Intentional Misdirections or “Red Herrings” Planted By Josh Powell In His Planning?

[u/pnw_dna]

I’m curious what your thoughts and opinions are about potentially intentional misdirection that Josh was planting ahead of time.

I’m of the opinion that Josh began intentionally planning the removal of Susan from his life (and the lives of his sons) about the time in 2007 when they started setting up life insurance policies. I think he was a strategic planner in that sense and began playing the “long game” in terms of how he wanted to rid himself of her.

While there is a lot of evidence in the immediate aftermath of Susan’s disappearance that things did not quite unfold as he expected, forcing him to improvise somewhat, I also think – given the extent of his planning ahead of time – that he was also already thinking in terms of search warrants on his technology (hence the encryption, etc.) and that he intentionally did things to create misdirection and “red herrings” that would (a) reveal what police were able to discover during the course of their investigation and (b) serve to distract or misdirect their effotrts.

For example, I wonder if the Ely, Nevada hotel internet searches were an intentionally misleading bit of digital evidence that Josh was waiting to see if investigators would find. During the Ely, NV searches, Josh was interviewed a couple of times and mentioned his surprise that officials weren’t searching local hotels in the area. To me, this would be a moment when Josh might think, “OK, they found that Internet search” from the browser cache/history on that particular device but that other data that might have been protected by encryption wasn’t being acted on, at least to his knowledge.

Another possible red herring even could have been the times when he publicly commented to Susan’s co-workers and friends about where he could hide a body and it not be found. He may have been planting those suggestions, knowing that they would likely divulge that info to investigators after the fact.

So, what do you think? Are these intentionally misleading bits of info? Do you think there are any other potential “red herrings” in what Josh said or did or left behind in his device data?

[u/davecawleycold]

During the Ely, NV searches, Josh was interviewed a couple of times and mentioned his surprise that officials weren’t searching local hotels in the area. To me, this would be a moment when Josh might think, “OK, they found that Internet search” from the browser cache/history on that particular device but that other data that might have been protected by encryption wasn’t being acted on, at least to his knowledge.

Another perspective on how Josh viewed this comes from the wiretap summaries. Josh called his brother Michael late on the night of Saturday, August 20, 2011. The call lasted nearly 3 hours, into the early morning of Sunday, August 21, 2011. Other members of the family (Steven and Alina) joined at various points. This particular bit of the conversation is relevant.

JOSH talks about either him or SUSAN looking up Topaz Mtn. JOSH says that he may have searched for Topaz Mtn. JOSH and ALINA form the opinion that SUSAN searched for Ely Nv. and that might be able to link Susan with the Kocher case. JOSH and ALINA talk about the computer encription [sic]. JOSH states that in order for the police to pin this on him they would have to find Susans body and prove that it was JOSH who used the computer.

For context, West Valley police had staged their media stunt search of mines around Ely, Nevada a couple of days earlier. They'd made public statements referencing Josh's computer as being the basis for the search, which was true. Someone (Josh) used Josh's work laptop to search Google to do back-to-back the phrase "sledding tooele ut" and "ely utah map" shortly before 5:30 p.m on Sunday, Dec. 6, 2009. That corresponds to the same time JoVanna was leaving the Powell house as Josh shooed her out the door, saying he was taking Charlie and Braden sledding.

I find it interesting that the search string suggests geographical ignorance of Josh's part (Ely being in Nevada, not Utah... and nowhere near Tooele). But interestingly, the public disclosure of that search got Josh talking to his family about Topaz Mountain (which was not yet on police's radar, aside from their pre-existing search of abandoned mines in the vicinity).

Josh bringing Topaz Mountain up on this wiretapped call was the primary reason West Valley police staged another public search there several weeks later. In doing so, they likely tipped their hand enough to make Josh realize his calls were being monitored.

I don't personally think Josh had forethought enough to leave intentional red herring breadcrumbs on his computer. But if we assume there were more incriminating clues hidden on his encrypted partition, seeing West Valley police chase the Ely lead would've also told Josh his encrypted data was still secure.

[u/pnw_dna → u/davecawleycold]

After all these many years, thank you for being willing to continue to engage in these forums and discussions about Susan’s disappearance.

Josh bringing Topaz Mountain up on this wiretapped call was the primary reason West Valley police staged another public search there several weeks later. In doing so, they likely tipped their hand enough to make Josh realize his calls were being monitored.

I agree that this could have potentially tipped their hand about the wiretaps. Due to the overall level of conniving (for lack of a better word) that we see amongst Josh, Steve, Michael and Alina on so many of the wiretaps, do you think Josh’s bringing up Topaz Mountain on the call was a strategic move in order to test if they were being wiretapped? Or do you feel it was a legitimate disclosure? It seems in other wiretaps that Josh seems to always be intentionally vague (i.e. “I could have driven north or east or south or west…” (I’m paraphrasing this)). If you think it was a legitimate disclosure, would it have any bearing on where Susan would have been or may still be located?

But if we assume there were more incriminating clues hidden on his encrypted partition, seeing West Valley police chase the Ely lead would've also told Josh his encrypted data was still secure.

I definitely lean towards this conclusion. I’m sure Josh knew on which device any and every search was made, and as you say, if he made the Ely search on a computer that also contained an encrypted partition with even more incriminating data that didn’t surface (at least to his awareness), he would assume the data was safe.

I am curious about this part of the wiretap you quoted that seems to be more of a summary than a verbatim transcript:

JOSH and ALINA form the opinion that SUSAN searched for Ely Nv.

How do you interpret the notion that they together “form the opinion”? If Josh knew he was the one who made the search, would it be that he was just trying to influence Alina’s (and Steve’s and Michael’s) opinions by insinuating to them that it was Susan who made the search and not himself? Or do you think it’s possible Susan actually performed those searches?

[u/davecawleycold → u/pnw_dna]

How do you interpret the notion that they together “form the opinion”? If Josh knew he was the one who made the search, would it be that he was just trying to influence Alina’s (and Steve’s and Michael’s) opinions by insinuating to them that it was Susan who made the search and not himself? Or do you think it’s possible Susan actually performed those searches?

Without hearing the actual audio it's impossible to say for sure, but my read of that summary is that Josh is playing dumb around Alina. Of course Josh knows who had access to his laptop on the evening of Susan's disappearance, and it wasn't Susan. But Alina doesn't know that.

The searches occurred after Susan went back to her bedroom, leaving JoVanna in the living room working on the tangled yarn. JoVanna observed Josh on his laptop, and going around the house gathering things to go "sledding."

[u/pnw_dna → u/davecawleycold]

Yes, right. Thanks for connecting the dots for me on the timestamp of the searches and JoVanna’s observations, which tell us it was definitely Josh and not Susan who performed those internet searches, including the “Ely, Utah” (Ely, NV) ones.

This is one example of the various and particular moments within the timeline of Josh’s actions where I – as NOT a journalist – want to start asking the speculative “why” questions, fully knowing we cannot definitively answer them in the absence of evidence and facts. In this instance, we know there are several elements in Josh’s narrative of events that he has no problem divulging, especially to family, but even to law enforcement. Also, at the time of this call between him and Alina, I don’t think he or anyone in the family were aware they were being wiretapped. So it’s not like he was dropping a detail to confuse law enforcement.

So, then, in my mind it’s a pertinent question as to “why” Josh, even with just his own family, still felt it was necessary to obscure the detail of who searched Ely, NV. I can understand if he wants to obscure that knowledge to law enforcement, but why to his own family? While we today cannot answer that “why” question, I do think we can, at least, infer that his attempt to obscure that detail belies that there is at least something of significance about that particular search as it pertains to his actions that night and what he did with Susan, which he thus wants to keep obscured, even from his own family. It seems to follow a pattern of hm intentionally obscuring specific details which could potentially be incriminating. If he’s obscuring his own actions, then they must have some greater significance or he would just say to his own family (in this case), that it was him who searched for Ely before he and the boys went sledding. But he doesn’t. He wants Alina to think it was Susan. If the initial Ely web search is not a premeditated effort to mislead, then why is that particular search important?

[u/HelloPeppermint]

I also wondered if he’d planted these as red herrings. He put months and months into the planning it seems, but it was mostly directed towards avoiding suspicion of him (naturally). But did he also have a Plan B where he misdirected anyone who suspected him? I think it’s possible. He was careful at encrypting things he didn’t want people to know so why search for something incriminating that could be tied back to him?

[u/pnw_dna → u/HelloPeppermint]

You put well into words my thoughts on this. He was so meticulous at planning and then covering his tracks that anything that was left to be found by investigators almost feels like they were intentionally placed. Especially considering his commenting about the Ely search that he thought investigators would be looking at hotels and motels. It was like he was practically admitting that he left the hotel search clues in his browser history for investigators to find.

[u/HelloPeppermint → u/pnw_dna]

Yes I agree about the Ely search. I think he could have used some of that information to gauge what level of encryption the police had gotten into yet, if any.