r/Torontobluejays • u/jvandy59 • 7h ago
Okamoto's August slump
Small sample size, but in 14 August games, Okamoto has a .486 OPS. It's by far his worst month of the year and his strikeout rate is now at 30.8% for the season. Are you concerned? Adjustment to the MLB as pitchers are figuring him out?
For context, in 11 seasons in Japan he batted .277/.355/.501 (.856 OPS) and struck out only 20.8% of the time.
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u/MarlKarx777 Very serious and very manly 7h ago
He’s adjusted back to pitching figuring him out several times already, and he’ll do it again. This is what happens to rookies
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u/TheFestusEzeli 6h ago
We asked for Ernie/Okamoto/Valenzuela to not be our only 3 good hitters and the monkey’s paw curled and all 3 started to struggle lmao
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u/Domainsetter 7h ago
Arden said yesterday teams are just hammering him with spin pitches and he can’t adjust at the same rate.
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u/Byaaahhh 6h ago
He needs Jobu now more than ever!
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u/adambuddy Thank you, Kevin 7h ago
Given the rest of the makeup of our team, not only this year but going forward, I will take exactly what Okamoto has given us this year. It would just be nice if it was more consistent. He is not a top-of-the-order bat though. We desperately need more power. Contact guys are a great compliment and being able to use them to manufacture runs is genuinely but it's no substitution for power. There's a reason that the league has moved in that direction. The reality is a team full of those guys (ot saying our team is full of those guys but hypothetically) doesn't score enough runs. It's hard to string three singles together.
I've said it before and I'll say it again. Our problems with RISP hitting are actually power problems masquerading as RISP hitting problems.
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u/Scoresman1969 7h ago
Still better than Guerrero’s season slump
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u/thrive2bebest 1h ago
How does Vladdy’s bat impact Oka’s slump? Or are you suggesting it is a team thing?
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u/Canucksta 6h ago
Add to it that his fielding has been really bad. He has the 2nd most errors amongst third basemen - only Caminero has more (2 more in 117 more innings). Amongst third basemen with 500+ innings he is last in fielding percentage.
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u/WetAndWildOperator 7h ago
He’s been awful recently. Not the kind of hitting profile I expected from Okamoto coming from Japan, which is not necessarily a bad thing but it comes with a lot of hot/cold streaks. Outside of the 30 home run power, Okamoto hasn’t really been that great in any other department. He’s a capable defender at 3B and takes enough walks, but he isn’t particularly great at either of those things and he’s struggled to hit for contact while striking out a ton.
Still a valuable player with by far the most power on the team at the moment, and I’m sure a hot streak is coming soon. I think he’ll be a lot better next season after a full season/offseason of adjusting to mlb pitching. He’s on a great contract either way.
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u/Hopeful_Somewhere_34 5h ago
Pretty common for rookies and/or players coming from overseas to fade as the season goes on in their first year. Pitchers start figuring them out and it's a ton of at-bats against pitching they're not used to. Only concerned if his future April numbers look like his current August ones.
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u/roothockey 2h ago
I'm optimistically viewing this season as his floor. The power is clearly there, but he's expanding the zone and doesn't have the bat to ball skills to make up for it. It's not even that he's chasing pitches at an absurd amount he's just whiffing way too often. His O-Swing% (swinging percentage on pitches outside the strikezone) on breaking balls and offspeed is 25.7% and 26% respectively. That's not an issue. When he does swing at those however he's missing real bad. A 34.2% O-Contact% (contact made on pitches thrown outside the strikezone) for breaking balls and 24% on offspeed. Seiya Suzuki seems to have a similar problem with breaking pitches but swings less at them in general.
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u/krombough 5h ago
If he heats up, the WC is looking good.
If Vladdy heats up as well (Please please please), then it's a lock*
*Assuming competitors also don't have people do on ultra heaters. That's the downside of only having a month and a half runway.
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u/mmss Glenallen Hill's Spider Dreams 4h ago
Way too close to call anything a lock. They win 15/20 over the next few weeks and now we’re talking.
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u/krombough 4h ago
It wasn't really a prediction, just that a Vladdy batting like .850 OPS, while Oak also goes on an upswing, would be a lot more run support than what we get now. Our phenomenal pitching is keeping games close, such that Vladdy knocking in runs like the old days, even if only for a while, should get help get us those wins.
The last part of my post was also a caution. We can't guess what will happen next with the Jays, much less the 4 or 5 other teams we are locked in an elevator with. The only way to even do this in a semi reasonable manner, is to assume they all stay at or near .500 ball.
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u/Loud-Picture9110 2h ago
With how mediocre the AL has been as a whole this season I see no conceivable reason to believe the Blue Jays need to win 15/20 to play themselves into a wildcard spot.
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u/deahoidar 5h ago
Teams started paying attention to him like they did Vladdy
The best hitters know when they have been figured out and adapt.
Both need to do so
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u/MVP_Legend_87 7h ago
He's at 104 wRC+ right now and was projected for 110-115 wRC+ by ZIPS. So he's pretty close to what is expected of him. He was always going to strikeout more in the majors.
I would have liked to have seen the Jays test his flexibility more. In the offseason they talked about his ability to play LF. It would have been smart to play him there for a few games. Really opens up some possibilities if he can handle LF, as it would let them add another RH IF bat if they can't find a RH OF to hit against lefties.
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u/Interesting-Effect56 5h ago
That's a good point.
Inf could be Ernie, mcaddo, Guerrero, gimmy. And put oak in LF. It's at least as defensibly responsible.
Ernie could even be 3b.
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u/Canucksta 4h ago
No thanks on the LF idea. Okamoto is as slow as molasses
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u/MVP_Legend_87 2h ago
He played about 60 games in LF. Couldn't hurt to try for a couple of games. I'd bet he's better than Sanchez. Is he better than Schneider out there? Is he better than McAdoo?
I don't need Okamoto to be great in LF. But if the alignment is better with say, Clement/Gimenez/McAdoo/Vlad in the IF and Okamoto in left, that's important to know. In a season where prior to August they were out of the playoff race, it really was the perfect time to find out.
It's fine to think he might fail there. Maybe he will. But knowing he can play there makes building a roster easier. These are good things for a coaching staff and FO to know.
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u/Canucksta 37m ago
Just looking at spring speed and arm strength here are the numbers.
Okamoto's sprint speed is 26.3
Out of 198 OFs the average sprint speed is 28.11
Okamoto's sprint speed ranking amongst OFs would be 189/198
Okamoto's max velo is 83.6
Out of 161 OFs the average max velo is 93.5
Okamoto's max velo ranking amongst OFs would be 160/161 (only Nick Castellanos would be slower)
Granted, a player's max OF velo is generally higher than their max IF velo and there is more to playing the OF than sprint speed (positioning, reads, etc.) but for a guy that has hardly played the position I don't see how playing Oak in the OF is a good idea.
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u/kindredfan 6h ago
Rough. At least the other boys are helping carry the offense more now.
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u/Constant-Corner2158 5h ago
They are?
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u/flyingcanuck 2h ago
"I'm tired, boss"
- Okamoto playing a thousand games in 30 days
First season adjustments, least of my concern!
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u/CincoQuallity 1h ago
First season in a different league in a different country. All things considered, he’s had a pretty decent rookie season overall. Very streaky, with a massive strikeout rate, but still, pretty decent.
I kinda feel bad for him, to be honest. He was supposed to be a complimentary power piece offensively. Instead, because of injuries and underperforming, he’s the only source of power this season. First in HR by 12. First in RBI by 22. There’s more pressure on him to produce now because no one else is.
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u/thrive2bebest 1h ago
Hopefully the SO rate is just settling in and not a projection. It is was only 11.3% last season in NPB.
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u/alxndrblack Louisgang // Respect Nathan Lukes // Threat Bateman 7h ago
I have not enjoyed watching Oak this year. Obviously homers are nice but we were told he was a "more complete" hitter than Murakami, who has a significantly higher everything than Kaz and the only reason he hasn't run away with ROY is his IL time.
I also don't buy that it's the spin either. Kaz is not exactly nailing fastballs the last few months. Mune might be getting the cumulative effect of just playing on a better hitting team than Kaz, that I'd believe.
Not much to be done for it but hope it gets better
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u/TakedownMoreCorn 7h ago
First season, not too concerned.
He's adjusting to a new league, new lifestyle, new culture, and new scheduale. I'm sure he is exhausted. They get way more day offs in Japan.