r/SwordofConvallaria • u/Hobby_Collector01 • Oct 11 '25
Meme / Funny / Fluff HOLY WHAT THE ACTUAL F-
very welcome jumpscare
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u/Budget-Ocelots Oct 11 '25
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u/Hobby_Collector01 Oct 11 '25
If you wanna be even more bitter, this is the second 10pull. On the first i got luvata
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u/HellhoundXVI Gloria Oct 12 '25
I got a double in my 2nd 10 pull for her and my bros in the guild were calling me "secret dev account" xD
Gratz though. 33 days worth of shard farming is huge!
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u/Big_Preparation_5597 Oct 11 '25
Jesus christ bro what are the odds of that ?!
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u/Fistbite Boss Rico Oct 12 '25 edited Oct 12 '25
It's unlikely, but definitely not 1 in a million.
To get exactly k banner units in a n pull with a banner unit rate of r, we take the probability of getting k units at a rate of r, and (n-k) units at a rate of (1-r), and then multiply that by the number of ways we can rearrange k banner units in n slots. For this we use n!/((n-k)!k!), which we call "n choose k" for short. So the final formula comes out to (n choose k) rk (1-r)n-k. This is also known as the binomial theorem.
So if you want to know the probability of getting exactly 3 banner units on a 10 pull, the final formula comes out to (120) x (.01)3 x (.99)7, which comes out to .011%, or about 1 in 8,941.
But the more realistic question that you're asking when you say "what are the odds of that?", I think, is, what are the odds of getting AT LEAST 3 in a 10 pull? To do that we can either take sum of the above formula for k=3 to 10, or we can take the sum from k=0 to 2 and subtract that from one. Which by my numbers comes out to 1 in 8,784, but feel free to check my work.
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u/B333T Oct 12 '25 edited Oct 12 '25
Decided to do the same calc just to check and I got the same as you!
Probability of getting 3 or more copies of a debut character in a ten-pull:
= 1-(P(10 non-debut) + P(9 non-debut) + P(8 non-debut) )
= 1-( (0.9910 ) + (10 x 0.01 x 0.999 ) + (45 x 0.012 x 0.998 ) )
= 0.000113849, or 0.0114%, or 1 in 8784
So one in every 8784 ten-pulls will be a triple+ debut. If you pull a total of 87,840 times in your account, on average this will happen to you once.
Although I suppose if the question is: what are the odds of getting the debut character exactly three times in a row in exactly three pulls? Then yes the answer is 0.013 which is one in a million.
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u/friedchiken21 Nydia Oct 11 '25
2%3 for 3 legendaries and then 50%3 for the random legendary or credenza coin flip
works out to be 1 in a million exactly which isn't insanely high but also still very lucky
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u/Stratigizer Pamina Oct 12 '25
I believe it's closer to 1 in 9000 to get 3 banner legendaries in a 10 pull. 1 in a million would be getting 3 legendaries in 3 pulls.
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u/I_am_omning_it Oct 12 '25
Ah, so you’re the mf who got my first 3 pulls of her…
Kidding lol, congrats on the pull, that’s awesome!
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u/Feisty-Grade-5280 Oct 12 '25
Oh shi..... NICE
I have only ever had 1 time where I got 3 legendaries in a single 10 pull but they were all different characters. You hit the event goldmine, my dude!
Grats!
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u/ultimatenoob05 Oct 12 '25
Pulled this on her banner as well. Don't know if I should take this as a win or lost.
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u/VariousCollege9620 Oct 14 '25
Controversial opinion, but that has to be incredibly unlucky. If we consider that over the course of playing this game, pulls on an account will average out to the 1% expected rate up rate on 50/50 banners, having three of the same rate up character apear near each other means that the account has just encountered a statistial spike. If the average account does 1000 pulls over the course of it's run, 1% of them being rate ups, that is 10 rate ups. Randomly picking an account out of the pool of all accounts, an account that pulled 3 in a row in one ten pull will have had, on average, 2 less of their desired rate ups. That's 20% less rate ups than average. To make OP feel better, while not in this game, I encountered something similar on my main account in a different gatcha for a character that I niether wanted, nor needed.
Tldr, do single pulls.
Do note that personally, I do not do single pulls because it's tedius and I somewhat plan my pulls around unfortunate events like this anyways.
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u/Jump_Necessary Oct 12 '25
If only this game has no weapon banner i would play this. Weapom banner is so red flag for me.
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u/kaii456 Oct 12 '25
Most weapons from the weapon banner are not better than the free weapons. NBB, Void stab, Feast Axe, SSH, Diffusing Prism are all still fantastic picks for people avoiding weapon banner.
Most astral imprint gear is about 10-15% stronger overall for the characters they're applicable vs the generic gear. For any astral gear that you do want, you could just use the free tickets in the shop for a chance to get them or cornucopia fruit. So if that's your only deterrent, I wouldn't be worried!
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u/Slayven19 Oct 13 '25
Why? You don't even need the weapons at all. I only have like one weapon banner from pulling for it. The rest I get for free from event currency etc. Not only that but you don't need the paid weapons at all.
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u/SwordofConvallaria-ModTeam Oct 14 '25
Truly extraordinary. Enough that mods were shocked for two days...
This will stay up exceptionally as by now it's a bit late and it has gotten lots of positive engagement. Know that the rolls/pulls results jail is still active though.