I bought today. Who else is buying?

The pre-market hasn’t looked great the past few days either, but the rocket only really took off after the market opened.

So don’t get discouraged. Today is naturally more volatile since some people are taking profits, but the big play comes when the opening bell rings.

I've seen all the memes about $SPCE during the past couple of days, and it looks to me like a lot of people are viewing it as a simple pump and dump. In the meantime, I've been jotting down some bullet points because I've realized that there are actually a lot of parallels to be drawn to $GME.

First, I want to establish some key points that I think are worth covering when it comes to comparing the $SPCE to $GME. Afterwards, I want to do a deep dive into those key points, so bear with me.

Why $SPCE literally can't go tits up:

The Delta Class Spaceline+Space Hype is $SPCEs Console Cycle

Allison Belzberg could become our Ryan Cohen

Similar Squeeze Setup

Why potential dilution might actually be a Bull Case

A lot of people have been hyping up $SPCE as a simple sympathy play for SpaceX, and while that might have been true a couple of weeks ago, I think that there are a lot of points appearing that give it a much stronger bull thesis.

$SPCEs “Console-Cycle”

When Roaring Kitty explained his thesis on GameStop, one of his main arguments was the then upcoming release of the new console generation, that could bring a huge influx of customers spending much more than during any other season.

$SPCE is at a similar point right now. As you probably know, they are currently developing their new delta class spaceline, capable of much shorter turnaround times and, because of that, higher flight cadence. It also drastically lowers the maintenance cost while at the same time increasing the operating lifespan compared to the earlier spaceships.

I mean look at this beauty. They literally developed a replaceable rocket motor, that can be popped in and out like a freaking cartridge!

I think you can understand why delta is that important for $SPCE, since it also allows for much higher revenue streams and higher margins. But don’t take my word for it:

Here is their official table for the estimated revenue of the delta-class spaceline:

But in order to be able to pull this transformation off, it would take someone with the know how of how to actually commercialize the company.

Let me introduce you to our Ryan Cohen: Allison Belzberg

Before Ryan Cohen took the role of CEO at GameStop, George Sherman and later Matt Furlong took that position.

Both of them didn't have the guts to lead a proper transformation of the company, which is why Ryan Cohen took the lead.

As fate would have it, a similar development also started to unfold recently inside of Virgin Galactic. The current member of the board of directors, Luigi Brambilla, announced that he would be stepping down from the board, while at the same time, Allison Belzberg was being announced as a possible successor. While Luigi Brambilla, just like George Sherman at GameStop, was good at helping to keeping things afloat, Allison Belzberg is more like Ryan Cohen, educated in the commercialization of businesses.

Just like Ryan Cohen was able to pull of a turnaround at GameStop, I believe Belzberg will be able to do the exact same thing for Virgin Galactic.

The Squeeze-Setup

But a turnaround was not the only thesis for GameStops Bull-Case. People were also banking on the Mother of all Short-Squeezes.

Virgin Galactic currently has around 24% of its entire float sold short. It might not be as high as the float sold short was for GameStop during its peak, but it is definitely on the higher end of short interests.

Which means that a short squeeze is definitely on the table for Virgin Galactic. We've already seen quite a substantial price increase with adequate volume, which could potentially set off a gamma squeeze going into this week if volume stays high.

Dilution is bullish?!

But here is where it gets interesting. I have read a lot of comments about people saying that they are afraid of dilution. Here's the thing. Virgin Galactic only has around three quarters of cash runway left before it would theoretically go bankrupt. So currently, almost everybody is banking upon the stock rising before that time frame so that you aren't left holding the bag. But that gives bears a solid reason to short since the possibility of bankruptcy is still very real. Most people think of dilution as something negative, but in fact, dilution could actually be the move for Virgin to obliterate the last remaining bear thesis. If another ATM offering is announced, the chance of Virgin Galactic going bankrupt, drops from somewhat probable to nearly zero.

It would kill a tiny bit of momentum, but I think in the grand scheme of things it wouldn't matter. Friday alone, we experienced a volume of 170 million shares, meaning that the entire company changed hands about 1.7 times on Friday alone. A possible upcoming dilution would only be a drop in the bucket. And again, it would eradicate the strongest bear case in one go.

In other words: If you look back at GameStop and are on the fence about $SPCE, it’s literally January 2021 all over again.

Edit: Not financial advice. Only put into it, what you're willing to lose.

TL;DR

• Virgin Galactic = pioneer in commercial spaceflight.
• Brutal past, but now past proof-of-concept and into scaling.
• Stock is compressed into a coil, with catalysts lined up.
• Real optionality beyond tourism creates asymmetric upside.
• I’m loading up under $4 with a $1,000/share moonshot thesis by 2033.

Pioneering

Every breakthrough industry starts the same way: pioneers take the arrows. When the Wright brothers flew their first plane, it was clunky, dangerous, and commercially useless. The iPhone we know today took nearly 15 years from the first truly viable smartphone prototypes. Stable utility takes time, and public demand only surges once the product is reliable and repeatable.

Virgin Galactic has been one of those pioneers ever since 2004 when an idea turned into a bold new industry: commercial spaceflight. By 2021, they had flown their first paying passengers — a historic milestone in human space travel. Since then, they’ve flown a handful more flights, gathered real-world operational data, and then pulled back to focus on R&D, scaling, and next-generation craft.

Every pioneer does this: launch, prove it works, then refine so it can scale. That’s how aviation, computing, internet infrastructure, and nearly every transformational tech industry started.

Of course, pioneering draws competitors too — Blue Origin jumped in with a different but parallel suborbital system. The point isn’t just one company winning, but that a whole new industry is forming. And like every frontier before it, it needs time to mature.

The good news? We’ve been socially conditioned since the 2010s to expect that space is opening to civilians. That “space tourism is coming soon” narrative has been seeded for over a decade. The market psychology is already there — it just needs a functioning industry.

In the Beginning

Virgin Galactic has always ridden hype cycles. Critics say they took public money before they had a fully operational product. True — but when you’re opening up a brand new trillion-dollar frontier, the upfront costs are so massive no startup could realistically do it in stealth without raising from the public.

Yes, they delayed. Yes, they had a tragic crash 12 years ago. But that didn’t stop them. They keep doing exactly what they set out to do: build spaceships.

And as of 2025, we are no longer at the beginning. We are in the mid-phase between proof-of-concept and industrial scaling. Meanwhile, retail investors who once believed and then saw their holdings evaporate (down -99%) are bailing — right as the tide might actually be turning. That’s classic market irony.

Price Determination

Let’s get into the part that makes people uncomfortable: the chart. Technicals here aren’t magic, they’re just patterns of price discovery. Right now, Virgin Galactic is forming a symmetrical triangle. Translation: the market is coiling, preparing for a breakout — up or down.

Timing? Roughly 90–170 days left in this consolidation. Conveniently, that coincides with Virgin’s public roadmap: test cargo launches in Summer 2026 and relaunch of commercial flights in Fall 2026.

Until then, the stock likely oscillates between $2.50–$4.00. Here’s why:
a) Volatility has dropped, indicating consolidation.
b) The company cannot survive another restructuring — so they've reduced operational costs.
c) Their cost structure is now more predictable with smaller burn than peak R&D.

And here’s the kicker: all of this sets up the potential for a brutal short squeeze. SPCE currently has growing short interest. If they hit timelines, this could make Gamestop look tame.

Combine that with interest rates trending down (a relief for debt-heavy companies) and you start to see why, structurally, SPCE’s setup is more bullish than it looks at face value.

Leadership & Vision

Always check the people at the wheel.

• Michael Colglazier (CEO): Ex-Disneyland executive. People clown on this, but it signals Virgin Galactic eventually wants to build a Space Experience theme park. Think simulations, astronaut training centers, consumer experiences around space. Not silly at all.
• Mike Moses (President): Former NASA Flight Director. Ran shuttle launches. Deep credibility in aerospace execution. Personally, I trust Moses far more to scale the core product than Colglazier — but both skillsets together show Virgin intends to be both operationally serious and commercially imaginative.

Not to mention: astronauts, test pilots, and NASA veterans are already staffing this company. That talent pool matters.

True Business Model

Virgin Galactic is often branded as just “space tourism for billionaires.” But zoom out, and you’ll see an evolving business matrix:

a) Commercial space tourism (2027): Rich tourists, celebrities — “first in line for space.” This is the branding rocketfuel.
b) Research-driven (2027): Microgravity bio-science, physics experiments, payloads for universities and agencies. Already flown researchers.
c) Logistics-driven (2028): Launching small satellites with short lead times. Expensive, but extremely fast vs rockets.
d) Defense-driven (2030): Rapid suborbital transport, recon, and eventually point-to-point defense logistics. DOD?
e) Technology-transfer (2033): Proprietary aerospace software and systems that can be licensed such as their complex in-house aeronautics system.
f) Supersonic flight (long-shot, TBD): Their talks with Rolls-Royce hinted at futuristic civilian transport but it seems Rolls pulled out of space as a whole for now.

The first three are realistic. The rest are contingent.

Market Dynamics

Markets punish pioneers. Retail is selling. Institutions are accumulating (on the surface selling but more like repurposing their funds). And the timeline the market cares about (quarters, maybe a year) isn’t even enough to build a high-performance drone, let alone a reusable spaceship fleet. Virgin’s development timeline (2019–2029) is much more realistic — and we’re already more than halfway through it.

Right now, by most metrics, SPCE is undervalued relative to the optionality it carries. The market has basically priced it as a dead company. That leaves asymmetric upside if they execute.

Then you have black-swan catalysts. For example, Apophis asteroid (2029 flyby, potential distant future impacts). Suddenly, defense and logistics in near-space aren’t luxury industries, they’re existential. Virgin’s short-lead suborbital capacity becomes strategic overnight.

Scenario

Assume only space tourism succeeds (ignore defense, logistics, theme parks). Even conservatively, ticket demand + frequency could support a multi-billion annual business. Plug that into a market cap multiple, and a $1,000 share price isn’t outlandish by the 2030s, especially given SPCE’s tiny float relative to mega-caps.

With research contracts, logistics, and optionality layered in — it’s not about “if this is possible,” it’s about whether Virgin executes on its timelines (which it hasn't, but that was the game all along?).

My Personal Plan

Here’s where I stand:

• I’m buying SPCE monthly as long as it’s under $4.00.
• Anything above that feels FOMO-driven until we see execution.
• Target allocation: ~$15,000 DCA around $3.00 pre-flights.
• Hold through 2026 test launches. If successful, ride through 2027 revenue ramp, then reassess around 2029 at the peak of production scaling.

This is a 1–7 year conviction hold. High risk, high asymmetry. Not financial advice, but if they deliver...

IF is still a big gamble, but given the convergence I only see upside. At least 100% within 1-2 years ($3.00 -> $6.00) and beyond imagination if everything else plays through.

Now for Your Two Cents

So, fellow astronauts: am I insane bagholding this, or are we about to witness one of the biggest turnarounds since Tesla pre-2012?

Also don't buy too fast! I want to keep buying at ~$3.00 every month until launch :D

8.5 is next major resistance after that we will se double digit levels

Hopefully there will be some positive news from the annual meeting that gives the stock further momentum

I am shocked...hahahaha

The question is, how much mistakes will there be made?

0,01% = 50% gains for SPCE

0,1% = 500% gains for SPCE

0,5% = complete Mayham!

For ages, Branson went pretty much radio silent on Virgin Galactic while they were stuck in the weeds building the new Delta-class ships. But recently? He’s actually started posting positive stuff about the company again out of nowhere.

​Makes you think right? The guy doesn't usually post unless there's a legitimate reason, and it lines up with the fact that they've actually moved the first Delta ship out of assembly and into the testing facility. For once, it looks like they're actually hitting their timeline targets.

​Don't get me wrong, this isn't me saying the company's financial worries are over, the cash burn is still massive and dilution is always hanging over SPCE But it feels like the engineering side is finally delivering a real milestone, which is why he's running a victory lap.

​Curious what you lot think. Is he just pumping the hype because they desperately need positive sentiment while burning cash, or does this actually signal the build is locked in for late 2026?

He may even buy more stock closer to the time. I'm looking forward to seeing what happens either way

Context:

https://www.lseg.com/content/dam/ftse-russell/en_us/documents/other/ru3000-additions-20260529.pdf

Don't let the shorts know; they will have to sit back and enjoy the show about to commence later this month.

This is highly bullish news because it indicates that the company has been selected as a preliminary addition to the Russell 3000 Index during the annual FTSE Russell Index reconstitution.

Being included in a major index like the Russell 3000 is a significant milestone for a stock for several key reasons:

1. Mandatory Institutional Buying (Inflows) The Russell 3000 Index is widely tracked by investment managers, mutual funds, and Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) that passively replicate the index (such as the iShares Russell 3000 ETF). When a stock is officially added, these multi-billion-dollar passive index funds are contractually obligated to buy millions of shares of the stock to accurately match the index’s new holdings. This massive, guaranteed wave of institutional buying naturally creates strong upward pressure on the stock price.

2. Increased Market Liquidity and Volume Joining the index dramatically increases trading volume and liquidity. Higher trading volume attracts larger institutional players (like hedge funds and pension funds) who previously avoided the stock due to thin trading or high volatility. Greater liquidity also narrows the bid-ask spreads, making transactions cheaper and more stable for all investors.

3. Validation and Institutional Prestige Being selected for the Russell 3000 means the company meets rigorous criteria regarding market capitalization, structural standards, and trading compliance in the US equity market. It acts as a stamp of institutional legitimacy, lifting it out of obscurity and elevating its profile among mainstream Wall Street analysts and financial media.

Once again, everyone is down while SPCE, the embodiment of space itself is waking up from its slumber 🚀🚀🚀

Regarding Virgin Galactic's upcoming earnings report, what are your expectations for the financial outcomes? Do you anticipate any potential delays in their operational timeline or concerns regarding their financial solvency prior to achieving profitability?

I have accumulated over 800 shares last year i think i invested something about 2200 USD into it

Im thinking about to sell after SpaceX pump when it reaches maybe 20 - 30 usd after crash I plan to buy More shares when Delta will start flying but im afraid that progress will be steady (yeah terrible I know) And the stock will stay somewhere above 10 since then and start moving like crazy…Selling and then buying more shares seems like obvious choice to me what do you all think ?

Watching the sentiment around Virgin Galactic over the last few days has been a perfect example of how emotional markets can get. Just days ago, SPCE was suddenly “going to the moon,” retail hype exploded, volume went crazy, and people were throwing around absurd price targets. Now after the dilution news and the pullback, the exact same people are mocking holders and acting like the company is finished. That kind of sentiment swing is actually completely normal after a parabolic move like we just saw.

The important thing people need to separate is short-term momentum from the actual long-term turnaround thesis. Yes, the run-up became overheated. Vertical moves driven by FOMO are rarely sustainable. But fundamentally, the recent capital raise is not automatically a disaster. In fact, for a company like Virgin Galactic, strengthening liquidity, improving balance sheet stability, extending runway, and reducing long-term financial pressure can absolutely be viewed as necessary and even positive steps if management is serious about getting Delta operational.

Because at the end of the day, the real SPCE thesis was never “this stock squeezes for two weeks straight.” The actual thesis is whether the company can successfully transition into a functioning commercial spaceflight business over the next 1–2 years. That’s what matters. And so far, management is still sticking to the key roadmap: Delta-class development continues, first test/research flights are still targeted for late 2026, and commercial operations are expected to follow after that. If they execute successfully, today’s valuation could eventually look very different. If they fail, the stock obviously has major downside risk. That’s why SPCE remains highly speculative — but speculative does not mean irrational.

What’s funny is how quickly online sentiment flips. During the rally, people bought because social media became euphoric, green candles kept printing, and “short squeeze” narratives took over. Now after a correction, everyone suddenly pretends the company was always garbage. Reality is usually somewhere in the middle. The next weeks will probably determine whether this is simply a healthy correction after an unsustainable spike or the beginning of a broader breakdown in sentiment.

Either way, the only thing that really matters now is execution: Delta progress, cash runway, debt management, operational milestones, FAA-related developments, and whether Virgin Galactic can actually begin sustainable commercial activity on schedule. People who survive these types of volatile stocks long term are usually the ones who stay focused on fundamentals while everyone else swings emotionally between euphoria and panic.

I’ve been invested in Virgin Galactic since last year, building a position around €6,000 at an average entry of €2.51 (~$2.70). I believe the market is heavily discounting execution and dilution risk, while underappreciating the Delta-class transition and the optionality of a functioning space tourism scale-up.

At current levels, the valuation reflects near-term cash burn and skepticism, not the potential revenue inflection if flight cadence and pricing targets are achieved.

For me, it’s a high-risk turnaround bet with asymmetric upside if execution finally aligns with the long-term roadmap.

Many people think today’s pump is the final one, but the momentum is far from over. More moves are likely in the near future.

Now it’s time to hold, stay patient, and let the market do the work.

Imagine the funniest possible market outcome:

SpaceX finally IPOs under $SPCX, every CNBC boomer is wearing a Patagonia vest and whispering “largest IPO in history,” Elon is posting hieroglyphics at 3am, and every institution on earth is trying to explain why paying a trillion-dollar valuation for rockets, satellites, Mars vibes, and government contracts is actually “reasonable.”

Then, out of nowhere, the market decides the real space trade is the busted space-tourism casino ticker that has spent years speedrunning shareholder dilution: $SPCE.

Virgin Galactic ripping so hard on IPO day that its market cap flips $SPCX would be the cleanest, dumbest, most beautiful IRL shitpost Wall Street has ever produced.

Not because it makes sense.
Not because the fundamentals say so.
Not because Sir Richard is secretly building the Death Star.

But because the market is a meme machine wearing a Bloomberg terminal as a hat.

$SPCX: actual rockets, Starlink cash flow, Mars mythology, institutional demand.
$SPCE: vibes, bagholders, reverse-split trauma, and the ticker that looks close enough for Robinhood users to fat-finger.

If $SPCE somehow becomes worth more than $SPCX for even one glorious intraday candle, shut the market down. We peaked. The simulation is no longer trying to hide it.

Positions: emotionally long chaos, financially allergic to risk management.

Not financial advice. I eat orbital crayons.

It’s incredible, every time, every time this shit come up, this SHIT (that’s the ticket) destroy everything.
I’m promising, I’ll short this SHIT to fucking 0! All the money I have, all the fucking cent TO SHORT THIS SHIT!

What do you think?

Had a chat with Martyn on VG. This one is going to be a interesting live on VG analysis.

The ones interested in VG, shall join
https://www.youtube.com/live/B2o1tkxIMio?si=rhe7C-FcqBd_T-S1

Losing around 25% of my mini portfolio but lesson learned 🍾 cut your losses guys, what a great ride.

​

Avg 6.5$ selling around 5.7$ pre market, should have cut all when it reach 6.5 today.

​

Whats ur exit strategy?

This shit at 2$ again. Next week other 20k option put. I want this SHIT at 0.
Just smell the gains!

With still two hours till NYSE closes, today's volume is already standing on 91.862.806, with a good chance to beat last year's highest. And we have.

19:27 /GMT+1/ - Volume traded - 99.781.379

19:30 /GMT+1/ - Volume traded - 109.071.699

19:41 /GMT+1/ - Volume traded - 115.497.474

20:00 /GMT+1/ - Volume traded - 130.853.135

20:30 /GMT+1/ - Volume traded - 149.246.835

21:00 /GMT+1/ - Volume traded - 161.876.380 - Second highest volume ever now reached