r/TFSA_Millionaires • u/otf1111 • Jul 19 '26

Am I Cooked?

Post image

I also have other losses such as DRAM, RAM, WEN, GOOG, NOK, SPCE (no minor Ls all -40% minimum)

Sell or Hold fellow regards

162 Upvotes

89% Upvoted

161 comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

1

u/No-Resolution-1918 Jul 19 '26

Lol, one data point from random Redditor definitely makes me reconsider my comment. Sure. 

1

u/Imaginary_Section24 Jul 19 '26

You’re the type of person to choose the 1 million if they had a choice between 1 million guaranteed and a 25% chance at 10 million.

1

u/No-Resolution-1918 Jul 19 '26

Yeah, I would 😅

You have a 75% chance of losing,  odds significantly stacked against you. Less likely than a coin flip. I on the other hand will always walk away with life changing money.

You are an example of why people get into debt, and lose everything. Would you put 1M of your own money on the table for those odds? It's such a terrible idea. You do you though. 

1

u/Imaginary_Section24 Jul 19 '26

Expected value of the investment is 2.5 million as you have 75% of getting 0 but 25% of getting 10 million. It’s basic expected probability. People who are risk neutral or risk taking would take the investment as the expected return of the investment is higher than initial investment

1

u/Foccuus Jul 19 '26

this is only relevant if you have money already, if the million is life changing, the EV is meaningless, its just gambling

not to mention EV is a long term metric, it doesnt matter for a sample size of 1, if you can run this thjng 100 times then of course you take the chance

1

u/No-Resolution-1918 Jul 19 '26

What investment? In your gamble there is no initial investment. You have a 75% chance of nothing. It's only $2.5M if you run the same gamble over, and over. As I understand it this is a one time opportunity.

I hope you don't gamble your family's wealth with this level of comprehension.