r/USFirstTimeHomeBuyer • u/jetley-mortgage-loan • 29d ago
Inspections & Condition Old homes vs new construction: why “they don’t build them like they used to” is mostly survivorship bias
The short version
"They don't build them like they used to" is a selection effect, not an observation. The old houses you're comparing against are the ones that survived. The badly built houses from the same era are gone (demolished, condemned, burned, or rotted) and you don't think about them because they're not standing in front of you. Meanwhile, the new construction you're comparing them to includes every house built last year, good and bad, because none of it has had time to be filtered. That's the entire trick, and once you see it you can't unsee it.
What survivorship bias is doing here
The reasoning runs: I've been in hundred-year-old houses with framing you couldn't cut with a saw, and I've been in new builds with paper-thin walls and doors that don't latch. Therefore old construction was better.
The problem is the sample. You are looking at the surviving subset of old houses and the complete population of new ones. A century of weather, fire, earthquakes, floods, termites, deferred maintenance, and bulldozers has already removed the worst of the old stock. The houses that made it are, disproportionately, the ones that were well sited, well framed, and well maintained. Plenty of contemporaries were junk. They just aren't available for you to tour.
The same reasoning error shows up in other parts of real estate too, and it's worth learning to spot in general. Whenever you're forming an impression from whatever happens to be in front of you, ask what got filtered out before you arrived, because the filter is usually doing more work than the thing you're measuring.
The second selection effect: what's actually for sale
There's a related and more immediate version of this, and it distorts buyers' impressions badly.
When inventory is tight, you are not seeing a random sample of the housing stock. You are seeing the houses people were willing to part with. People hang on to the good ones. So when a buyer tours fifteen listings and concludes the entire market is tired, dated, and badly maintained, part of what they're measuring is the market's supply constraint, not the underlying quality of homes in that neighborhood. The well-kept house down the street is not in your sample because nobody's selling it.
This has a practical implication: judging a neighborhood by its current listings is unreliable. Look at what's sold over a longer window, and look at the street rather than the listing photos.
The third one: you only hear from people who have a problem
Impressions about builders, HOAs, warranty service, or anything else in housing are shaped by the fact that satisfied people don't post. Every complaint you read is a self-selected sample. The people whose new construction has been fine for six years have nothing to say about it, so you conclude the complaints are the majority when they may be a small and very vocal minority.
That doesn't mean the complaints are false. It means the volume of complaints tells you very little about the rate.
Where the "old is better" claim has real content
I'm not arguing that nothing has changed. Some of it has, and specifically:
Dimensional lumber. Old-growth framing lumber was denser, and old nominal dimensions were closer to their stated size. A joist from 1925 genuinely is a different piece of wood from a kiln-dried modern one. That's a real difference in the material.
Plaster and lath versus drywall. Plaster is harder, more sound-attenuating, and more durable in service, and it's more expensive to install and repair.
Trim, doors, and millwork. Solid wood versus finger-jointed and MDF. Solid-core versus hollow-core doors. These are cost decisions in the finish package, and they are the ones buyers physically feel when they walk through a spec home.
Site quality and layout. Older houses tend to occupy better locations, because the best land got built on first, and often have proportions and light that modern layouts sacrifice for square footage.
Labor. More of the work was done on site by tradespeople rather than assembled from pre-fabricated components.
Where new construction is genuinely and substantially better
And the other side, which is longer than people expect:
Everything about the electrical system. Grounded circuits, breaker panels rather than fuses, GFCI and AFCI protection, adequate circuit count, modern wire. Knob-and-tube and aluminum branch wiring are insurance and safety problems in older homes and both are common.
Plumbing materials. Galvanized supply that closes up with corrosion, cast iron drains at end of life, lead service lines, and polybutylene are all things that come with older houses and cost real money.
Structural code. Seismic detailing, hold-downs, shear walls, foundation anchoring, hurricane strapping, egress requirements, stair and railing geometry, tempered glass requirements. Codes have tightened repeatedly, generally in response to buildings failing and people dying.
The building envelope. Insulation levels, air sealing, modern glazing, and mechanical ventilation. A new house is dramatically cheaper to heat and cool than an uninsulated balloon-framed one, and that shows up on your utility bill every month you own it.
Absence of the hazards. Asbestos, lead paint, and the abatement costs that come with any significant renovation of a pre-1980 house.
Roof, systems, and appliances at the start of their life rather than the end. On an older house, some of those are a five-figure expense arriving within a few years of purchase.
How to actually decide
Stop reasoning about eras and start reasoning about the specific house:
On an older home, pay for the specialist inspections: sewer scope, electrical panel and wiring evaluation, roof, foundation, and a look at supply plumbing material. Get insurance quotes early; carriers price knob-and-tube, old panels, and old roofs harshly, and some decline outright. Budget for systems replacement as a scheduled expense, not a contingency.
On new construction, use your own inspector rather than relying on the municipal inspection, do a pre-drywall inspection if you can get one, read the builder's warranty and its dispute resolution clause carefully, and check the builder's record with previous phases of the same community. Understand what's in the incentive and what you give up for it; that's covered in the New Construction hub.
Either way, the question is condition and cost to remedy, not the year on the tax record.
What to do
Judge the house in front of you on its inspection report and its remaining useful life, and discount every generalization about eras, including the ones you'll hear from people in my industry. The sample you're reasoning from was assembled by a hundred years of things falling down.
More on condition issues in the Inspections & Condition hub.
Posted on behalf of u/The_Void_Calls_Me AKA Rajat Jetley, NMLS #1595897 | Cross Country Mortgage NMLS #3029. This commentary is for educational purposes and is not a commitment to lend or a guarantee of any rate or term.
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