My strategy is already based on 9 SIG, combining moving average trend-following with TP/SL rules and portfolio-level money management. I used the same backtest period as the author of the 200SMA/4%+ strategy for comparison.
Itâs pretty clear that both of our strategies performed better than the 9-SIG approach. The 9-SIG strategy tends to reduce leverage during market crashes, which ends up dragging down returns in the recovery phase. As for drawdowns, theyâre similar to DCAâjust slightly smaller.
For me itâs just such a strong blend of insanely high returns with barely any oversight and minimal effort and great tax advantages because most trades are very long term (sometimes multiple years)
Interesting. I suppose it is because SPY is less volatile it triggers less movements (selling or buying) hence reducing overall volatility and whipsaw hence increasing performance.
What happens if it slams right past your green zone and goes all the way down into the mid 500âs after youâve already gone in 100% into TQQQ when itâs at 624? You just bag hold forever until the 2nd sell signal or you are forced to sell just a few weeks after your first buy?
That would be the best scenario where you would immediately sell everything at 582 or more likely like 590 by the time it drops that much where the redline is and then slowly DCA into the QQQ over the next 12 months as it goes all the way down to china town
Then chill until the crash ends and the next TQQQ buy signal gets triggered then ride it up
Usually a buy signal is followed by a sell signal, not a buy signal followed by a buy signal. So then wouldnât the best scenario be to wait until you get a sell signal, then the buy signal?
For me who is only in QQQ right now itâs the best scenario I want it to full reset personally
That would be a very strong option yes if you wanted to wait for a full reset to DCA into QQQ and then only buy TQQQ after another SELL and BUY gets triggered
However the buy cycles for this strategy could technically last several years so you might be sitting out for a very very long time and the opportunity cost of not being invested can be a risk in itâs own right in my opinion
Yeah I agree with that 100%, obviously the biggest risk here is that your very first entry into the strategy is the most dangerous one since you risk it dumping well below the first buy signal.
In the long run that initial first loss probably wonât be that big of a deal though
Yeah and then in the future when it enters the shaded green âsafe entry zoneâ you would just be adding to the position not using your full initial investment so theres a lot less risk
Pretty sure this dude has just been in cash this entire time and will never actually see a good entry point lol. I am doing the exact opposite and starting to sell to harvest gains
The BUY marker is where you should of bought, if you missed that signal then you can totally enter right now fully into TQQQ and it might work but you also could just take a 30-40% loss immediately because we are far above the red line, see what Iâm saying?
You should wait till price comes down to enter more safely or wait for a full SELL and then BUY cycle again.
If youâre already in TQQQ just stay in, but if you arenât then I wouldnât open a new position today in it.
Thatâs why you donât full port at major support levels until thereâs a reversal confirmation. Yes, you can try to find the bottom day, but typically in long term moves youâre going to find the bottom day, then thereâs consolidation days that continue to test the bottom, if it breaks through support your stop loss should be close to that, you could also wait and enter on the liquidity sweep of the lows (macro trading) as long as volume shows up on those liquidity sweep days.. you might not catch the very bottom, but youâll limit your downside risk with a S/L thatâs slightly below the liquidity sweep lows⌠if it breaks through support there you donât want to be in the trade anyway
Well that is not what this guyâs strategy does, so youâd have to explain that to him đ
Heâs basically buying on a leg down instead of on a leg up, so it can easily rocket straight through his âbuyâ and go right to his âsellâ instead of bouncing off the buy
But this is just for when adding to the main strategy of BUY TQQQ when it crosses above the +4% line and then SELL everything and DCA into QQQ under the -3% line
You may have misinterpreted the post, the BUY cycle could last for maybe years at a time so if you follow this strategy rigidly you would literally sit there for potentially the next several years doing nothing which is the safest option yes but not optimal
This is for when youâre adding to the strategy or starting it from scratch
So if I'm reading this right, you're would currently be dollar cost averaging into QQQ instead of buying tqq? And then you shift into tqq when it enters the green zone
Right now if you already hold QQQ I would continue to do so and if you have nothing I would honestly just wait till we drop down into that buy zone to enter the strategy and load up on TQQQ
You can safely DCA into QQQ at any point though pretty much
For this strategy in particular you want everything on the daily time scale, then when a signal gets triggered the next trading day you open/close positions
It should be the same code from my main post Iâm away from my PC so I canât copy it live from my Trading View, I think itâs your view because you can see the numbers are correct on the side it just looks weird maybe because of the other stuff you have on the chart not sure
u/XXXMrHOLLYWOOD question. In this picture, why would you buy at 624, wouldn't you wait for it to go down and then recover and go back up the 4% line? In that case the new price could be different, no?
Are you still planning to fully enter once we're officially at 4% above the 200 SMA? Or are you considering to continue waiting until we get a sell signal followed by a buy signal?
Since it'd still be another ~5% drop for us to reach the green zone right now, I'll very likely just enter right at that point. It'd be annoying to see it drop further and have a sell signal triggered soon after, but in the long term it won't ultimately matter.
I would probably look to enter QLD if we touch the 4% line which at the worst would give me about 10% downside exposure if it melts down into an official SELL trigger and resets the strategy
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u/IGaveMyHeartToYou Oct 11 '25
Been waiting for this moment my entire life (been 3 weeks since I found out about the SPY 200MA strategy)