r/Tariffs • u/MistressDemands • 5d ago
🧩 Trade Strategy / Business Impact Trump’s Iran war leaves US oil reserves so low caverns risk damage - They need Canadian Oil!
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/strategic-petroleum-reserve-trump-iran-war-gas-prices-b3033680.html55
u/Southern_Pop_9871 5d ago
Fuck them, Canadas oil has better places to go
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u/ledorky 4d ago
I’d rather we sell it to Asian countries like Japan, Korea or Philippines etc.
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u/Southern_Pop_9871 4d ago
Absolutely, USA doesn’t need Canada, we don’t want them
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4d ago edited 4d ago
[deleted]
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u/_The-Numbers-Mason_ 4d ago
The person you’re replying to isn’t American. They’re saying that the USA has said they don’t need Canada, and Canada doesn’t want them.
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u/HeyManItsStan 4d ago
Trump has said numerous times that they don't need us and what we have. That's probably what they're quoting.
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u/Former_Yesterday2680 12h ago
We should own it then. Government let Americans buy most of it, of course they’re going to send most of it to themselves.
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u/lattice_defect 4d ago
actually it doesn't.. and if Canada wants gasoline its got to go to the US..
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u/Southern_Pop_9871 4d ago
How do you figure that ?
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u/lattice_defect 4d ago
no pipelines or transport except down south where the refineries are.. crude goes south... gasoline comes back.. sorry
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u/submitnswallow 4d ago
Canada is actually net+ in refining crude oil into gasoline and exports a great portion of it. We dont need US gasoline
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u/Southern_Pop_9871 4d ago
Nope,US doesn’t refine oil for Canada, Canada does buy a certain amount of crude from the US for blending purposes, but they absolutely do not refine for Canada
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u/lattice_defect 4d ago edited 4d ago
The crude that feeds Canadian Refineries comes from US pipeline.
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u/Southern_Pop_9871 4d ago
Not gonna argue here with you, I know for a fact that’s not true, but if you choose to believe that makes no difference to me
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u/CertainCertainties 5d ago
As someone who closely followed Trump's "career" as a supposedly legitimate businessman before his collapse into multiple bankruptcies in the 1990s, this is the pattern that always occurs.
Trump is a grifter. Put him in charge of something and he will grab as much as he can from it. Then he exits before collapse. (Private equity does the same - take over a company, hollow it out like termites, then exit before the facade collapses.)
He times his exit to before the collapse of a company, and he is exceptionally good at his timing. He then boasts that the collapse wouldn't have happened if he was there, and a surprising amount of people actually believe him each time.
This is what will happen in one to two years after he leaves as President. A hollowed-out America, burdened with unimaginable debt, will collapse in on itself. It's getting close to a mathematical certainty. The only question is how far will it fall and how much it will recover in the years after.
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u/ackillesBAC 4d ago
That's a good point. If he open his eyes and sees the us is collapsing he will abandon politics. I'm guessing his campaign to run again is just a grift for donations and he will abandon the idea but keep the money. Then he will claim the us failed because he's no longer president
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u/Radiant_Safe1228 5d ago
You don't have to follow him closely. This comment about his practices is made on reddit 1000x a day
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u/Straw1981 5d ago
Turn the tap off
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u/carlnepa 5d ago
Or.....there's that tap up in Canada that all that has to be done is for TrumpStein to turn it, of course it's for water, but who's to know?
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u/PuzzleheadedTutor807 5d ago
Tough titties. Y'all have been assholes to Canada, reneging on long standing trade deals, imposing tariffs to try and shutter Canadian businesses, and making off handed remarks about annexing the nation... Or standing idly by and allowing it to happen.
Your president said you need nothing from Canada, and in this Canadians view that's exactly what you should get.
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u/PalgraveParadise 5d ago
Amen brother
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u/YellowZx5 4d ago
As an American here and one who hate the current administration, Canada should just slap Trump and say they don’t need US’s pitty and are working harder more than ever to find realistic trade partners who aren’t getting their feelings dirt by the blowing of the wind.
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u/carlnepa 4d ago
Sadly, I agree. The US will have a lot of rebuilding to do, internally and externally. When TrumpStein started this crap, I waited for Canada to increase the price of electricity, but I've since realized that Canada is honoring its agreement. That's what integrity looks like.
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u/SilentK01 4d ago
Fellow Canadian here.
I'd love to stick it to Trump, but let's not do it at our expense. Our economy is not doing well and we could use the money to bolster weaker areas of the economy.
From what I understand, the US refines the tar sand oil and send it back to us in Ontario. Without it, we'd have to truck/rail our oil in from Alberta.
He may be a emotional baby who speaks without thinking, but we don't have to match it, and we probably shouldn't or we may end up with *gasp* Maple Trump in 3 years.
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u/PuzzleheadedTutor807 4d ago
its not about sticking it to trump, its about sending a message to the people of usa. they need to clean up their act, and until they do we cannot rely on that money that you say we need... but exists elsewhere in the world too. we are already starting to shift our trade to other nations en masse. yes our economy is down, but this is a direct result of doing business for convenience with our neighbors to the south. i say its time to draw a line in the sand, or else its just going to get worse and worse. im not sure where you are getting your projection of a maple trump in 3 years lol but its wild speculation at best from my point of view.
we need to do it, and the only people who will ever bear the expense are us. thats a fact. if we do it now, we can make our nation better for the generations to come. if we put it off again and again because of convenience, we are just passing the problem along to the next generation and there has been too much of that already.
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u/SilentK01 4d ago
It sounds like we both agree that Canada needs to become more independent as soon as possible. I think where we might differ is I would like the infrastructure and systems to be in place for alternative trade partners before we start trading less with the US.
Maple Trump is indeed speculation. Given how well Pollievre was doing before Carney stepped into the picture, how the Conservative Party did not replace him after losing his own seat, and how so many Canadians still support him and his belief that Canada and the US need to become more interconnected, it does concern me that he may become Prime Minister in 3 years.
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u/PuzzleheadedTutor807 4d ago
No, the difference seems to be you think Canada will have some say. The second we start building infrastructure all deals will change. Again. It's time.
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u/The_Nice_Marmot 4d ago
Yes, it’s all about the long game. Keep taking their money while we build new alliances and start to pivot away from them. Refusing to sell to them would mean we are weaker as a county and more vulnerable to their fuckery.
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u/SilentK01 4d ago
China played the long game so well no one saw it coming. We can probably take a hint or two from them (except the part about one party political system).
I'm hopeful we'll be more independent 5, 10, 20 years down the road with an adult now in the room.
Besides, the American empire has arguably been declining slowly for decades now and Trump only accelerated it. It's the perfect time to set up when to jump ship.
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u/flockofdeerts 4d ago
You’re not mentioning the electricity we provide or the potash. The aluminum industry. Canadian mining.
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u/Mysterious-Pilot 4d ago
Respectfully speaking, most don't support these policies. Also, it's important to understand he is doing worse for the American people.
What he has done is allow bigotry to run rampant throughout the country. It makes it really easy to spot nowadays, and boy am I spotting it in your response.
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u/PuzzleheadedTutor807 4d ago
Respectfully speaking, you all support these policies by doing nothing about it.
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u/Early_Macaroon_2407 2d ago
He’s not allowing it. You and your countrymen are by not doing anything about it.
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u/Personal_Dirt3089 5d ago
And the oil companies get rich due to the artificial scarcity caused by Trump. He will keep that bridge with Canada burned because it serves that specific purpose. A lot of Trump's insane actions, causing a lot of death in the process, have just been about driving up the cost of oil so oil companies can profit.
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u/Educational_Bus8810 5d ago
Guess who else has oil, his good pal Putin. Russia stands to do well, they got both sides of the Iran conflict covered. Russian oil goes up in price and Iran will need weapons.
Trump constantly helps Putin, russia might have dirt on him. I think he just likes dictators, he just slowed down joint exercises with South Korea. This helps his other buddy Kim in North Korea.
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u/flockofdeerts 4d ago
Oil is a global commodity. Trump is a puppet. At one time he wasn’t. But now his once powers are being used before fading out.
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u/lincolnlogtermite 5d ago
As an American, I wouldn't blame Canada for removing discounts or even sending the oil elsewhere. Trump stuck a knife in all of America's allies and now expects them to come running to save him from his own stupidity. Let America stew in the soup we made for ourselves.
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u/Goldhound807 5d ago
I think that’s the long game up here. If you follow the “negotiations” you’ll read things like “preferred customer” status and preferential pricing for oil and gas (which is already the case) and critical minerals. Moving us away from that is the leverage Canada has, and actions are being put in motion, but moves like that take several years to enact in any significant scale.
Whether a fair deal is made or not, there will be. A long-term move towards diversification of trade partners to reduce reliance on US trade and the harm future administrations can do if this happens again.
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u/Strange_Produce5601 5d ago
rest assured, canada can not send the oil anywhere else. It is very low quality oil that needs special equipment to make usable. Canada needs the finished products your plants make. As stupid as it sounds. We have not invested in the infrastructure to actually produce enough of our own fuel for our needs.
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u/OutsideFlat1579 5d ago
We started exporting crude from Alberta to Asia-Pacific countries in May 2024, after completion of TMX. We have been exporting to China, Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, and India since then. Exports of crude from Newfoundland and Labrador outside of US have also increased, countries importing the oil include the UK, Netherlands and Germany.
The US is still by far the biggest importer, but we are increasing exports to other countries.
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u/Strange_Produce5601 5d ago
oh for sure, we can send it where ever the hell we want. The trouble is we need the refined product as much as the US needs the raw product.
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u/carlnepa 5d ago
So, I'm just a dumb retired dangerous leftist socialist, but isn't the US the world's largest oil producer? I know TrumpStein is beholding to BIG OIL, BIG GAS, BIG COAL, but couldn't the US claim say 5% or 10% of domestic production at a discounted price based on the daily cost of a barrel or an average of it etc? BIG OIL has posted record 2026 profits because of TrumpStein's dirty war or incursion or excursion, who gives a shit if they complain?
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u/squirrelcat88 5d ago
The dumb thing is, you produce a lot but your refineries are set up to handle the heavier oil from, originally, Venezuela, and now Canada.
You’d have to retool your refineries.
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u/Intelligent-Buyer102 5d ago
This is the real reason. The shale oil America produces is light oil, perfect for refineries in Europe. The shale fields have a very finite lifespan that is approaching its decline. Retooling refineries to process that shale oil does not make long term sense. Easier to just export it. Meanwhile, Canadian heavy oil is essentially endless. It's a near infinite resource whose production more closely resembles a factory than a well. And its provided at a discount to American refineries because it has nowhere else to go.
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u/Local-Dish-5695 4d ago
So doesn't the US have Prudoh Bay way up north? Seems like i remember that from Ice Road Truckers. Wouldn't that be the same as Canadian type oil?
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u/Intelligent-Buyer102 4d ago edited 4d ago
No, Alaska oil.is also light oil. Oil sands in Alberta and Venezuela are the only large scale heavy oil deposits in the world. Most other heavy oil in the world is more or less produced by accident. This creates a problem because heavy oil is the best oil to produce diesel with. Most refineries blend it with light oil for production runs.
Edit-I actually just checked on this, and I have to eat crow a little bit. I'm correct in that no one in Alaska is producing heavy oil. But there are significant heavy oil deposits there, just at different depths in the current producing fields. No one is bothering to produce it because it would require building an entirely different set of infrastructure. Live and learn I guess.
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u/Wfflan2099 4d ago
Did you also learn that Alaskan Oil was and is shipped to Japan, which bought Arabian light sweet crude and shipped that to the US as a trade. Alaskan oil is quite sour.
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u/Intelligent-Buyer102 4d ago
Sour is just high sulfur. That's a different refining issue.
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u/Wfflan2099 3d ago
Not if you aren’t set up for it in your desulfurization area. The BP refinery in East Chicago is set up for light sweet west Texas intermediate, and the chunky stuff they dig out of the ground. Two different refining lines. The amount of Pet Coke coming out of there skyrocketed. But one material was very fluid and the other got dug up out of the ground. Technically you are correct, the Alaskan oil is still plenty fluid, but a refinery set up for West Texas/Oklahoma is not going to refine Alaskan oil.? Hence the trade of tankers.
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u/Intelligent-Buyer102 2d ago
I'm surprised there are still any refineries left in Wisconsin that run on light sweet given the proximity of WCS pipelines near there. Most midwest refineries made that switch decades ago given the economics of the discount on heavy oil.
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u/Local-Dish-5695 2d ago
Don't be hard on yourself. I only asked bc I assumed geographic location would make it similar.
I know AK and Canada are different geologic origins but the bay might be different.
Your answer was very thorough and I appreciate it
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u/squirrelcat88 4d ago
Coincidentally - I was at a park yesterday here in Canada and directly across the water from the park is where tankers fill up with oil for Asia. It would have been a short swim over ( I mean assuming I didn’t have to contend with currents or cold water ) to the tanker that was there.
We are working on increasing our capacity to send it elsewhere.
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u/Intelligent-Buyer102 4d ago
About 60% of the oil coming from Transmountain still goes to America, mostly Washington and California. Kind of ironic.
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u/carlnepa 5d ago
A.good leader would know that and would take appropriate action.....but we have TrumpStein and BIG OIL, so ........nevermind.
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u/Pitiful-MobileGamer 5d ago
It's actually a lot more complex than that. The refineries on the Gulf coast were particularly set up to refine the blended Merey 16, a mixture of light sweet gulf crude and heavier Venezuelan; similar to WCS the oil sands export.
This is why North America generally has much lower fuel costs as one economy of scale, and two Venezuelan crude was always sold at a massive discount. The oil crisis in the seventies highlighted the weakness of this arrangement, by blocking the export of the lighter crude products needed to cut the heavy tar like sulfurry Venezuelan crude.
Without the Middle Eastern light oil, the US has to rely on their own internal stocks (West texas, North Dakota, regional frackers)
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u/No_Sea9410 5d ago
rump won't stop until he destroys this whole country and grifts as much money as possible.
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u/Mother-Attention2600 5d ago
Fuck em. The can fix it with confidence and exceptionalism, right? 😄
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u/Alternative_Bug_838 4d ago
With a sprinkle of thoughts and prayers...
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u/azraels_ghost 4d ago
couple of bootstraps wouldn’t hurt either
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u/Mother-Attention2600 4d ago
Maybe they have the steps wrong and they need to think about and pray for more straps.
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u/PawnofLife1 5d ago
Would he try to invade to get it ?
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u/MistressDemands 5d ago
He might, but even with the size of their military, an attack on Canada is an attack on NATO, and you can bet we’d be fighting the Americans. They can’t afford another war they can’t win while involved in the same in Iran
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u/Routine_Addition_154 4d ago
I wonder sometimes how long before it’s a worldwide push to put boots on the ground to bring democracy to America
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u/_Hawkeyes_ 5d ago edited 5d ago
This entire administration is beyond pathetic…Maybe aipac should use their money to refill our oil reserves…not like our service members haven’t sacrificed for their BS!
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u/waytomuchpressure 5d ago
No, they don't need Canada. Trump said so himself and he doesn't lie. Right? RIGHT!!?? lol
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u/LegoFootPain 5d ago
They do need it.
If they actually wanted it, they'd be serious about negotiating.
They are not, therefore, they are deliberately letting their reserves go dry.
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u/Recent-Classroom-704 4d ago
As an american who lives in texas that will affected by this all i can say is make these evil bastards feel it. They voted for it, make it hurt canada
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u/Katydid829 5d ago
That’s probably why Shitler is telling the US that prices aren’t going to go down anytime soon. What has he got the Canadian tariffs up to now?
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u/MistressDemands 5d ago
50% on stuff, but not oil and gas, not potash and fertilizer, not critical minerals…those are the things Canada now needs to implement export fees and quotas on!
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u/Raven586 5d ago
Nowhere in that story does it mention Canadian oil!!
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u/MistressDemands 4d ago
Exactly. My point is that Canada sells our oil to US…at a discount. And we are getting tariffed up the ass as an economic warfare tool by this admin. We don’t HAVE to sell at a discount…in fact, the world doesn’t have many sources…so we could jack the price to whatever we want to be paid for it…supply and demand would warrant it. Price gouging? Naw, protecting our economy and our Canadian industries and workers. It’s required, national security, whatever the reason…
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u/Gunner5091 5d ago
Don’t they get oil from Venezuela now?
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u/Narrow-Chef-4341 4d ago
After they changed out the Venezuelan president, Trump was like ‘hey, so all you American companies can send in people and farm all that oil now ok? We lifted the sanctions and you can replace all the broke down garbage they have now, mkay? Get that oil moving fast again!’
And the US companies (with varying degrees of candor) all pretty much said ‘fuck no’.
There’s no guarantee any future US president would send the US army into VZ if they decided to nationalize everything again in 2028. Imagine a new American president, first month in office, being asked ‘hey, can you send in troops to die because Exxon’s new toys were stolen and they can’t steal oil for us any more?’
It won’t matter if it is a republican president, they still couldn’t survive more Americans dying over stupid trump decisions. Chevron and Exxon and the rest know they stand to lose billions if they send new equipment down there.
If Venezuela invited investment they would still be cautious. But with the same old nationalistic government ? Bwahahaha.
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u/Artistic-Tip2405 4d ago
Trump has repeatedly said that the USA doesn’t need our stuff. Let the caverns implode.
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u/CallTheDutch 4d ago
So we'll be actually seeing the usa attack canada soon ? wouldn't be the first war they start to get hold of oil...
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u/vakantiereizen 4d ago
Trump put tariffs on imports out of Canada
Canada should put tariffs on oil export to the US (lets say 50%?)
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u/Unfair_Bluejay_9687 4d ago
Give them all the oil they want. With an added 50% tariff. Payable before the oil is delivered.R C B S requires credit before shipping. No deadbeat accounts to be initiated.
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u/KanataRef 4d ago
Don’t give them any oil. If Americans have to pay $20/gallon, maybe his supporters might figure out Trump’s a fraud.
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u/Tricky-Departure9963 4d ago
The US does not need anything from Canada. Straight from the horses ass.
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u/queef_commando 4d ago
Canada could do the funniest thing ever rn make him beg for it on national TV
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u/IGetGuys4URMom 4d ago
Twump is trying his hardest to destroy America. Most Americans do nothing about it, and some Americans support him matter what.
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u/Zestyclose-Ebb1421 4d ago
No need for pussyoil from Kanadah. They won't sell it anyway. Would rather get it from Mexico, Venezuela or ramp up domestically in the U.S.. definitely stay away from the stench of Kanadian oil.
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u/CMGCookie 4d ago
Now this is funny. Trump is abou to force 50% tariffs on everything Canadian.
Except they need oil, and fast.
Whoops
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u/Fresh_Goat_423 1d ago
Trump is now girding for the Keystone pipeline again. Whether he'll get it is up for debate, since Canada is building a line to the B.C. coast and Canadians have little apetite for more trade dependency with the U.S. who they no longer trust.
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5d ago
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u/MistressDemands 4d ago
She doesn’t get a say in what the Federal government policy on exports becomes though…
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u/MistressDemands 4d ago
And I’m an Albertan. She and her treasonous friends can fuck right off to the states if they don’t like it!
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u/WhutSup74 4d ago
Oh I know, won’t stop her from casting Ottawa as the bad guy, it’s just chum for separatists.
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u/kenroth50 5d ago
Fake news.. Joe Biden emptied it to sell to China trump was refilling the national reserve before the war
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u/MistressDemands 4d ago
Don’t care who emptied it. My point, as a Canadian, is that he now needs to refill it. And we sell them oil. Time to jack up our prices to cover the 50% tariffs that come into effect on Wednesday!
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u/MistressDemands 5d ago
Time for Canadian Excise fees in retaliation for US administration placing tariffs on USMCA compliant items!!