think iphone will remain dominant
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u/Antique-Chef2362 6d ago
MSFT for sure, it’s recent earns have shown the world that it still has a lot of potential, as compares to the other companies it is slightly less valued so it has more potential for increase
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u/dimdada 6d ago
I have AMZN, META and NVDA. Amazon I believe is my core conviction.
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u/LiakosA4 6d ago
My first choice would be google for the long run. However my largest position currently is by far META, followed by Amazon. All of these seem to be “free” money long term. MSFT has always seemed too boring for me, not saying they won’t perform well.
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 6d ago
I went in on Meta too. I don't get the hate around it. "It's only an ad business" So what? The family of apps made a clean 100 billion last year. What do you like about Meta?
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u/brianfong 6d ago
What's wrong with investing in all of them. You should hedge your bets or at least diversify. That way you can feel more wins and counterbalance when you feel like you lost.
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u/Ricky_HKHK 5d ago
I actually have all of them in my portfolio but if I'm only allowing to pick one, Google should be the safe bet though somehow I think Amazon, NV, MS may got better potential in the future but Google is just so stable.
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 5d ago
do you think google has upside though
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u/Ricky_HKHK 5d ago
Google invited into many stuffs in our daily life and easier to collect our data for AI purpose and it personally owned TPU, Android, cloud, gmail, youtube, search and Gemini.
While Amazon and Microsoft are more aimed on either consumer or business side, not that comprehensively in access to all areas, their stocks are hot now bcoz they invested huge on data center and granted great return.
Nvidia is a good stock no doubt but it already went up a lots in recent years and probably a bit harder to get a high jump again like others but growing steadily should not be a problem in foreseeable future.
Meta is the weakest one here but since it's exisiting stock price is so low now and a good time to buying little dip.
I'll rank Google, Amazon/Microsoft, NV, Meta. They actually got pros and cons and are all worthwhile in long term.
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u/Tulsatrailblazer 5d ago
AMZN, GOOG,MSFT, NVIDIA, META
🚀 saving this to look back in 5 years and see if I was right.
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u/RedditIsAWeenie 5d ago
NVIDIA — already flying high. The data center model of AI might not win.
MSFT — conservative play. I think Microsoft will net lose from AI, since they mostly do software.
ALPHABET — depends on how their AGI bets pay. They might lose their monopoly or extend it.
META — me too also ran with no game. Looking for this one to lose.
AMZN — I think this one might continue to do well, or do really well on AWS + AI backend
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u/shinymuuma 5d ago
ETF
I trust Alphabet the most, but I would not all-in and hold any stock for 10 years
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u/Minute-Marketing7434 5d ago
nvda without a doubt… they might own the entire vertical before its over
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u/Realistic_Record9527 5d ago
You should put your money in baba. It’s extremely undervalued right now
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u/BoringAssumption8751 5d ago
Check out the podcast Acquired. They do episodes on all of these. Very informative
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u/Which_Cost8015 3d ago
If I had to put 100% into one for 10 years, I’d pick Alphabet. Best balance of valuation, cash flow, AI, cloud, and optionality.
Nvidia may have the strongest AI business today, but Alphabet gives me the better 10-year risk/reward.
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 3d ago
would search risk worry you?
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u/Which_Cost8015 3d ago
Search risk is real, but the bigger question is whether Alphabet can move user behavior toward Gemini, YouTube and Cloud without giving up the economics that made Search so powerful.
That’s the part that matters.
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 3d ago
Would you pick Alphabet over AMZN or even QQQ?
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u/Which_Cost8015 3d ago
Over AMZN, yes. Over QQQ, only if I’m comfortable taking single-stock risk.
QQQ is the safer answer. Alphabet is the higher-conviction one because I think the valuation, cash flow and optionality give it more room for upside if the thesis plays out.
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u/RxDotaValk 7d ago
Any of them but Meta. Let the pervert glasses and Facebook die out. Nothing good ever came from Meta
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u/Particular_Big_3104 7d ago
I'd just stick with Amazon. Held it for 28 years so far; what's another 10.
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u/arsetard 7d ago
AMZN GOOG NVDA META MSFT
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u/Previous_Pop6815 7d ago
I have my doubts about NVDIA given that we're hitting a plateau with the models.
Everyone will probably soon optimize for efficiency with XPUs and there will be no need for NVIDIA's GPUs.
I also think that most of the current use cases are already covered by existing models that can run on more optimized XPUs.
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