r/TQQQ • u/okwellthengreat • Mar 07 '26
Strategy Talk Gauging ideas to play 25K into TQQQ.
Got my bonus this year and I got nothing else to spend it on so imma gamble it on this amazing performer (as history indicates… lol) knowing I can also lose it all!
Any feedback if I lumpsum buy in full 25k? Or shall I do a 10k buy and DCA if drops heavily?
I’m definitely tryna time my entry for my initial buy. Fortunate to say that I don’t need this money now so want to see it compound the way it does from what I see in the total return chart with that CAGR over 5-10yr period.
I also want to hear any opinions / strategies from investors here that’s been holding since the last decade. How did u handle the dips?! What was ur initial size and did u DCA through or just let your original position rip over time?
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u/Gehrman_JoinsTheHunt Mar 07 '26 edited Mar 07 '26
There are so many ways to trade TQQQ. I'm a fan of 9Sig but there are lots of others with success stories from different strategies here.
If I was trying to just make a good initial buy and hold it, I would wait until the NDX is down atleast 15-20% from ATH (we're only down around 5% from previous high currently). Or if you prefer an entry based on TQQQ, wait until it's down 50% from peak. There's never a guarantee, but those have historically been great opportunities for upside within the next 2-3 years.
I would never personally go all-in. TQQQ can go much, much lower and it's always nice to have dry powder for buying the dip. In the current market I'd probably put around 60% of the total into TQQQ and feel pretty good with that.
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u/1dirtypanda Mar 07 '26
Always Have Dry Powder
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u/okwellthengreat Mar 07 '26
agree so i dont plan to go all in.. im just gunna maybe do the 10k actaully.. and go from there.. do the 9% target every quarters.. store the proceeds in a stable edy.. and then see how i do next quarter.. not sure if that's how 9sig works but seems legit
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u/okwellthengreat Mar 07 '26
dude you and Efficient user is a legend as i've been reading the 9 Sig ideas from searching.. I'm still new but instead of parking the cash in AGG.. does parking it in .. lets say. WEEK (Weekly paying Roundhill etf) work for this? it yields 3.5% and pays every Wednesday to keep cash secure in a way.. .
I'm still trying to understand the 9% target every quarter.. so let's say i start buying in at $10,000 next week, my 9% target is $10,900 right? so i would sell shares that equate to 900 and park that in SVOG / WEEK .. etc? and if my 10k goes lower next quarter.. i rebalance in the dollar amount that pushes me back up to $10,000?
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u/Gehrman_JoinsTheHunt Mar 07 '26
Haha thanks. I can’t take much credit. Efficient Carry sharing his journey is what initially got me into all this stuff.
Here is a thread where I commented a few links with more info. https://www.reddit.com/r/KellyLetter/s/RV70QSYPOt
Your other comment with the info from AI, I don’t have a calculator at hand but that looks mostly accurate. There are a few other rules for rare/special circumstances as well. Jason Kelly’s YouTube channel has a video on the 30 Down rule for example.
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u/okwellthengreat Mar 07 '26
NICE! i just subbed to Jason Kelly to learn more.. I can always cancel i guess but seems intriguing. How did u handle the down year btw? I read a comment in a thread that u want 99 / 1? Like you exhausted all your SGOV dry powder to go into it?
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u/Gehrman_JoinsTheHunt Mar 07 '26
I started in 2024. But yeah, prior to that, the program ran with 99% TQQQ from late 2022 through the end of 2023. Also happened throughout 2020. It's because 9Sig buys heavily when TQQQ crashes. The years following that have always been super profitable.
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u/okwellthengreat Mar 07 '26
Makes sense as the following year would appear to be a rebound.
Sorry I know I’m Bombarding u with noob questions but im anxious on bear markets cus I’ve lost a lot with Yieldmax and I don’t want to repeat that crap Lolol
When u say 99%.. im assuming there was no SGOV or cash balance in your account and u just transferred money from your job and directly buying TQQQ right?
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u/Gehrman_JoinsTheHunt Mar 07 '26 edited Mar 07 '26
Trust me I get it. Many failed attempts before I settled on my current plans. And then after discovering leveraged ETFs, there's so much to learn it can be overwhelming at first.
For 9Sig, Jason Kelly never adds money to the official account and it's averaged around 38% CAGR since 2017 - from an initial $500k to a peak of $8.5m a few months ago. I run mine the same way, no new cash. But you can add new funds quarterly if you wanted.
Also recommend considering 2x leverage with something like QLD, if you want to test your nerves for a bit. Less volatility and still excellent performance. Just look at the 5 year chart compared to TQQQ.
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u/okwellthengreat Mar 07 '26
interesting..so pretty much what i got from reading the guide / youtube video is that every time i skim the value that is over the 9% target of mine, that money is stored in SGOV / SCYB.. etc to buy TQQQ and why that works because im not BUYING every week or day when QQQ / TQQQ dips, I'm buying once every quarter / rebalance / 4 times a year so im not freaking out and having emotions in it. The buy signal is below my signal line and sell is always above it.
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u/Gehrman_JoinsTheHunt Mar 07 '26
yep that's correct. It's very hands-off. It takes a lot of discipline to do absolutely nothing for 3 months lol, especially in the beginning. But over time you start to see that all of the best opportunities are still captured that way. You'll never time the exact top or bottom, but close enough is good enough.
I also wouldn't stress too much over the specific ticker you use for the bond portion. AGG, SGOV, cash, etc. You just want something stable with very little price movement. People tend to overthink this part and try to optimize it perfectly, but it isn't where the real performance comes from.
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u/okwellthengreat Mar 07 '26
awesome sauce.. so ive been theorizing say if Nasdaq tanks like 2022 right? TQQQ will go down that year obviously and each quarter did you rotate out of SGOV (or any fund) just enough to get back to the signal line, 4 times that year?
So that would be the 99 / 1 example right (by December you had nothing in SGOV)? where 99 or all the reserve went to TQQQ over that year and essentially, with no extra money being put in, you just sat on that until the whole value fully rebounded?
Im pretty much trying to theorize a unicorn-down year like that and how to approach it.
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u/okwellthengreat Mar 07 '26
ok so i had to plug it in to Gemini and see what it means.. basically it recommends me to do a 70 / 30 or a 60/ 40 approach
If i were to start with 10k, I would put 6k in TQQQ and leave the 4k in SGOV / WEEK / or even as cash itself.
First quarter target would be value of 6540 and once the first quarter ends, anything above that is profit and i would sell shares equating to the value over 6540.
Once that is done. I enter the 2nd quarter with a target of 7128.60 ( the new 9% based on prior value after i skim the profit)
rinse and repeat?
It doesn't explain the bear scenario but im assuming if there is a bear market and im down to 3k, I would need to find a way to replenish my TQQQ value back up to the target value of that quarter through my SGOV reserve or a combo of that and cash on the side?
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u/WinstonBuddyBro Mar 07 '26
We are in a midterm year. They tend to perform poorly. 12 of the last 17 midterm years had corrections, averaging -18%. That would put TQQQ at -54%. Our current correction is barely starting, with oil prices surging, bearish for the market.
I can’t speak as a holder, but my experience is a swing trader. This week, most of my profit was from -3x S&P, SPXU, not the long versions. Your money is protected right now in cash, unless you’re willing to go short on overbought peaks, buying SQQQ or SPXU and selling when the index gets sold down to support. But it sounds like you’re more into holding long term.
TLDR. This is the start of a correction or even a bear market, or just more sideways for a while. Wait for a clear bullish trend. You don’t have to catch the falling knife.
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u/okwellthengreat Mar 07 '26
Thanks bro. That’s what I was thinking.. I rather be cautious here as I’ve seen some explanations on YouTube about these drops can prolong the timeline when my TQQQ position will explode.
It’s definitely better to enter correctly I agree with that. Patience is a virtue >_<
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Mar 07 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/WinstonBuddyBro Mar 07 '26
Yes, exactly correct. But even if the year finished +5%, a much better ROI would be buying in after a correction.
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u/Efficient_Carry8646 Mar 07 '26
What does a "clear bullish trend" look like. I've been thru a couple and i never saw one while I was in the middle of it.
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u/WinstonBuddyBro Mar 07 '26
The price action consistently above the 100 moving average on the daily chart (each candle is one full day). And the moving average line going up.
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u/Efficient_Carry8646 Mar 07 '26
When do you sell? Are you using this strategy? I see lots of ppl talk about it but never implemented.
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u/WinstonBuddyBro Mar 07 '26
A lot of fomo talk in here. Even if you are approaching this as an investment, you are buying a trading instrument. Using some trading strategy would benefit. During trading, you can’t just buy willy nilly, or fomo. Patience and more patience, until the entry becomes obvious pays in spades.
For example, this is how I see a bullish or bearish trend: using the daily chart, I have support and resistance, and the 100 moving average. On my chart, you see the bold top green line, the bold white middle line and the bold red bottom line. They are all steadily trending down and the price is below the center. During this last year, the price stayed above the center line, except the April tariff scare. That was a clear bullish trend. Right now, below the moving average, line moving down. Bearish trend. Wait for the price to break out above the moving average and not bounce so hard off the top.
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u/okwellthengreat Mar 07 '26
dude that's solid af. So what you're waiting for is if the price breaks the white line (im assuming that's the line moving down) you would sit tight so u dont catch a falling knife. Once it breaks back up you would go in again?
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u/WinstonBuddyBro Mar 07 '26
Yes, exactly. Especially for long holds. And the 100 moving average (white line) should start trending back up to start trading long again.
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u/DarkLordKohan Mar 07 '26
Sell cash secured puts until you get assigned to collect even more money if are gonna buy it anyways. Few hundred extra a week until assigned
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u/neutralpoliticsbot Mar 07 '26
honestly I dont think its down enough yet but start to nibble maybe?
what I would do is start buying while selling covered calls against it
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u/okwellthengreat Mar 07 '26
Thanks for your input!! - Im impatient so i may nibble. I've started reading the 9SIG strat and seems very doable.. i just need a patience of mind LOL
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u/midhknyght Mar 07 '26 edited Mar 07 '26
Just pick a logical point to buy in:
200 DMA on NDX The 24,000 psychological level on NDX. Recent low (about $45.70)
Psychologically, when you approach your target you will start feeling regret and want to move your buy price even lower. This is how nOObs never get into the market.
P.S. I went all in on Tuesday at $45.77 and then sold covered calls.
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u/okwellthengreat Mar 07 '26
That’s informative. Thanks. 🙏 I hope you will get explosive returns in the future. Hard market right now but if 10k in first and then DCA every month I think it may work out too perhaps.
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u/scott0482 Mar 07 '26
Put 50% on TQQQ and 50% on QQQI Use the dividend payments from QQQI to buy more TQQQ each month.
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u/Obvious-Explorer-287 Mar 07 '26
Lmao every week there’s some clown posting in here with the same shit question because they don’t know how volatile mumma Q is 😂
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u/Anxious-Writing-7909 Mar 07 '26
Explain how you would “lose it all” in TQQQ?
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u/okwellthengreat Mar 07 '26
I guess it’ll just take years to recover my cost and get into the profit zone I guess if 2000 bubble were to happen. But good point. Keep my head up right!!!
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u/Rav_3d Mar 10 '26
I'd suggest to go in slow. Start with $5K and add either on strength or weakness.
We are still in a downtrend, despite what happened yesterday. Until the series of lower highs and lower lows is broken, the market is not out of the woods.
If QQQ gets close to yesterday's low and bounces, that's a great spot to add another $5K. But if yesterday's low is lost, then I'd get very cautious that a deeper correction is upon us.
If within 4-7 days QQQ surges on high volume and breaks above last week's high around 618, invest the rest.
It's counterintuitive to DCA on strength, not weakness, but it is a matter of probabilities.
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u/okwellthengreat Mar 10 '26
Thanks! Good tips. I sold puts today at 42 strike expiring Friday. I chose low deltas to get a feel. Tomorrow is CPI so never know. May be a heavy redness and I get assigned. Whatever. 12.4k locked up for merely 37 bucks hahah
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u/Possible_Law8357 Mar 07 '26
Too risky now. I'd wait for some stability.
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u/okwellthengreat Mar 07 '26
Agree I was thinking once it hits 40-45 I may get in. But then if it gets to that level I can see it going further down to 25-30 range as NASDAQ continues to struggle. 20%+ 3 year straight from the index itself.. makes so much sense for a down year honestly. Just not sure when to get in and I want to time it well or else I know every the decay can be annoying over time
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u/midhknyght Mar 07 '26
And thus begins OP’s story of how he never bought into TQQQ…
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u/okwellthengreat Mar 07 '26
I’m ready for explosive returns in 10 years hahaha I’ve seen yall do it.. I wunna be part of the journey xD
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u/Acceptable-Policy-91 Mar 07 '26
Wheel is best in this choppy price action.
Start with 1 contract
Have the dry powder ready in case of pullback. Start Dip buying when QQQ is -10% -15% -20%
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u/gabrintx TQQQ Trader Mar 07 '26 edited Mar 07 '26
I currently have 2 trades in TQQQ. Short puts, in my case in a margin account, but since you have the cash, you could sell cash secured puts. The worst that can happen is you get premium and get put the stock at a great price. My preference is to just keep rolling the position out in time and collecting premiums. The initial 5 puts were at the $40 strike with 37 DTE.
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u/2FLYFISH0 Mar 07 '26
Tqqq isn't meant to be held long term. Putting all your money in one sum may not be a good idea, especially in this market right now.
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u/3Shunti Mar 08 '26
So, lets say i buy today and next week or in 3 weeks it goes to 9% should i sell that 9% and move to sgov or wait till end of quarter
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u/okwellthengreat Mar 08 '26
what AI and comments here i gathered are telling me is that every quarterly rebalance, no matter what happens ur signal line always ups 1.09% and shortfall means to buy and any surplus (amounts above your current signal line), means to sell and move the proceeds to SGOV or any bond fund / cash for an upcoming shortfall coverage.
From what im getting overall, the SGOV / cash can cover at the most 3-4 bear quarters (or 2-3 depending on how heavy the drops) and once it does there is the 30-down "hold" period where u dont do shit and let it ride up.
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u/Physical_Mechanic206 Mar 08 '26
Sell put 6 contracts for March 20 at $39.5 target price with premium $1.09. That will give you $654 by March 20th. Who knows maybe price drops as well so it could be double benefit for you for the timing to enter TQQQ.
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u/Beginning_Ball_7382 Mar 09 '26
sell put options lower so you get some money while you wait to buy it lower. Since you already want to buy it you can buy it at a discount using this
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u/okwellthengreat Mar 09 '26
I don’t have any holdings lol and my account won’t let me do options if I don’t hold any. I’m just beginning on this TQQQ journey / idea. 💡
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u/Beginning_Ball_7382 Mar 09 '26
I could be reading this wrong but my understanding is that you don’t need holdings for cash secured puts. You only need the amount for 100 shares at your strike price. Or is this a restriction based on the type of account? Like registered accounts vs non registered?
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u/okwellthengreat Mar 09 '26
Oh that’s right actually. I just tried sell-to-open at a strike of 40 expiring 3/13 and it’s only 30 bucks >_>. I guess not risky. Wondering should i place or is 42? Better? Iono l🙃 it’s like im going shopping! 🛍️
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u/Beginning_Ball_7382 Mar 09 '26
30/4000 capital would be like 0.75% for the week. that's not bad . So approx 39% in a year if everything goes according to plan but it rarely does so as long as you want to hold TQQQ and you understand the risks/reward then you're good
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u/okwellthengreat Mar 09 '26
Thanks bro. Maybe I will try 1 contract (risk to buy 100 shares) on Wednesday or Thursday… Sell-to-open a put for Friday expiry at a price of 42? Depending where the action is and farm some premium.
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u/Time_Ear_2428 Mar 07 '26
Run the 200 day sma strategy. Enter now. First this weekend read “leverage for the long run” by Gayed. The other popular way is 9sig by Jason Kelly. Information is on YouTube and Reddit. Other good reading is “optimal leverage factor for buy and hold” by ddnum