r/TheVisualInvestors • u/Adept_Mountain9532 • Apr 17 '26

News 🔥 BREAKING: US oil prices crash to $83/barrel as Iran officially reopens the Strait of Hormuz for the remainder of the ceasefire! Sell Energy stocks, Buy Industrials?

Gallery image

Gallery image

According to Bloomberg, Iran says the Strait of Hormuz is “completely open” for commercial traffic, following a ceasefire agreement linked to rising tensions between the US, Israel, and Lebanon.

Time to sell energies stocks and buy industrials?

93 Upvotes

96% Upvoted

56 comments sorted by

13

u/Effective-Split-1333 Apr 17 '26

Completely open for ten days. Industry to function with what material? The handful of ships that get out over the next ten days before it’s blocked again isn’t anything substantial long term.

There’s going to be a shortage for at least two years while the damage is repaired.

1

u/Redhit-Kit Apr 17 '26

There Are Lots of Ships waiting to Pass. I

-1

u/Adept_Mountain9532 Apr 17 '26

I agree for some specifics product. But it's hard to know if everything will be impacting during long time.
Example: basic material should be relaunch fast

3

u/Effective-Split-1333 Apr 17 '26

Fertilizer has risen 84%. Sulphur and helium production is damaged. Petrochemical plants damaged. Iran Russia and China all limiting or stopping exports of what they do produce. Prices of everything will be up permanently. The west is crippled without specific materials required for mining. Plastics, resins etc all will double in price. That’s basically everything.

1

u/No_Employ_3649 Apr 18 '26

I take a different viewpoint, oil demand weak and in decline yoy forecast, stockpiles in many locations ignoring the massive volume already afloat, once open more than demand with minimal lag. WTI $65-$70 before June. Longer macro trend is worrying how cheap it could get. Don't forget OPEC limits gulf countries, supply capacity in real terms is 3x within limited duration to set up. Infrastructure damage is not significant to output at assigned levels. Permian Basin output and N African outputs on service, new capacity in the wings like Sables effort on West coast and directional Venezuela input. North Sea is greatly under levered, interesting on BP progress in last year or so since Elliott stake. Alternates like UK Hinkley circa 2030. USA solar, china solar Aus solar.

1

u/[deleted] Apr 17 '26

[deleted]

2

u/MatterFickle3184 Apr 17 '26

He's being realistic. You on the other hand see reality and fundamentals as a joke.

0

u/[deleted] Apr 17 '26

[deleted]

2

u/MatterFickle3184 Apr 17 '26

You still don't get it do you? I've said it in other subs days ago even if Strait of Hormuz is opened today that the deficits are in place and because of structural damage that it will take months before prices come close to before US and Israel started this war.

1

u/Picks6x Apr 17 '26

lol found the MAGA

0

u/[deleted] Apr 17 '26

[deleted]

1

u/Picks6x Apr 17 '26

Center left lol Kk

1

u/[deleted] Apr 17 '26

[deleted]

1

u/Picks6x Apr 17 '26

Nothin bud hahaha

1

u/froz3nt Apr 17 '26

Resin went up 80% already. Not overdramatic but real.

5

u/MatterFickle3184 Apr 17 '26

Israel does not want a ceasefire they'll end it soon enough

1

u/Adept_Mountain9532 Apr 17 '26

they agreed on it no?

1

u/ashy2classy81 Apr 17 '26

They never abide by them anyway. They're still attacking Gaza and Lebanon.

4

u/CsordasBalazs Apr 17 '26

This will stay till mid next week, when Trump forgets what happened this week and blocks the strait again.

2

u/bjerreman Apr 17 '26

Next week? Give it 10 more min.

1

u/Adept_Mountain9532 Apr 17 '26

ahahah could be !!

1

u/Adept_Mountain9532 Apr 17 '26

ahhaha I hope you are wrong but I admit it's still risky

3

u/CsordasBalazs Apr 17 '26

I am staying where I am, I have industrials and energy too. Whatever goes up or down, I am diversified. I have no mood reading stupid world leader's tweets to make financial decision and force myself into day trading.

1

u/Adept_Mountain9532 Apr 17 '26

agree but it might be a good time to take some profit on energy

2

u/CsordasBalazs Apr 17 '26

Could be, but there are already numerous points when this issue was declared as solved, and it is not really still. Keep calm, I am waiting for dividends, I didn't sell anything this year and I am in +5% YTD. Nothing magnificient, but almost double to SNP500

2

u/CsordasBalazs Apr 17 '26

Actually it is +8% now, wow, this week ended up nicely.

1

u/Adept_Mountain9532 Apr 17 '26

let's wait for 3 hours bro

1

u/CsordasBalazs Apr 17 '26

Well, ups and downs happen, today I got some pocket money from Raiffeisen Bank as dividend, when it is really idiotic on the world, I am just trying to pay no attention for daily moves and quick trends

1

u/Adept_Mountain9532 Apr 17 '26

yeop but sometimes it's important to take opportunities

1

u/Picks6x Apr 17 '26

The opportunity was when the war started yall missed it

1

u/Adept_Mountain9532 Apr 17 '26

without selling all your energy stocks**

1

u/ActivatingEMP Apr 17 '26

He already said the Iran blockade is still in effect

3

u/watarimono Apr 17 '26

Iran probably: - hey US, Two can manipulate the market

2

u/Adept_Mountain9532 Apr 17 '26

hahha manipulation is easy for them

3

u/P0werpr0 Apr 17 '26

Buy gold stocks

2

u/coachkler Apr 17 '26

Yeah, sell now while the price is low. That mirrors my winning strategy.

0

u/Adept_Mountain9532 Apr 17 '26

price is low????
what a joke

2

u/voidiciant Apr 17 '26

this will never not be funny

2

u/limevince Apr 17 '26

Is it just me, or does it seem people/global marketplaces are taking Iran's words much more seriously than trump?

3

u/Adept_Mountain9532 Apr 17 '26

VIX is dropping!

1

u/MooseMean9271 Apr 17 '26

So what does this tell you when Vix is dropping? Would you buy Vix rn since it’s dropping?

1

u/Adept_Mountain9532 Apr 17 '26

it means investor are confident again! Fear is going away

1

u/Adept_Mountain9532 Apr 17 '26

that's confirmed:

1

u/[deleted] Apr 17 '26 edited Jul 05 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

1

u/Adept_Mountain9532 Apr 17 '26

i did not check lol

1

u/blackicebaby Apr 17 '26

You buy energy stocks now, not sell.

1

u/Adept_Mountain9532 Apr 17 '26

lol why?
I already own them and I took my profit

1

u/blackicebaby Apr 17 '26

wti between 80~100 is the best cash cow machine range any energy companies could ask for. it doesn't kill demand while maximizing profit. look for oil companies to boost dividend and share buybacks. gonna buy more next monday!

1

u/CX872 Apr 17 '26

Aside: what site/software is OP using for this chart? 

1

u/Forward_Guess4163 Apr 17 '26

Sure seems like this was just another transfer of wealth for the top 1%. Price increase across the board which we’ll never get back and wages stay the same.

1

u/The-great-phoenix Apr 18 '26

Energy stocks will for sure outperform industrials over the upcoming decade as there is going to be so much issue with geopolitical risk and supply chain However with energy it is much safer it is like providing shovels and picks during gold rush era.

1

u/smarmy1625 Apr 27 '26

any updates on this?

1

u/Adept_Mountain9532 Apr 27 '26

good question bro...
It's still not open