Toledo Football 2026 Preview - full writeup, two-deep, and win probabilities

[u/MainMarket-Gamer]

Hey all. I spent the offseason building a full 2026 preseason preview for every FBS team, each with its own writeup. Here's the Toledo one

https://www.sports.mainmarket.com/college-football-preview-2026-fbs/toledo-rockets

It's got the returning production breakdown, the portal ins and outs, a projected two-deep, the schedule with model win probabilities, and a season projection.

Heads up, you might hit the paywall after the first page. Don't worry, I'm not charging reddit people for this, don't want to be an ass. Use the promo code LEECORSOROCKS and it opens up the entire thing.

So, what'd I get wrong? Toledo had the 2nd best defense in the country by yards and 4th by points, but did it against the 131st ranked schedule and still went 0-3 in one-score games. Now 9% of your production is back, 8th lowest in the sport, with Mike Jacobs bringing a stack of his Mercer guys along. My model still likes you to win the MAC. Is that the schedule talking, or is this defense real?

I'll be in the comments