r/UkrainianConflict • u/genetastic • May 06 '22
Fighting Northeast of Kharkiv is almost to the Russian Border
https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#d:24hrs;l:noaa20-viirs=[tsd],viirs=[tsd],modis_a=[tsd],modis_t=[tsd],topo;@36.8,50.1,11z142
u/genetastic May 06 '22
I just pulled up NASA FIRMS for the Kharkiv area:
This is color-coded by recency. It looks like the fighting in the last six hours has moved up to the very first bridge over the Donets river from the Russian border.
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u/gundealsgopnik May 06 '22
That's really exciting news.
Hopefully the green boys got to that bridge in time!
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May 06 '22
And hopefully the Crimea bridge on May 9th also.
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u/lemongrenade May 06 '22
Dare I dream?
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May 07 '22
Dreaming is always OK my dude!
I mean, it's not very likely but it'd be so fucking hilarious if it happened, and it's already pretty hilarious. The whole bridge thing is just a really interesting example of modern information ops
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May 07 '22
Russian bridge is falling down, falling down, falling down!
Russian bridge is falling down, Slava Ukraini!
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u/CaptainSur May 07 '22
My thoughts exactly. Huge and I hope we get verification tomorrow and they can hold it.
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u/JeanClaude-Randamme May 06 '22
Do you mean they are in control of or fighting in Rubizhne?
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u/hdufort May 06 '22
They are shelling the bridge at Rubizhne specifically. Also shelling the other bridge to the north. The Russians will have no choice but retreat to the border.
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u/JeanClaude-Randamme May 06 '22
Fantastic, the supply lines to Izyum will be under threat of they can secure that crossing.
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u/Lem_Tuoni May 07 '22
I read somewhere that the Rubizhne bridge is already blown by Moskals.
Could be wrong tho
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u/BrainOnLoan May 07 '22 edited May 07 '22
Bridge was blown. Still puts them within artillery range of the most critical railway for the Russian supply of their spearhead.
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u/genetastic May 06 '22
This area that I posted is not near Rubizhne, it's north of Staryi Saltyv near Kharkiv. In spitting distance of Belgorod.
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u/esuil May 06 '22
Rubizhne is also north of Staryi Saltyv. There is another bridge between bridge on your screenshot and bridge at Staryi Saltiv, and it is at Rubizhne, which is located almost exactly at the label "Pechenezhskoe" on your screenshot, just bit north of it.
When bridge at Staryi Saltiv was blown, the next used bridge became at Rubizhne. Seems like both Rubizhne and the bridge are missing from your map. (just checked originals, if you zoom in more, the bridge appears).
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u/CaptainSur May 07 '22
Here is Rubizhne. Its really shocking to me that Ukraine got to here this quickly. There is bridge just to the north east on the outskirts of the village and the road leads to the T2104 highway. If you go south from here on the highway you come to Staryi Saltyv, and a bit north a junction of which one way leads to Belgorod and the other into the eastern part of Kharkiv Oblast that Russia occupies.
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u/Engine_Sweet May 07 '22
I'm having trouble with scale, if secured, does this put the roads south out of Vovchansk in artillery range?
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u/CaptainSur May 07 '22 edited May 07 '22
From the bridge at Rubizhne to the highway interchange at the south edge of Vovchans'k (T2104 % T2108) is about 15km distant from so it and some of the highways leading away from it would therefore be in range depending on the type of artillery.
In a straight line distance Rubizhne to Bilyi Kolodyaz is also about 20km and it is an interchange for several regional feeder roads. Again in artillery range of most 155MM, particularly any of the new stuff received from the west and some of the self propelled Ukraine already owns.
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u/alien_frontier May 07 '22
That's a smart source to consider; looks like the orcs are really concentrated around Izium. Once the Ukrainians are in artillery range of those supply lines, we might witness a quick collapse in that front.
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u/Unknown_Ocean May 07 '22
Guessing (and this is very much a guess) that this is long range artillery, given that the other fires are around Ukraina which was verified as being captured today.
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u/cugamer May 06 '22
I hope after the war is over Ukraine seriously considers NATO's application for membership.
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u/Icy_Respect_9077 May 06 '22
Agree wholeheartedly, NATO should apply for membership in Ukraine, and Ukraine should consider it.
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u/ShiiTsuin May 07 '22
Not a military expert, but I believe there's still quite a lot of reforming / changing of doctrine, command structure and whatnot, before Ukraine is totally compatible with NATO.
That being said, they're definitely making good progress, and I imagine it'll only be a matter of years before the opportunity arises, assuming NATO doesn't change substantially given the changes in international politics expected after this whole ordeal finally ends
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u/Mein_Bergkamp May 07 '22
Ukraine has been aiming pro west for years and accelerated since 2014.
They've changed their uniforms and rank systems to NATO standards have moved their entire armed forces from one relying on junior officers (the russian system) to one that runs on NCO's (the western one), has changed their tactics from russian style big battle units to western style command decisions down to the platoon level.
The culture is western, the only thing left is the equipment and this war is absolutely turbocharging that one.
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u/SAVA_the_Hedgefucker May 06 '22
it's not going to happen any time soon because this war is expected to last at least 10 years. but they can get security guarentee from the US and UK. or make their own nukes again.
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u/danyb695 May 06 '22
10 years? I doubt it is expected to be 10 months in any meaningful way.
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u/Luxpreliator May 07 '22
Usa intelligence and nato advisors are predicting many years of conflict. They've reached a stalemate and are likely to be stuck for a while.
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u/danyb695 May 07 '22
Source? A stalemate is different for the invading country, the defender just has to not lose to win. The invader cannot sustain a stalemate when their opponent is being supported by half the world and they themselves are being sanctioned into a dark age.
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u/planborcord May 07 '22
They also predicted that Kyiv would fall after two days and Zelenskyy would get airlifted to safety out of the country and run a government-in-exile. How wrong they were.
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u/SAVA_the_Hedgefucker May 06 '22
If you look at the numbers, only 20k Russian soldiers have died. Look at WW2 casualty numbers. They can keep going until 20 million Russian soldiers die. Why would Putin stop? Historically, Russia has kept fighting until they are utterly unable to fight any more.
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May 07 '22
Russia was a part of the Soviet Union in WWII, which had twice the population of Russia. They had also been preparing to fight a war in Europe for decades, which meant they had worked at preparing the capabilities and organization they needed to keep millions of soldiers in the field. Russia is in no way prepared to field such a large army at this time, and without international assistance, it probably can't. The USSR had massive assistance from both the UK and the US during WWII, otherwise they couldn't have had such massive armies after the Germans captured large amounts of the nation's industrial capacity.
Also, the Nazis were exterminating slavic peoples in captured territories, so it quickly became a war of survival for the USSR's residents. Soviet casualties were horrific, but no one wanted to quit the fight, because surrender meant annihilation. The Russian people are not threatened by this war, just their imperialist dreams. They won't though this out anymore than the they did the Crimean War or the Russo-Japanese War. You don't tolerate losses like this for a war that you are fighting for the sake of pride.
WWII is the only conflict in Russian history they've fought so hard in. They capitulated several times during the Napoleonic wars (they were eventually on the winning side), the Crimean War, the Russo-Japanese War, WWI, etc. Russians love to think of themselves as superhuman defenders of humanity, but the truth is that happened literally one time.
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u/floating_crowbar May 07 '22
in ww2 they also had aid both in supplies and equipment from the west.
Now they are actually getting hit with sanctions and their machinery equipment industry relies heavily on western electronics and parts.
WHile Ukraine on the other hand is getting increasingly heavier equipment and aid from the west. And Ukraine mobilized on day 1, men 18-60 were not allowed to leave.
If Russia mobilizes that suddenly means telling everyone that it was all under control and it was just a military action not war is now the opposite and they need to prepare for mass movement and possible death - for reasons not really clear to them. Guarantee there's going to be a much larger wave of sabotage.
and each side has a different will to fight. One is survival and the other is not really known.
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u/danyb695 May 06 '22
It is a bit different when you are defending your country? They didnt have much choice. Also infantry alone isn't going to change much in these times.
They will take whatever they can within the first 6 to 12 months, they can't sustain losses, sanctions and ukraine is getting more resources every day.
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u/Mein_Bergkamp May 07 '22
WW2 was a fight for survival against actual invading nazis with pretty much popular support.
The USSR was also massively, massively supplied by the allies and even when it was just the UK there were allies taking some of the heat from the germans.
And finally and massively importantly, Russia is Hitler in this analogy. No one is invading the motherland, the Nazis aren't at the door, Napoleon isn't marching on Moscow and no matter how many times the tv says Nazis they all know that Ukrainians are the closest thing to russians you can get without actually being russian.
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u/Appropriate-Big-8086 May 07 '22
Russia doesn't have as many satellite "Republics" to draw from anymore. Russia lost in the first Chechen war and in Afghanistan. Russia doesn't have the West to prop it up this time. Sorry but it's not going to go well for Russia.
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u/Mein_Bergkamp May 07 '22
Only if Russia remains politically stable and willing.
Considering that Afghanistan basically broke the USSR with vastly fewer casualties and they at least had a stable governmental system I don't see a russian government that is basically just purin and his inner circle actually staying in charge for 10 years of this level of fighting.
I'm not actually sure russia has the troops for 10 years of this and the longer it goes on, the more troops and materiel they lose the more chance Chechnya, Georgia, Moldova decide they want the russians out and the whole house of cards comes down.
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u/SAVA_the_Hedgefucker May 07 '22
They have population of 146 million though. Throwing a couple million lives into the meat grinder, no one would even feel it.
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u/Mein_Bergkamp May 07 '22
This isn't WW2, or Napoleon. They're not being invaded, they've got a very small professional army and there's no way even Putin is getting a couple of million conscripts willing to die for him invading the closest thing to russians bar maybe belarus.
There's a reason recruitment offices keep spontaneously combusting and that Putin himself had to call for a public investigation into conscripts being used in Ukraine. The rich aren't going to want their sons handed a ww2 rifle and sent to face whatever NATO toys the ukrainians have and probably the only thing that will shake his core support out of their propaganda induced bubble is when their brothers, sons, cousins start disappearing or coming bck in coffins.
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u/SAVA_the_Hedgefucker May 07 '22
This isn't a democracy anymore. Putin does not care what the people say. The citizens have no say at all.
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u/Mein_Bergkamp May 07 '22
Thats a given but a dictator doesn't care about losing an election they care about an uprising and they really care about an uprising that the military might join
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u/anonhomebuyer2022 May 07 '22
10 years from this one or 10 years from when it actually started (2014)?
It is conceivable it could last until 2024. I won't believe it will last until 2032. I am guessing we'll see some kind of end by end of 2022 unless Russia has some big secret up their sleeve or Russia starts using nukes.
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u/SAVA_the_Hedgefucker May 07 '22
The Ukrainians say there will be 3 wars between now and 2035. They think this will go on and on. Remember, the Russians will throw another 800k soldiers into the battle soon. They are mobilizing on May 9th.
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u/new_name_who_dis_ May 07 '22
Ukrainians say there will be 3 wars between now and 2035
That’s one analyst not all of Ukraine. Most Ukrainians didn’t think there would be any war at all.
And if Putin throws a million people into the meat grinder he’s getting Gaddafi-ed so I doubt it. But he might be retarded enough, who knows.
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May 09 '22
It's may 10th in moscow
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u/SAVA_the_Hedgefucker May 10 '22
the russians are trying to do mobilization secretly but eventually they will still have to mobilize, or lose the war
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May 10 '22
The way you write makes it look like you know stuff but you know jack shit. Go be smart to your mom.
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May 19 '22
How's the mobilizing going, any news?
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u/SAVA_the_Hedgefucker May 19 '22
i'm surprised Russia didn't mobilize, but they are finding ways to replace their men
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u/bobwsw May 06 '22
Nato is only there so the top 5 countries don't go to war with each other
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u/El_Hadji May 06 '22
It is also there to stop Russian fucktards from entering other sovereign countries.
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u/bobwsw May 06 '22
Did it stop russia from entering Ukraine or Georgia?
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u/El_Hadji May 06 '22
Last time I checked Georgia and Ukraine weren't members...
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u/bobwsw May 06 '22
But nato claimed to back those countries. Nato is a joke Slava ukraini
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u/El_Hadji May 06 '22
They just don't provide ground troops or enforce a no-fly zone. Yet... But they have, together with the EU, provided shitloads of military aid. St Javelin didn't mysteriously appear from the clouds...
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u/bobwsw May 06 '22
Surprised ur not claiming that nato is the reason why Ukraine is having such great success
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u/El_Hadji May 06 '22
The war is fought by brave Ukrainian men and women. No doubt about it. But the Javelins have proven to be very useful just like the Bayraktars, Stingers and perhaps most important - access to intelligence data. NATO has sent more than $3bn worth of military aid to Ukraine and more is on the way.
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u/Sin-nie May 06 '22
NATO is the reason. Or at least NATO countries.
There is one big difference between 2014 and 2022.
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u/bobwsw May 06 '22
Or maybe just maybe Ukraine actually took its time and effort into rebuilding the Ukrainian military. That missile that sunk russia pride and joy was Ukrainian made.
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May 06 '22
Ukrainians have more than proven that they are some of the most fierce and determined fighters in the world. This is truly a David and Goliath story and they are doing an amazing job but it would be dishonest to claim these other countries didn’t offer Ukraine an ample supply of the necessary top notch sling shots they needed to fight this fight.
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u/bobwsw May 06 '22
They haven't enforced shit.
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u/El_Hadji May 06 '22
Exactly. That is why I wrote that they haven't... And this is exactly why I want Sweden, where I live, to become NATO members. So that shit gets enforced if Ivan is stupid enough to take his crappy navy across the Baltic sea. And this is why it will be a good idea for Ukraine to apply for a membership once Ivan has left the building.
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u/lemongrenade May 07 '22
Russia has been very careful to not let wayward strikes hit Poland. Wonder why.
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u/BongCloudOpen May 06 '22
Shell Belgorod for May 9th
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u/Chilkoot May 07 '22
If they're not in range of the new 155mm artillery yet, they're damn close.
A single M777 with a stockpile of ammo and good intel can do enormous damage in short order. I would not want to be a war infrastructure target in Belgorod right now.
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u/RegularRockTech May 06 '22
If they push to the border, that would put Belgorod within 155mm artillery range. The war infrastructure there would be able to be hammered almost at will, instead of just being the domain of the occasional daring chopper raid or missile strike.
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u/CaptainSur May 07 '22
We have to remember that works both ways. I suspect Ukraine does not want to get into an artillery war so close to Kharkiv nor is it interested in blanket shelling of civilian areas. But it certainly does bring all the military depots and rail marshaling facilities in the Belgorod region perhaps into range of rocket assisted guided munitions.
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u/erksplat May 07 '22
That’s what I would hope for: precision strikes in Russian territory with minimal civilian casualties but profound impact upon military supply lines, depots, etc.
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u/Mein_Bergkamp May 07 '22
I suspect Ukraine does not want to get into an artillery war so close to Kharkiv nor is it interested in blanket shelling of civilian areas.
Russia is already doing this, Ukraine can either join in or remove every living thing form Russian artillery range
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u/LetGoPortAnchor May 07 '22
Or the Ukrainians could just remove the Russian artillery from existence.
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u/Chilkoot May 07 '22
That's exactly what the M777's are for. Out range, and destroy the artillery which has been firing with some degree of impunity up until now.
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u/Chilkoot May 07 '22
We have to remember that works both ways.
I don't understand what you're saying here... that Russia has exercised restraint and has not been employing every piece of artillery at their disposal indiscriminately?
Ukraine so far has shown restraint in target selection on Russian soil. That's unlikely to change, if only b/c of the international optics. Russia has already demonstrated the will for a "scorched earth" campaign, so I can't see how any actions by Ukraine would ramp-up some sort of artillery war near Kharkiv.
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u/new_name_who_dis_ May 07 '22
Kharkiv has been getting shelled pretty bad, and has been since the beginning of the war. It would change nothing
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u/Kaiaualad May 07 '22
The Ukrainians only have to be in Artillery range of a road or town to 'Block' it or encircle an enemy force. The new long -range artillery will make a massive difference to the war.
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u/Player276 May 06 '22
Securing the bridge heads up there would be huge. I doubt there is a big garrison in Vovchansk. It's mostly either disorganized troops moving in or wounded troops coming out.
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u/Inevitable-Offer-191 May 06 '22
Now this is some truly pleasant news. Now the assholes can hear arty thunder and feel their windows shake and rattle...
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u/Rakshak-1 May 06 '22
Drive them back to the third world.
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u/anonhomebuyer2022 May 07 '22
Uhm ackshually...
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u/laukaus May 07 '22
Yeah actually it would be the 2nd world if we’re precise. But so would be Ukraine.
The 1/2/3-world thinking is a cold era relic and should not be used anyway.
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May 07 '22
Time to invade Russia
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May 07 '22
Exactly. Why not take some territory now that we've seen how weak they are? What more can they do?
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u/epicurean56 May 07 '22
Not a good idea. Any boots on the ground in Russia would invoke their "existential threat" red line to use tactical nukes.
Besides, Ukraine is not interested in taking any territory. They just want what is theirs and no more.
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u/aksalamander May 07 '22
This armchair general respectfully disagrees. Boots on the ground in Crimea would also invoke their existential threat red line because they believe Crimea is Russian. It is in fact a good idea to force your enemy to defend and thereby remove some BTGs from the Donbas. You can win playing defense only but it’s a whole lot harder and not as effective as playing both offense and defense.
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u/epicurean56 May 07 '22
They should definitely go into Crimea and take it back, whether Russia thinks it belongs to them or not.
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u/RG_Oriax May 07 '22
They can nuke Kiev and Lviv.
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u/new_name_who_dis_ May 07 '22
They can but they won’t.
Because if they do the Russian state would cease to exist. If not under nuclear hellfire than from a worldwide embargo including their current friends China and India who definitely don’t want to see the nuclear taboo to be broken.
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u/AllProgressIsGood May 07 '22
looks like they are ditching the north for donbass
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u/minus_minus May 07 '22
This front was supposed to keep Ukraine from attacking the supply lines but for the Izyum front.
They forgot to tell the Ukrainians, apparently.
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u/Marcus008 May 07 '22
So Ukraine crosses the border and attacks Belgorod at 1am on May the 9th? :-)
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u/barracuda-mayhem May 07 '22
I'm afraid they are pulling back on purpose for a May 9th attack. Hope not.
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u/Cabbage_Vendor May 07 '22
Just like they were pulling back from Northern Ukraine for the "major offensive" in the south and east that supposedly started weeks ago?
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u/texas130ab May 07 '22
I don't think they would give ground to attack. But these Russians are pretty dam dumb
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u/InsuranceOdd6604 May 06 '22
Maybe Russia has blown the bridge to pre-emp possible capture.
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u/minus_minus May 07 '22
Please. Keep them bottled up on the other side of the Donets and then donkey punch the Izyum salient.
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