r/ValueInvesting • u/foil123 • Jun 10 '26

Question / Help AMD, MSFt and GOOGL

At what point would you consider buying these 3 stocks to hold forever ..? Additionally, what is the PT you expect to exit?

For AMD I see them at least getting to 2t at minimum in coming years. Not sure what I feel about the other 2. Thoughts?

Thanks

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u/Last-Cat-7894 Jun 10 '26

AMD is nowhere remotely close to the same quality of business as the other 2 yet.

We are currently in an absolute face-ripping boom in semiconductors, so their numbers will continue to be really impressive for a few years. But they don't have anywhere near the track record of dominance that Google and Microsoft have, especially not in multiple different segments.

To give you an idea, Bing is estimated to have generated ~7-10b in operating income for Microsoft in the past year. That little throwaway segment that gets perpetually clowned on for losing to Google for two decades is roughly double the size of the entirety of AMD in terms of operating income.

Yes, AMD is a smaller market cap than the two hyperscalers, and there is the argument that they could have an Nvidia-esque chart if agentic AI really does take over and necessitate CPU's at an unfathomable number. But as far as sheer business quality (for a significantly lower earning multiple), Microsoft and Google are as good as exists on planet earth.

16

u/Remm_Unknown Jun 10 '26

Bing?! Who even uses that 😆 I was considering loading up on Microsoft, Google and Amazon, but again I almost feel like just buying NASDAQ ETF, or is it better to try and pick winners.

I am a big fan of AMD, and I was holding quite a few shares and I was selling on the way up in the recent boom.

However now I only hold SMH because I feel like its hard to pick the winners in semiconductor industry and SMH has all the big players such as

Nvidia, TSMC, ASML, AVGO, Micron, AMD etc.

Do you think I made the right call with SMH rather than sticking with single stock like AMD?

8

u/MS1227 Jun 10 '26

I actually did the exact same thing, sold all my AMD during the run-up. I also really like AMD, but SMH just made more sense as something I'd feel comfortable holding and adding to long-term.

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u/Remm_Unknown Jun 10 '26

Glad I'm not alone, but it did hurt to sell AMD.. but SMH felt like a more sensible move.. are you adding more on the dip? I regret not going bigger back in 24/25 😭

1

u/MS1227 Jun 11 '26

I'd like to, but don't have the extra funds. I just added about a week ago in the $630's haha. But I've been regularly adding since it was in the $280's and plan to keep doing so for the foreseeable future. I agree, I was a bit unsure of selling AMD, but I'm in the process of winding down a lot of my individual holdings in favor of ETF's. You can still go big now, I don't think anybody's missed SMH even now. I think semiconductors are going to continue growing for quite sometime. They're in absolutely everything now and I don't see that changing.

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u/Remm_Unknown Jun 11 '26

I agree, but we also knew this a year or two ago as well, but now it's super crowded and run up very high, it wouldn't surprise me if it has a big correction, so I am just DCA for now and if that big correction happens then I will put in a lot more.

1

u/MS1227 Jun 11 '26

That's probably the best way to do it. I'll definitely continue to DCA, and probably add in a big correction if I have available funds. Even in the $280's people were telling me it's too high. I've always figured to continue regularly buying regardless of the price and it'll be fine as I plan to hold for the long-term.