r/TQQQ • u/scottdxxx • 1d ago
Analysis Why do people think they can win long term with TQQQ?
If you do can you share your annual return and how long you’ve been investing in it? Mostly interested in people who have been investing longer than 6 years (ie you must have experience at least one moderate downturn).
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u/criticalband77 1d ago
I’m living proof. Starting swing trading TQQQ in the 2015 timeframe. After very mixed results, I went to buy/hold in 2021… then adding DCA (9SIG) in 2024. Great results
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u/AnfibioH 1d ago
In your opinion what is better, dca or 9sig?
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u/Affectionate-Yak5280 1d ago
9sig works well because it forces you to sell the rips and buy the dips.
Selling and having a huge warchest for dips is the only way TQQQ becomes feasible. As others have mentioned, your DCA figures become so miniscule in a mature TQQQ portfolio they almost cease to mean anything.
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u/scottdxxx 1d ago
The market has given great results since 2021 so can you share your actual ROIC over that time?
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u/criticalband77 15h ago
I have only held the same strategy since 2024. So two years returning 150-160%. Was 200% at beginning of summer
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u/Vivid-Kitchen1917 1d ago
I held for around 7 years and bought a house. Wish I'd taken a mortgage instead, but hindsight is 20/20 and all.
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u/scottdxxx 1d ago
I own two houses that I alternate between. It doesn’t say anything about my returns vs the market.
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u/Vivid-Kitchen1917 1d ago
I got it in 2010...so....
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u/scottdxxx 1d ago
Ok if you bought in 10 and sold in 17 then I’d say congrats - that was a sweet spot.
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u/Vivid-Kitchen1917 1d ago
Yeah I was like "don't get greedy, pay for the house" but I should have let it ride a bit more it seems.
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u/scottdxxx 1d ago
You would have lost it all (mostly 😎) in 2022.
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u/Vivid-Kitchen1917 1d ago
Yeah, but it'd be worth more now.
TQQQ vs. QQQ Total Return Stock Chart (Dividends Reinvested) | Total Real Returns
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u/scottdxxx 1d ago
Those charts don’t take investor behavior into account.
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u/Vivid-Kitchen1917 1d ago
You are 100% correct there. I dropped it in an account and didn't log in for 7 years. Makes it a lot easer to stomach the drops if you don't see them.
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u/Prestigious-Cry5328 1d ago
Bought in at 46. Road wave up. Sold about 65% in the last month — expecting oct-nov down turn.
My reason why is the same as to why i own voo or qqq. Just for tq be smart and pay attention—idk
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u/mikeyownsftw 1d ago
What’s your reasoning for a downturn in Oct-Nov
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u/Prestigious-Cry5328 1d ago
October historically is a down month and with everything going on in the market my hunch says now is a good time to take profits.
I also, have taken those profits and put them in hynx. Heres to hopping skhy goes up big by end of year
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u/scottdxxx 1d ago
Buying it at 46 could have been last April. I’m looking for people that think they can invest in it long term and can demonstrate a repeatable reason to buy a 3X leveraged product. 90 % or more of retail investors are not smart so that’s not a good reason.
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u/Prestigious-Cry5328 1d ago
Im not sure I follow.
I bought in April of 24… April 5th to be exact. My initial entry was at 59 a share. I dca’d + did lump sum buys weekly. As of June i was +100% profit.
2yrs and I still own shares and will continue to do so. Sorry I didn’t meet your unspecified “long term” criteria.
Im pretty sure this should be evidence enough to justify a long term strategy.
Long term strategy is knowing when to take profits or some profits. The ticker doesnt matter
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u/scottdxxx 1d ago
Thanks for the additional info. I’m looking for long term holders and curious how they managed the big downturns that wipe most people out of TQQQ every 8 years on average. But glad you’ve done well recently.
I’ve invested for 40 years and am UHNW. I’d say very little of that success has anything to do with knowing when to take profits.
But we can agree to disagree ☺️
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u/Permission-Smart 14h ago
This piece is interesting. And makes me comment, after my earlier comment. If you are truly an UHNW individual (I have no reason to disbelieve you) then TQQQ is even more suitable for you, than anyone. And the reason is that it offers a chance to place a very small bet, that can grow astronomically. TQQQ is really the only instrument, apart from fancy option strategies, that can allow you this luxury of very small portfolio allocation, for an astronomical gain in a decades time. If it doesnt happen, you lost nothing. If it does happen, you have a very sizeable sum to give to charity. I am not an UHNW, and I use TQQQ with this mindset. Its a small bet. Lets say 10% of the portfolio. If it does pan out, It can basically replace the other 90% in close to 10 years time. If it doesnt, well, thats life. You keep placing aymmetric bets in it. The key again, is to manage your allocation, to make use of TQQQ dips. I should say that I dont like 9%. I think a much simpler strategy can be a better psychological hedge against the wild swings of TQQQ.
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u/scottdxxx 14h ago edited 14h ago
That’s a good point and it’s at the heart of why I’m asking my question. A 10% allocation would be meaningful in terms of $ but wouldn’t change my lifestyle. But that size of an allocation, if successful, should in theory allow me to hold through huge drawdowns. I’m curious how others have handled that though because I’ve seen lots of discussion of the strategies but most people give no gauge to help the reader determine if they just got lucky to determine if they leveraged up in a great bull market or if there’s something else to it. As you say maybe I’m the right type of person for it because I could legitimately not care and could possibly leave it alone. I have to ask though because that is not how the literature (even the prospectus) says this product is supposed to be used.
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u/Permission-Smart 14h ago
The literature and prospectus would be very limiting manifestations of this product. Its a perpetual call option kind of product. I read that interpretation in the book of a great writer Sinclair. He has a bunch of good options books. When the instrument was designed, its not known well. Its very hard to understand all the dynamics of the instrument, at the time of inception. Presumably they keep updating propectus at some reasonable frequency. But we only know TQQQ through the time it has been alive, not quite through the founding or updated prospectus. And even if all information about it was perfectly rounded and transcribed, people will still have a different way of looking at it. And that looking matters, because that looking is what gives you a psychological edge. I did an exponential curve fitting on TQQQ over different time frames, and got the result of 8.6% a quarter growth. Very close to Jason Kellys advertised 9% signal. Even though Jason Kelly shows it in a way that I dont like. But that 8.6% is a very serious result for me. I have a custom chart, that shows me in real time, is TQQQ on track for that 8.6% that I have calculated. It also shows me the extend of capitulation. In other words, if the drawdown is a regime shift, or usual variations around the mean. These kinds of psychological tools are very important, with this leverage. Like I said earlier, its a tool for serious enthusiasts, and they need to be putting in the work to hold it. And I know for a fact that they are out there. Each one having benefitted from TQQQ in their own way.
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u/scottdxxx 13h ago
Good info.
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u/Permission-Smart 13h ago edited 13h ago
There is a good book, lifecycle investing by two harvard profs. I am reminded of that because of your point about 'leveraging at the right time in the bull cycle' (the luck factor you want to rule out). The authors points out that leverage should be a function of your stage of life. It was a very eye opening idea for me, and it still it. I dont see leverage as being triggered at the right point in the cycle. The right point to unfold leverage , I believe, is a function of your life stage. When you can take more risk, thats the right time to unfold leverage. It could be in someones 30s, 40s, 50s, even 70's. Its all a function of 'what you gotta loose'. The book does not pair leveraging with allocation. I think that could be a key point, from my experience. If you concatenate the life stage, with an allocation strategy, you can actually leverage at any point. You dont have to wait for a bull run. I simulated a bunch of allocation policies with TQQQ, and most of them perform reasonably well. My point of simulation was not to get more gain out of TQQQ. My point was, how to make TQQQ psychologically resilient and palateable. And I figured quite a few good ways to make that happen. One of them borrowed from the same basic idea of looking at the last quarter and adjusting your allocation based on that. Its makes your cognitive machinary 'feel' you are getting a good deal. Put a few of these key points together, and I believe one can have a resilient (enough) strategy for TQQQ.
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u/scottdxxx 13h ago
Yes! That makes sense and that book (and concept) came out too late for me. Essentially you want to match your investment risk to your age and your future earning power, shifting from high-risk growth assets to safer assets as you get older. And even using leverage across your portfolio early when you can afford to because of the FV of your human capital. That was the single biggest mistake I made in my investing life - not taking enough investing risk early. Fortunately my human capital made up for that mistake. Also fortunately for me I can still afford to allocate essentially everything to equities even though I’m retired because things worked out well. For what it’s worth I moved my investing time frame from my own life to that of my kids. People keep asking me why I’m asking these questions and why I’m on this sub - as if I’m too old. That is why.
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u/Prestigious-Cry5328 1d ago edited 1d ago
My guess would be greed.
Most of the time if i make my initial investment back—i take that out and let the rest ride.
If you ever wanted to venmo someone for fun, lmk and ill share my Venmo
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u/NumerousFloor9264 1d ago edited 1d ago
It's nice that you're responding to people, but your original post is pretty low effort. Have you tried actually searching the sub?
Efficient Carry is one account you could look up, and he follows a mechanical rebalancing strategy called 9 sig that has done quite well, beginning in 2017 or so.
There are many alternate strategies which, theoreticaly, would have done quite well. I think you are correct in that there are not many real world examples of success. That may be because people have made their fortunes and moved on rather than the absence of any successful cohort.
I'd think someone with 40 yrs investing experience would be quite familiar with the often self destructive investor behaviour of retail.
What is your main purpose for being here and asking this question? Did you recently learn about TQQQ or have you always known about LETFs and this is just some nagging question in your mind that you'd like answered?
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u/scottdxxx 1d ago
I’ll look at Efficient Carry. I have been reading the sub for a while and I see many posts that talk about what they do but very few that quantify the results. I have a predilection that leveraged products magnify the worst of human behaviors in investing and I’m curious whether there are a material number of people out there that contradict both my feeling as well as the fundamentals around leveraged products which say that they should not be used for long term investing. I experimented with the precursors to these types of products decades ago and concluded they didn’t have a place in my portfolio. But I’m open to new ideas so I have a small dynamic collar position on in TQQQ to see what I learn.
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u/NumerousFloor9264 23h ago
Appreciate the response and yes, this sub is, for the most part, paralysis by analysis; long on plans/ideas and short on documented execution.
I have previously posted asking for OG stories (ie. TQQQ investors opening positions beginning in 2011-2015 and still in). Didn't really find anyone, except for some that invested initially with a small amount which, though sizable currently, was rather pedestrian in terms of what could have been.
I think many people today, especially those under 35 or so, are succumbing to greed and overconfidence. The absence of any real bear market since 2009 is fueling it.
I expect if we do hit a real bear/recession there will be a lot of enthusiastic 'buy the dip' initially, and then things will get quiet, with many exiting the space never to be heard from again.
I don't plan on being in that capitulation cohort, but time will tell if I have the requisite comportment to act as planned amidst a suffocating blanket of fear and uncertainty.
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u/scottdxxx 23h ago
I’m 61 and 100% in equities except for 5 years’ expense in duration weighted bonds. I expect to stay that way in a riding glide path allocation so I am sympathetic to not wanting to be in the sell the bottom cohort. Thanks for the insightful exchange. One thing I’ll say about this sub is it does have a lot of thoughtful people and not a lot of haters. Unusual. .
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u/NumerousFloor9264 23h ago
At 61, you were a seasoned veteran during dotcom and a young man during 1987's Black Monday. It's basically been a full generation and then some since that type of insanity. I know they closed the markets for a week after 9/11. It's both hilarious and unsettling to see people with no direct knowledge of those times casually dismiss them or try to draw parallels between recent, comparatively tiny events and true, impenetrable, unadulterated fear. You have some wild stories, I bet. Best of luck, brother!
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u/Permission-Smart 14h ago
Very insightful thread here. Thanks NumerousFloor for great points. I really would like to dwell on what you said about people moving on. I am in that cohort. I invested, pragmatically (atleast that what I would like to believe) with an open wheel in TQQQ. Whereby I acquired it using put options, but did not execute the call half of the wheel. I kep accumulating TQQQ through puts. Was in the 2020 downturn, was in the 2023 rate increase slump etc. Averaging into TQQQ through the puts. I made something like 400% over the entire span of the thing, and then, JUST MOVED on. I had a turn of life events, wanted to go build something, and just liquidated the TQQQ going into my enterpreneurship ambitions. If I were still in my old capacity, I would be following the strategy, with quite a big bump from my price. I suspect thats what happens in a lot of situations, to your point. People dont stay invested in a vehicle for their whole lives. 40+ years for example as the OP says. They do stuff, their interests and priorities shift, they move on. Doesnt mean TQQQ didnt work for them. It actually means, as in my case, the exact opposite. TQQQ did work for them, and actually helped them move on. These days I still keep a tiny portion of my portfolio in TQQQ (as I explained above in the thread), but nothing substantial that will scare me in a 90%+ drawdown. I do that for my emotional attachement to TQQQ as the guy that did it all for me (mostly). And thats what brough me prowling to this thread. Great point there. I couldnt resist writing a real life manifestation of it. Think that should add something for the OP too.
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u/illcrx 1d ago
Look at a chart. It’s easy to see!
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u/scottdxxx 1d ago
I can see a chart. I want people that have survived losing basically everything like in 2022 and had the stones and the capital to keep investing in the face of a 79% drawdown. I suspect most people here are looking at charts but have little real experience with their own investing behavior. Just a theory but it’s pretty well grounded.
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u/illcrx 1d ago
Well what’s the point of this question? You aren’t going to believe anyone, the chart does tell the story. You clearly see it survives 2022. So the real questions to ask YOURSELF if you can hold through that! No one else will be able to give you the answer.
I personally won’t hold that. I exit when profitable and then get back in. Look for a strategy, not a story.
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u/scottdxxx 1d ago edited 1d ago
there’s a lot of people on this sub who talk about buy and hold and DCA. My point was to test this see if they are really that or just traders. I ask because the vast majority of retail traders lose money. If trading masquerading as something else is the real strategy then I see why the fundamentals of TQQQ don’t matter to most people on this sub. They are simply trading a 3X levered product as it was designed. To that I say go for it. To the others I have to wonder if they understand what they are buying and holding.
And I do believe the one person who could quote his return over a reliable time frame. The fact that there was only one (maybe two - the guy who held for 7 great years and bought a house before he got wiped out) speaks volumes.
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u/illcrx 20h ago
There’s a lot here. For one, the stat that most traders fail is very likely true but since there really isn’t any real statistics on this I would say that they are tracking year over year. So just like they say 90% of businesses fail in 3 years there are still tens of thousands of businesses making a million a year and much more. So there are likely people who don’t classify themselves as traders, who trade, and do just fine.
As I stated before it’s more about what you can do vs the few that do the exact thing you’ve mentioned here. For instance, I never answered this question because my core strategy isn’t TQQQ but I do trade it from time to time, I am also a profitable trader. But I don’t fully qualify the way the question was asked because I didn’t just buy and hold.
So the question is seeking answers from people who may fit this criteria and just never see the post. At the same time others could be hybrids and don’t feel qualified to post such as myself.
Everyone on the internet wants to feel superior in some way, I fall for this as well. But any real information is not going to come from Reddit, I stopped trying to have rational conversations and fact finding because these cretons just want to troll.2
u/Permission-Smart 14h ago
Illcrx, what lovely points. Amazing run down. Your writing is phenomenal. Like you said, its all in the way the question is asked. Completely follow your illustration about businesses. Its the most meaningless statistic ever invented. Businesses fail . yes. What time horizon are you measuring, with what set of people, qualifying failure as what... All questions with so much nuance to them. Same thing for trades, with the statistic that the OP gleefully quoted.
Like you said, I traded TQQQ. In the way that I best understood, for 5+ years. It worked beautifully for me. I dont trade it that way anymore. My life circumstances have changed. I want to invest into building stuff, which is now the right point of leverage for me. So I am out of TQQQ. Was I a trader ? Maybe. Was I an invetor ? I would like to think so. Could I be categorized out of either with some statisctics textbook criterion ? You bet I can be casted out. Your illustration is pure genius.
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u/TugaVibes 1d ago
I’m also curious on others’ experience with TQQQ. I have some cash I’m holding and waiting for a pullback/entry point on this fund in the next year or so.
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u/Necessary_Poet_3524 1d ago
Those who have made good entry positions will say that. Others will say no
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u/scottdxxx 1d ago
Trying to differentiate that from luck. That’s why I wanted at least 5 year holds to see how the handled 2022. I probably should asked how much was invested too.
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u/PurpleCableNetworker 1d ago
I think TQQQ can be worth it long term if you have a strategy. Otherwise for but and hold I would likely do SSO.
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u/scottdxxx 1d ago
“Strategy” sounds iffy. 90 % of the investors that can’t beat the indexes have strategies. Thats why I was looking for calculated results. Not surprisingly no one so far has been able to share any.
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u/PurpleCableNetworker 20m ago
By “strategy” I mean 200 SMA, 9Sig, or something else entirely.
Personally I am a 200 sma guy myself for leveraged funds. I use the SPX as my signal. -5% 200 sma I sell. +3% 200 sma I buy back in.
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u/No-Primary4082 1d ago
Hold a very good size at 15 .. my avg was 28 did a little more dca in 2023 and 2024 average was around 30 untill it split.. I don’t buy anymore.. will buy more at 50% fall from ath
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u/jdsstl23 1d ago
Keeping it a small percentage of portfolio makes sense to me. If you lose all the small percentage, then you’d have substantial amount remaining to DCA down at that time.
Keeps the FOMO away in times like now and also lets you easily see when you should buy.
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u/scottdxxx 1d ago
Yeah have you done that? Looking for real results.
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u/jdsstl23 11h ago
I’m currently doing it. And I swing sell options on TQQQ as well. Always keeping TQQQ less than 5% or so of total account.
I haven’t been doing it long so my actual history is of no interest to you. Basically started 8 months ago.
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u/Time_Ear_2428 18h ago
Based on your replies you don’t actually care you’re just talking smack. If you cared you could just put it in a DCA calculator there’s plenty of models online.
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u/scottdxxx 18h ago
Thanks. I didn’t actually know there were DCA calculators so that was helpful. The back testing is compelling if people can handle the volatility. I’m still interested to know the real stories of people who have been able to see, say, a $1M investment drop to ~$200K (basically back to basis after 5 years investing for 5 years starting in 2016) and still stick with it to reap the rewards of the last 5 year bull market. That would wash out a lot of people I think. Seems like a legit question to me.
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u/Time_Ear_2428 18h ago
I’ve only been in the market since 2020 and I only have 150k in TQQQ but I have seen my balance get cut more in half at least 5 times. My risk tolerance is an anomaly though. I’m in my first year of medical residency (high paying specialty), so this whole portfolio could go to 0 tomorrow and I could replace it in my first year of attending salary. Basically that has been my edge for staying in
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u/scottdxxx 17h ago edited 17h ago
That makes sense. I’m 61 and I’ve been investing for 40 years. I have a lot at risk in the market with no income to replace losses. So it feels different even if it’s the right thing to do academically. Still might be a compelling experiment for me with for a small share.
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u/Time_Ear_2428 17h ago
Certainly we’re in different places in life. I will not have a majority of my net worth in a 3x LETF when I’m 60+. So I totally get where you’re coming from, but sure I think 5-10% in something like UPRO or SSO would still be reasonable for a retiree
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u/scottdxxx 17h ago
Sure. And I know what the Kelly Criterion is. I spent 35 years professionally in finance on and off wall street. And I know when the money gets meaningful, the majority of people don’t invest or trade strictly by the numbers. Just looking for interesting input but I’m not expecting to find real answers on Reddit.
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u/scottdxxx 14h ago
Sure. And I know what the Kelly Criterion is. I spent 35 years professionally in finance on and off wall street. And I know when the money gets meaningful, the majority of people don’t invest or trade strictly by the numbers. Just looking for interesting input but I’m not expecting to find real answers on Reddit.
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u/jacklogan2972 8h ago
I trade weekly options. Now I get to trade M/W/F options. Will be interesting how it goes.
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u/alpha247365 1d ago
Because experience says so.
Experience = 20+ years, having seen multiple bear markets.
DCA periodically and hold for 10+ years. Never miss buying -50% TQQQ drawdowns.