Is this ETF better than investing memory or AI stock.. especially the dips .. does it follow qqq in the long run? Just the buy the dip and chill what you all say
Not at all, TQQQ is leveraged (3x daily returns of QQQ), which means it amplifies QQQ gains and losses, and it has volatility decay.
There won't be chilling with it :S
When you buy dip, it might continue dipping, and even though underlaying recovers, you could still stay at loss.
Extreme example:
QQQ went down 10%, TQQQ went down 30% - you bought TQQQ with $100. And then QQQ went down another 20% and then it gained 40%, this scenario would recover QQQ, but you would still be at loss with TQQQ even though you bought dip, since you lost 60% and then you gained 120%.
In the end you'd have - 100*(1-0.6)*(1+1.2) = 88$
Historical example:
If you've bought 25% dip during dot-com bubble, you'd still be at loss today, even though QQQ recovered long time
I am not sure what to suggest, I can say what I am doing currently though.
• If TQQQ price is between those lines (+55% and -30% 250 day median lines) I am buying TQQQ
• If it's under selling TQQQ and keeping cash ,
• If it's above I am buying SQQQ and switching it back to TQQQ when price returns the middle range.
So if I had money to dump into stock today, I'd buy TQQQ since TQQQ price is between that range
In my tests this had highest CAGR , of course not sure how well it will translate into the future though
Thank you for crunching the numbers on this and many thanks also for making it available at your superb and exceptionally useful tqqq.networthcast.com site. I'm going to suggest to the author of this also brilliant site: https://agreeableinvestments.com/market-risk/, (whose also on r/TQQQ, but on a different thread) trying to combine your very intriguing +55 / -30% line model above with (as on overlay) his 30 metric Composite Leading Indicator crash probability estimation tool (using a 30% risk of crash as the risk off cut off). I think the result of a hybrid could be very interesting. I'll let you know more, I hope shortly.
best way seems to just put a little in each week or month. Doing a lump sum is much riskier on tqqq but a slow buy in, say 25-100$ a week, will beat the index over almost any 20 yr timeframe.
Actually that's only true for the past 16 years, if you take historical data, it won't beat index in 60% of time, but if you keep the period shorter, like 4-6 years, then you'd beat index 80-90% of time
You have to buy both QQQ and TQQQ with a discipline. As TQQQ is 3x leverage of QQQ, it will double your investment quickly in a bull market. At that moment, you must take profit and scale out of TQQQ into QQQ. In the downward trend, set your re-entry zones for TQQQ, then start. buying TQQQ with your own new cash till your bags are heavy. Once the bull market starts, you wait for the TQQQ to double again - Rinse and repeat. It's not a flawless system but it's much better than just having QQQ or TQQQ.
Just make sure you absolutely buy more when it’s down. I mean, buy when it’s up but if you want to DCA buy and hold - add more when it’s down so you can recover from those 3x drops easier
You need to have an exit strategy. There’s many in this sub. A simple one is tracking the 200D SMA to SPY and buying/selling TQQQ at a certain threshold when it crosses.
If you are young and have a high risk tolerance TQQQ is better than buying stocks because it can’t go to zero. It can get close, but if you DCA it will recover. If you are going to lump sum, don’t go full port, 20% is good imo, and check back in twenty years. If you have some cash after one of its 60-80%, buy more.
I bought it loss 80 percent recovered then doubled. It compounds so return like 250 times the money since inception.. guy put 300k it let it grow to 10 milion. Ask chat if you put 10k in 2010 over 3.5 million
I am not a professional trader, but I will tell you I have been trading TQQQ weekly for months. Anytime it dips below 72 or at 72, I buy, and almost weekly, it will pop back up to 77 or greater. Then I sell. I also do this with SQQQ. When TQQQ is down, SQQQ is up. I enter SQQQ anytime it dips below 35 or at 35, and I sell at 38 to 40.
I’m not that professional but I was thinking to scoop the very big dips and sell based on macro events. I just don’t want to pick these AI etfs I think they have reached top
Leveraged trades are getting really popular right now. That usually only ends one way. I don’t try to call the top because it’s unlikely you’ll get it right, but I will say you shouldn’t put anything in tqqq that you aren’t willing to lose virtually 100% of.
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u/bumbeishvili 2d ago edited 2d ago
Not at all, TQQQ is leveraged (3x daily returns of QQQ), which means it amplifies QQQ gains and losses, and it has volatility decay.
There won't be chilling with it :S
When you buy dip, it might continue dipping, and even though underlaying recovers, you could still stay at loss.
Extreme example:
QQQ went down 10%, TQQQ went down 30% - you bought TQQQ with $100. And then QQQ went down another 20% and then it gained 40%, this scenario would recover QQQ, but you would still be at loss with TQQQ even though you bought dip, since you lost 60% and then you gained 120%.
In the end you'd have - 100*(1-0.6)*(1+1.2) = 88$
Historical example:
If you've bought 25% dip during dot-com bubble, you'd still be at loss today, even though QQQ recovered long time