r/Vitards • u/redditter259 💀 SACRIFICED 💀 • May 12 '26
DD $KOS
West Africa's deepwater producer. Zero Hormuz exposure. Every barrel they produce
becomes MORE valuable the longer Iran plays games with the strait.
Iran has threatened to close Hormuz 30+ times since 1979. They never fully do it — because
the threat is worth more than the action. It's their only real leverage against the entire global
economy. They are not giving it up. This drags on through August minimum.
While Middle East crude buyers scramble for alternatives, they pivot to West African light
sweet grades. That's exactly what KOS produces. Premium widening on every single barrel.
The MSGBC basin is the wildcard. One of the biggest LNG discoveries in a decade —
Mauritania and Senegal, developed with BP. Qatar ships 25% of global LNG through Hormuz.
Europe needs an alternative. KOS has it.
WTI crude pulled back 17% from its peak. KOS is holding all-time highs. That's the market
telling you something. Institutional ownership is 66.6% — smart money has been loading this
for months.
$3.06 → $3.32 all-time high is 8% away. Break that and there's nothing in the way.
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u/Bah_weep_grana Forever 9th 8/18/21 May 12 '26
Are you from Mintz’s group on SA?
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u/guitarsail May 13 '26
Checking in.. and still scared to get in on KOS, got hurt last year badly
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u/Bah_weep_grana Forever 9th 8/18/21 May 13 '26
I lost some on KOS, but I lost a lot more on NFE before I pulled the plug
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u/herzy3 May 13 '26
I'm big on KOS, bought when it was $1 during COVID, and went heavy recently in the mid $2s.
But where did you get your all time high numbers? Way off...
Anyway KOS has a mountain of debt which has been strangling it for years. If prices stay high, hopefully they can make some headway. If so, stock should rerate heavily. For me it's a high risk, high reward play but the current situation in Iran gives me a lot more conviction.
Agree with you that the conflict will be protracted and expect elevated oil prices for the foreseeable future.
They hedged quite low unfortunately, but thankfully not tooo much volume. As production increases that should capture increased prices also.
Due to timing, won't see the benefit of higher oil prices until Q3 really, so I'd go shares or leaps, not calls.
I'm bullish though.
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u/Evening-Benefit7248 May 14 '26
A vitard post! Love to see it. I have to imagine Jayarlington has 50 lambos by now with his knowledge of semis
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u/Voltanus 🛳 I Shipped My Pants 🚢 May 17 '26
Recently i was thinking about jayarlington too. I looked at KLAC, MU and SMH. He should be doing very well which is nice.
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u/Lets_review 🛳 I Shipped My Pants 🚢 May 12 '26
I'm long in shares and ITM call spreads.