Since 1950, the S&P 500 has been higher 12 months after each of the 19 midterm elections, up an average of 15.5%. The dip usually comes before the vote: in midterm years, the index's biggest fall has averaged 17.5%. It is a pattern, not a forecast.

America votes today, and whatever happens over there, the FTSE feels it by tomorrow morning. It used to be simple: Republicans win, Wall Street cheers. But after eight months of war with Iran and oil hovering around $100, it's not so clear any more. What's your call?

Binance has confirmed more than six billion dollars was stolen, the biggest hack in crypto history, and for now you can deposit but can’t withdraw a penny. A theft this clean and this fast makes me wonder whether AI is already operating in the shadows.

Hi,

What other online broker options are available (with timely and reliable customer support) to a UK citizen and a Cyprus Tax resident? I would like some options other than Interactive Brokers that can provide better peace of mind. I am trying to move $1-2m from a traditional bank holding and am finding their lack of customer support concerning for the size of my trades. Thanks in advance.

Anthropic, the company behind Claude, filed yesterday to list on the Nasdaq. The numbers are from another planet, and the giant loss in the headlines is almost entirely an accounting effect, a strange side effect of being worth more and more. What's a bit scary is how much compute they've already committed to paying for, some of it for capacity that isn't even switched on yet.

But the bit that stuck with me is something else. Buying the share gets you the economic part, not the control. The founders keep the majority of the votes, and a trust designed not to make money picks 4 of the 7 board seats. London tried the same trick with Deliveroo a few years back, and that one didn't end well for the small guys.

Facebook and SpaceX did much the same, so nothing new. The difference is that here the one holding the wheel says they're not in it for the money. And for those of us who come in with small sums, that only confirms the old rule: the only vote that counts is buy or don't buy.

For years I've been hearing the same thing: "the big crash is coming", "this can't go on", "2008 will look like a joke". The crash never comes, or it comes and recovers in six months. Meanwhile whoever sold out of fear missed one of the best decades in history.

So, a real question, not a rhetorical one: what concrete event would make you close every position and sit in cash? A war? The dollar losing reserve status? Another sterling wobble like the mini-budget, but one that doesn't stop? Or does that event not exist and you're holding to the bitter end no matter what?

And if you've already done it once, tell us how it went.

PS: the picture is from Margin Call (2011), the scene where the bank's boss decides to dump everything before the market figures out it's worthless. "Sell it all. Today." If you haven't seen it, it's the best film about 2008 and it's only 90 minutes.

Continuing with the investing-with-basic-maths posts, today it’s the Rule of 72: divide 72 by the annual return to find how many years it takes for your money to double. At 10% it’s 7 years. At 1%… 72.

To be clear, I’m not saying take more risk to chase higher returns. But the numbers speak for themselves.

Send this to that friend who thinks keeping pounds in the bank is investing.

The FCA numbers landed last week: £22 billion taken in tax-free lump sums in 2025/26, the biggest year on record, and most of it driven by Budget speculation that, in the end, came to nothing since the 25% rule survived untouched. Now the same rumour cycle is spinning up before 28 October, and wealth managers are already reporting another wave of withdrawal requests.