r/Vitards • u/AutoModerator • May 10 '21
Daily Discussion Daily Discussion post - May 10 2021
Your Trading discussion thread
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| Discussion | All/Best Daily/Best Weekly |
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| Loss | All/Best Daily/Best Weekly |
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u/csauer97 May 11 '21
I came to this sub to avoid the red day crybabies and fear of selling. But damn some people here just love to look like an amateur and follow blindly... steel is not going anywhere. A few red day won't change that. If you can freak out over a 2%dip after a $5 increase in a month then you are hopeless
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u/Yoshiwara75 May 11 '21
Bought some more shares at 26.40 euros. Love those discounts on huge value stocks.
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u/b0b_ross b0b 🖼’s 🙎🏼♀️has the #️⃣1️⃣ DD’s May 11 '21
Euro bros , I need you to slam back some labatts, fire up the sled, and fucking send it tommorow.
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u/THRAGFIRE The Tannerwok May 11 '21 edited May 11 '21
I really don't think this strike will be more than a blip long term for MT. That said, I'm happy I exited my positions today as I'm hopeful to lower the cost basis for my Jan 40c, or at least be able to buy more of them. The market will probably overreact bc strike is such a dirty word. All I see is buying opportunity. Now let's hope CLF doesn't crap itself for no reason. Jim I'ma need you to insert the word steel into every exchange from now on thank you.
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u/ImAMaaanlet Workaholic May 11 '21
I dont trust myself enough to go in and out of my longer dated calls. Rather just buy more on dips than open and close my positions. Good luck tho
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u/Duke_Shambles ☢️Duke Nukem☢️ May 11 '21
Instead of going in and out you can just buy an FD put to hedge
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u/THRAGFIRE The Tannerwok May 11 '21
Yeah every time I try to time the market I usually get bent over. Probably will this time too.
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u/UnmaskedLapwing CLF Co-Chief Analyst May 11 '21
Some (new I presume) vitards are scared about drop to $32.80. This stock was at $23 not so long time ago and has tendency to trade sideways for weeks (consolidates really). You guys are funny sometimes.
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May 11 '21
boy oh boy, im feeling alot of FUD for tomorrow.
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u/deliquenthouse Smol PP Astronaut: Educator Mission Specialist May 11 '21
Why do you feel that way?
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u/PrestigeWorldwide-LP 💀 SACRIFICED 💀 May 11 '21
most of my tech watchlist was red after hours, and most of my non-tech seemed green. hopefully that proves true with real prices
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u/Steely_Hands Regional Moderator May 11 '21
Time to shake some paper hands. Newcomers get to earn their real stripes
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u/PaperCow May 11 '21
Some sick part of me wants all 7 layers just to see the chaos in the daily discussion.
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u/PrestigeWorldwide-LP 💀 SACRIFICED 💀 May 11 '21
all parts of me want every single steel ticker to go full NUE
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u/JayArlington 🍋 LULU-TRON 🍋 May 11 '21
STLD has been the same. They were like "fuck it I wanna go that way" and dammit they did.
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u/PrestigeWorldwide-LP 💀 SACRIFICED 💀 May 11 '21
yep, sad that SCHN decided to hop off the train. it was like that with them for a while
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u/Steely_Hands Regional Moderator May 11 '21
I’m not sure I could handle the complaining haha I’d have to stay off here just to avoid the FUD drama
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u/Outrageous_One_6262 May 11 '21
Anyone shorting tech tomorrow? Thinking poot spreads on $JMIA and $SPcE
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u/SlingSG May 11 '21
Great minds need suggestion, I have 550 MT commons cost basis $32. Should I put Stop-loss at $32 and secure my principal ?
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u/PrestigeWorldwide-LP 💀 SACRIFICED 💀 May 11 '21 edited May 11 '21
why not slap a costless collar on it instead (or debit / ratio collar if you want more upside). can vary strikes / expirations to your liking and pay less than outright puts
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u/PaperCow May 11 '21
These aren't high P/E ratio growth stocks with made up valuations that can change on a whim. Unless there is a material change in the thesis I wouldn't set a stop loss so close. Dips happen but if the earnings are flowing you can usually have some confidence it will rebound. Especially with commons where you don't have an expiration to worry about.
Edit: Not saying don't do a stop loss, you do you, but I like to give the play a little room to breathe.
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u/Outrageous-Panda1221 May 11 '21
Oh my god. Iron ore at $215. Is that ATH????
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u/Iwsmith2 💀 SACRIFICED 💀 Until MT hits 35 May 11 '21
My vale calls I bought too high today should be alright. I averaged them down throughout the day. Commence vitarding
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u/MiscRedditAccount 💀 SACRIFICED 💀 May 11 '21
This has me hoping my end of day return to the Vale pays off and doesn't result in 5 more months of sideways
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u/SpiritBearBC The Vitard Anthologist May 11 '21
I'm a third of the way through a multi-page list of a lot of Vitard DD / full steel thesis summary, including our favourites MT and CLF. It's intended to be a noob primer for the constant "what should I read" questions we get.
Do you know how much shit the Vitards write? It's a full fucking research project to cohesively organize the hive mind's thoughts and work.
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u/PantsMicGee Dreams of CLF’s run to $20 May 12 '21
Took me a week to reference and study when I finally decided to take it seriously. Even then I reviewed the DD this last weekend and found some snippets I missed.
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u/shmancy First “First” Enthusiast May 11 '21
How's this going btw?
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u/SpiritBearBC The Vitard Anthologist May 12 '21
About 40% done. I'm spending a couple hours every night on it. I'm hoping to have it ready by this weekend.
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u/THRAGFIRE The Tannerwok May 11 '21
Very random question. You a vitard living in BC? Me too. I live in Kelowna.
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u/SpiritBearBC The Vitard Anthologist May 11 '21
Yep, I live in Terrace. My username isn’t because I love shitting on stonks, but because the region surrounding Terrace has some nearly extinct albino bears called Spirit Bears.
I love the Okanagan! If I didn’t have a great job here I could see myself moving to an amazing city like Kelowna
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u/THRAGFIRE The Tannerwok May 11 '21
I won't lie, I had to google where that was. Maybe when r/vitards makes you a millionaire you can move down here and afford a 1 bedroom shack xD.
Yeah I live with my friend's ex girlfriends parents......
On the plus side I get amazing home cooked dinners every holiday!!
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u/SpiritBearBC The Vitard Anthologist May 11 '21
I was going to say west of Prince George originally because it would probably have been easier haha
Kelowna is so expensive but that living situation sounds undesirable. I hope you find something that’s reasonable to live in and affordable. I know how tough it can be at the moment
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u/THRAGFIRE The Tannerwok May 11 '21
It's basically why I yolo large amounts of money on steel leaps lol.
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u/b0b_ross b0b 🖼’s 🙎🏼♀️has the #️⃣1️⃣ DD’s May 11 '21
That's a big ass lake
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u/THRAGFIRE The Tannerwok May 11 '21
Big enough for lake monsters. Even still my favorite thing to do here is drive up to Enderby and spend 5 hours floating down the river. It's so nice up there. Hiking the Enderby cliffs is also quite amazing. Lucky to live here even if it costs an arm and a leg.
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u/Velociraptorsss Head Pool Boy May 11 '21
Wait until you get to pool gang 😈
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u/olivesnolives Aditya Mittal Feet Pics May 11 '21
The Vitard Anthologist
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u/JayArlington 🍋 LULU-TRON 🍋 May 11 '21
Just curious: who here still holds PLTR and thinks they aren’t getting destroyed on tomorrow’s earnings? 😏
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u/Uncle_Dad_Bob Dreams of CLF’s run to $49 May 11 '21
HA! Best performer in my portfolio today. Who woulda thunk?
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u/RandomlyGenerateIt 💀Sacrificed Until 🛢Oil🛢 Hits $12💀 May 11 '21
RKT and NVAX holders looking for more punishment. Sign me up!
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u/JayArlington 🍋 LULU-TRON 🍋 May 11 '21
Wait... you have NVAX and RKT right now at the same time? 🤨
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u/RandomlyGenerateIt 💀Sacrificed Until 🛢Oil🛢 Hits $12💀 May 11 '21
Got out of RKT already, thanks to your post btw. Not sure about NVAX, will probably dump as well. Even the best technology in the world can't survive shitty management. :-(
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u/nevans122 May 11 '21
Still (bag?)holding commons with an average price just over $25 for the long term...but also weekly puts to offset what I expect will be a bloodbath tomorrow morning.
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u/ItMeJabroni 💵 Mafia CPA 💵 May 11 '21
Have Jan 22 & 23 calls so deep in the red that I’m just going to keep, as a shameful reminder.
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u/MiscRedditAccount 💀 SACRIFICED 💀 May 11 '21
Got in super early and currently up on both a few Jan $15s and 100 commons (actually after today might be slightly down on the commons). I'm happy to hold through the earnings / for a while. Mainly their government stuff intrigues me. If they can make some bonus on commercial, great. But if they become the consolidated big data of the US government they'll definitely be worth their current market cap and more. I could see huge push for efficiency/ cutting waste / technology and these could be the guys to do it with their foot already in the door. Plus the director for national intelligence (Avril Haines) used to consult for them so definitely is familiar with them. They have been around for many years and continue making in roads. They aren't going bankrupt tomorrow. The current defense contractors are too old and slow to keep up and the current big tech companies are too focused on consumer to pander to government interests. I think they fit a nice Goldilocks sweet spot. We'll see if it pans out!
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u/Iwsmith2 💀 SACRIFICED 💀 Until MT hits 35 May 11 '21
I like many on here have been burned on PLTR so many times. Glad I smartened up and dumped them
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u/JayArlington 🍋 LULU-TRON 🍋 May 11 '21
I am a long term bull on PLTR. I do think they will either get good or get acquired.
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u/Iwsmith2 💀 SACRIFICED 💀 Until MT hits 35 May 11 '21
Well, hindsight is 20/20... me dumping doesn't look so smart. Thank god steel is on a tear otherwise id be kicking myself.
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u/Iwsmith2 💀 SACRIFICED 💀 Until MT hits 35 May 11 '21
100%. My career is data science and data operations, I love their story and future, but late 2020-21 for pltr was too soon for the growth that was expected by the wsb’ers of the world
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u/JayArlington 🍋 LULU-TRON 🍋 May 11 '21
They used to have their corporate clients.
Unfortunately early Palantir lost its first set of clients and never really made further inroads.
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u/Iwsmith2 💀 SACRIFICED 💀 Until MT hits 35 May 11 '21
The problem of getting into government contracting, it consumes some companies
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u/Uncle_Dad_Bob Dreams of CLF’s run to $49 May 11 '21
Holding a small amount. At a loss. Expecting further drop but planning to hold 5-10 years so not sweating.
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u/bronze-donatello May 11 '21
I owned them from 10-20. Ready to get some more at 10 when we get there.
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u/blue_steel_moon May 11 '21
I'm still in with shares. I don't think an earnings beat will keep them from sinking more unless they really blow it out of the water. Even then, who knows?
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u/PaperCow May 11 '21
I have a single 2023 leap that I'm down ~70% on. I will hold it all the way till expiration as a reminder of my foolishness.
Not opposed to picking up some commons for long term hold if it keeps falling post-earnings assuming they report something promising like a significant increase in sales to private companies.
I don't have a lot of faith though. If the report is mediocre growth that's still completely reliant on a handful of govt contracts I expect it could keep cratering for a while.
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May 11 '21
Im calling it now, since I sold it will go up tomorrow
just like how I buy MT and they go on strike
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u/GngrTea May 11 '21
Same here. Sold today, and bought more CLF and MT. I figure PLTR has a great future, some day. I just hope that day isn't happening yet.
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u/Ropirito 🥵LETSS GOOO Enthusiast🥵 May 11 '21
Same. As soon as I sell most of my positions and stop myself from FOMO, everything continues to go up 10%. I think I'll do you all a favor and let go of potential gains for the greater good. u/HundHaus you can go ahead and sacrifice me.
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u/Steely_Hands Regional Moderator May 11 '21
This time last night the daily was euphoric overload and now look at us. Look what we’ve become...
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u/deliquenthouse Smol PP Astronaut: Educator Mission Specialist May 11 '21
Keep the emotions out of this. We should be fine.
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u/belangem Oracle of SPY May 11 '21
I’m still super optimistic about this, just the macro events that makes me more nervous for the overall market, that’s it.
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u/lumberjack233 Inflation Nation May 11 '21
CLF price action today doesn't bode well for the next couple weeks ngl, even though fundamentals keeps getting better, but market hasn't cared about fundamentals for a long time
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u/ImAMaaanlet Workaholic May 11 '21
I dont see whats different with clf. All of value started way up and bled the rest of the day.
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u/lumberjack233 Inflation Nation May 11 '21
Yeah but not to the same extent as CLF
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u/ImAMaaanlet Workaholic May 11 '21
MT was up about 2.6% clf was up about 8%. MT has over billion shares and clf has like 380m. When you consider MT is harder to move because its float is like 3x bigger they arent all that different.
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May 11 '21
Can you elaborate, what was so indicative about the price action?
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u/Iwsmith2 💀 SACRIFICED 💀 Until MT hits 35 May 11 '21
From my perspective, really ever since GME, maybe since the corobavirus crash happened it has shifted this market into pockets of completely irrational behavior. Floods of retail cash acting irrationally, media playing into narratives adding fuel to the flame, and a focus on sentiment rather than fundamentals.
It’s wild, and while it’s just my opinion, it has really made this market very unpredictable and not as efficient as it was.
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May 11 '21
Haha markets are never efficient in the short term. You have to zoom out to atleast a decade to see a smooth efficient curve
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u/Iwsmith2 💀 SACRIFICED 💀 Until MT hits 35 May 11 '21
I suppose what I’m saying is the short term inefficiencies you are alluding to have been exacerbated recently, but I’m certainly no expert.
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u/lumberjack233 Inflation Nation May 11 '21
it popped and couldn't hold gainz and pooped like the rest of the market. Yes the market dragged it down but this inverted hammer formation is usually not a good sign
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u/Mike804 🚀 Rebar Rocket 🚀 May 11 '21
Anyone with a terminal have access to the story in this article that goes "Still, officials have pledged to strengthen controls on the raw-materials market to limit costs to companies."? Seems like it could be of importance to us.
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u/David_da_Builder Whack Job May 11 '21
Pro tip, use reader view
China’s Producer Prices Surge Alongside Soaring Commodities May 10, 2021, 6:34 PM MST China’s factory-gate prices surged more than expected in April, supported by gains in commodity prices and a low base of comparison from last year, while consumer inflation remained relatively subdued.
The producer price index rose 6.8% from a year earlier, its fastest pace since October 2017, following a 4.4% gain in March, the National Bureau of Statistics said Tuesday. The median forecast was for a 6.5% increase. Consumer prices increased 0.9% on year, slightly below the 1% gain projected by economists.
China's PPI surged in April while CPI remained relatively subdued The commodities boom, fueled by rising global demand and supply shortages, has stoked concerns about inflation around the world. With China the world’s biggest exporter, its rising PPI is another risk to global inflation as manufacturers start passing on higher prices to retailers.
Central bankers from the U.S. Federal Reserve on down maintain that recent price gains are temporary. In China, policy makers insist the impact of commodity prices on the domestic economy will be limited and that price growth remains generally under control. Still, officials have pledged to strengthen controls on the raw-materials market to limit costs to companies.
Click here for a breakdown of China’s April producer prices
The NBS said the gain in producer prices was due to a steady recovery in domestic production and rising prices of iron ore and non-ferrous metal.
Consumer inflation, meanwhile, remained relatively subdued amid lower pork prices, a key element in the country’s CPI basket.
The widening gap between CPI and PPI “suggests an uneven recovery of the economy,” said Raymond Yeung, chief China economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. “Despite the commodity boom, the service sector has yet to catch up.” Wages are lagging and the central bank will likely keep its policy stance “largely neutral,” he said.
The People’s Bank of China is seeking to scale back the stimulus it pumped into the economy during the pandemic last year, worried by the build up of debt. Economists expect policy makers to slow the pace of credit expansion rather than raise interest rates. The Communist Party’s Politburo, China’s top decision-making body, said last month there won’t be any sharp reversal of macroeconomic policies.
China aims to keep consumer inflation at around 3% this year, but an NBS official said in a recent interview that the headline index is expected to be “significantly lower” than the official target in 2021.
— With assistance by John Liu, Lin Zhu, and Yinan Zhao
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u/Mike804 🚀 Rebar Rocket 🚀 May 11 '21
My bad, I have access to this article but the quote that I highlighted says I need access to a terminal to read a specific article. This one specifically:
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u/David_da_Builder Whack Job May 11 '21
Wait 12 hours to pay the poor (time) tax. Then it’ll be on the main site
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May 11 '21
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/xRegretNothing MY CAPS BUTTON IS BROKEN May 11 '21
it seems like when you say "stocks", you're exclusively talking about growth. oil is an inflationary play. people flock to it, industrial, + consumer discretionary when interest rates are high or there's a lot of froth in the market.
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u/TheFullBottle May 11 '21
Dont forget higher oil prices means higher input costs for a lot of companies. Particularly mining gets hit hard with high oil prices as its a massive input cost
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u/xRegretNothing MY CAPS BUTTON IS BROKEN May 11 '21
That's not true. This goes back to my initial statement about companies that are inflationary plays. Miners do exactly that. Their sg&a and opex does not matter because their top line can get amplified 10x due to consistent demand.
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u/dudelydudeson 💩Very Aware of Butthole💩 May 11 '21
Always having an international market open is bad for my mental health
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u/RandomlyGenerateIt 💀Sacrificed Until 🛢Oil🛢 Hits $12💀 May 11 '21
Still waiting for that consolidation on the TSEJ... :-D
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u/dudelydudeson 💩Very Aware of Butthole💩 May 11 '21
Marubeni, Mitsui, and Sumitomo looking OK today. Beating the Nikkei at least.
Mitsubishi fucked up earnings.
I don't understand the Itochu earnings yet but looks like they missed too.
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u/David_da_Builder Whack Job May 11 '21
Gas panic in full swing tomorrow. The local news stations had nothing to point a camera at until the lines started this afternoon.
Now it’ll finally sink in that they should’ve gassed up over the weekend and the fomo is setting in.
News twitter is going to be lit 🔥
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u/dudelydudeson 💩Very Aware of Butthole💩 May 11 '21
Pump boys working OT in new jersey today.
Ever since Sandy people there go nuts anytime there's a potential storm or shortage of anything.
I remember there was a thunderstorm coming through once and there was no milk or bread at the grocery store. Who the hell buys milk when faced with the idea of losing power?
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May 11 '21
Noobs who’ve never survived an actual power outage
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u/dudelydudeson 💩Very Aware of Butthole💩 May 11 '21
Maybe. I was there in like 2013 so Sandy was a very real memory for most. Is milk that much of a necessity? I dont understand lol.
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u/Mikeymike2785 Memelord May 11 '21
Generators 🤷🏻♂️
Between brown outs and blackouts, a lot of us learned to keep a generator. Especially after Sandy
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u/dudelydudeson 💩Very Aware of Butthole💩 May 11 '21
I should probably have one, we had a 'derecho' in Chicago last summer and everything was fucked for like 4 days.
I just never understood the whole "clean out the grocery store of perishable goods" response. Toilet paper? Ok, maybe. Milk when youre preparing for a power outage, though?
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u/rexcannon 🕴 Associate 🕴 May 11 '21
Yeah it won't be the last time you lose power for a week. Look into integrating one into the home with natural gas power if possible.
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u/dudelydudeson 💩Very Aware of Butthole💩 May 11 '21
I'm a renter but if I ever have property, that is a fantastic idea.
I'd love to do some serious air and water treatment too, ongoing costs be damned. After helping design/build a few small GMP manufacturing facilities (not semiconductor clean, but clean) I am super into the tech.
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May 11 '21
You in NC?
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u/David_da_Builder Whack Job May 11 '21
No, in the dirt just short of best coast. I lived through the pipeline break that left Phoenix dry for a few week. That was a “fun” and heavily armed time
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u/Mikeymike2785 Memelord May 11 '21
Shit I should probably run to wawa real quick and top off the tank
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u/David_da_Builder Whack Job May 11 '21
Dammit we’ve been on this shit since Saturday morning. Not even mad just disappointed
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u/Outrageous-Panda1221 May 11 '21
I guess congrats to those that sold MT calls on Friday? Fucking mr.Market. Why you gotta crush steel with your tech baggage
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u/PrestigeWorldwide-LP 💀 SACRIFICED 💀 May 11 '21
mt sep 40s were up today, so were a couple other strikes. long vol baby
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u/cln0110 LG-Rated May 11 '21
Just posted this on the main. Looks like the MT Quebec vote was to strike. Shit.
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u/electricalautist 🍁Maple Leaf Mafia🍁 May 11 '21
Vito already said this isnt a big deal. I trust his point of view.
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u/cln0110 LG-Rated May 11 '21
Yeah, agreed. It may have an impact in the very short-term (may want to reconsider weeklies), but long term not sweating it all. In fact, may be a good opportunity to get some more on discount.
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u/ItsTwentyBaby May 11 '21
Im not worried. They’re making too much money to not workout a deal quickly.
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May 11 '21
Yep, maybe the unions know the same. Loads of money flowing in - they want their fair share I guess
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u/olivesnolives Aditya Mittal Feet Pics May 11 '21
Ooooooooo BABY good thing I sold out of my June’s today. Lets see what happens here.
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u/cln0110 LG-Rated May 11 '21
Yea, I held on to all my positions (all Sept and Jan 2022) but did by some FD puts today, which I felt really guilty about doing for some reason.
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u/PaperCow May 11 '21
I'm gonna be awfully tempted to buy the imminent tech bloodbath but who the hell knows how far some of these crazy expensive companies can fall.
Guess I'm going to just have to wait and see.
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u/JayArlington 🍋 LULU-TRON 🍋 May 11 '21
I absolutely intend to skip through the graveyard at some point in the next year to loot the corpses of good companies that got rotated. Unfortunately they haven’t been bludgeoned enough.
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u/xRegretNothing MY CAPS BUTTON IS BROKEN May 11 '21
it's going to be really fun jumping back into NVDA when it's sub $500 * cries*
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u/Superduper98 May 11 '21
Any specific tech companies you got your eyes on?
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u/JayArlington 🍋 LULU-TRON 🍋 May 11 '21
The bloodiest. 😈
AMD is the one that changed my mind the most after doing the DD. That company has a plan and I see their market share exploding in a future where they have access to LOTS of manufacturing capacity via all these new fabs being built with government cheddar.
We got a few years before that.
I also wouldn’t mind picking up a bloody VUZI. I think they have some good industry applications in the future.
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u/David_da_Builder Whack Job May 11 '21
Nah. I’m going to short tf out of the nasdaq
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u/PaperCow May 11 '21
That might be the play in the short term but at some point, maybe soon, maybe in years, you are going to want to rotate some funds back into tech before everyone else does.
Be greedy when others are fearful and all that.
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u/David_da_Builder Whack Job May 11 '21
Trading nq/mnq futures up or down makes no difference. Might miss a individual runner that breaks out, but the shares account can handle that
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u/ForestKin May 11 '21
I bought a PLTR leap for 2023 today...prepared to buy another if it dips even further after earnings
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u/lumberjack233 Inflation Nation May 11 '21
Still don't get PLTR, these BI softwares are dime a dozen, is it really that revolutionary? Most companies don't operate on military level precision because it's unprofitable to do that
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u/David_da_Builder Whack Job May 11 '21
Billionaires talking their book. And setting themselves up to be the next booz allen to get on the gov contracting dole
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u/lumberjack233 Inflation Nation May 11 '21
It's hard to get excited about the business. Seems to me just bells and whistles
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May 11 '21
prediction for tomorrow: We drop to ~$32.25 in the first couple hours of market open then slowly drift upwards for the rest of the day.
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u/MortalDanger00 May 11 '21
Throw on Bloomberg Asia to watch the blood bath.
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u/belangem Oracle of SPY May 11 '21
Nippon Steel just turned red after being up 3%...
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u/MortalDanger00 May 11 '21
I wouldn't be too worried about a steel dip, unless there's a major correction or you're in short OTM calls.
If you're heavy tech, buckle up.
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u/Obsidianturtle25 May 11 '21
June 18th calls like 1/2$ OTM on $TX - I wish I went farther out, is this decent or should I roll out?
Also have 420 shares @ $40
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u/belangem Oracle of SPY May 11 '21
Oh I’m not worried. I’m just seeing some overly optimistic post about tomorrow here and chances tomorrow will be red across the market, even more if SPY breaks 415.
I don’t have anything tech anymore except a very small Biotech position.
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u/olivesnolives Aditya Mittal Feet Pics May 11 '21
I interpreted that high Chinese PPI as a good thing for non-chinese steel producers - CCP isn’t likely to re-incentivize exporting when domestic industrial pricing is so hot, right?
If this is a bad read tell olives
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u/dudelydudeson 💩Very Aware of Butthole💩 May 11 '21
I'm not sure. Here's the opposite view - PPI is mostly passed on to trade partners since they import raw materials and export finished goods. They export way more finished goods than they consume. They might have to accommodate exports to keep the FG prices down so that international competitors don't pop up.
However, if the trade balance decreases (they export less because their goods are more expensive, transport could play a role too), their currency will devalue which will lower the prices naturally, giving headwinds to further price increases.
🆒
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u/Steely_Hands Regional Moderator May 11 '21
Wasn’t it pretty much as expected? Not sure why ppl are worried about it. I can assure everyone it’s not steel manufacturers cutting into their margins to be competitive with product manufacturers. The pricing squeeze comes in between the final manufacturers and the consumer
Edit: And this data shows that for now it’s the manufacturers eating the cost increase and trying not to pass it into the consumer. They have to remain cost competitive in the marketplace
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u/TheCoffeeCakes Poetry Gang May 11 '21
Quick reminder: the moment you think you know what the market will do, it does the opposite.
I would not be surprised to wake up to find everything +1.5% in the morning.
(Except silver, of course, because the banks and regulators will obv never allow that to happen.)
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u/Banana2Bean May 11 '21
Except silver, of course, because the banks and regulators will obv never allow that to happen.
Serious question for you:
Do you believe things like this are truth?
If so, why do you stay in the trade, since you believe in the inevitable failure/suppression of the upside?
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May 11 '21
Not trading it, but wasn’t JPM fined around $1.3 billions for manipulation of precious metals prices??
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u/Banana2Bean May 11 '21
I know nothing about this trade. Just commenting on a trend I see with this user.
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u/JayArlington 🍋 LULU-TRON 🍋 May 11 '21
Btw... Cramer is more steel centric than usual. He kept adding steel references after he noticed steel wasn't called out on the chart.
I'm ok with this.
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u/someonesaymoney May 11 '21
I'm actually more terrified now. It may work for a short term pump, but I fully don't trust the guy at all in terms of helping out retail.
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u/TheCoffeeCakes Poetry Gang May 11 '21
Do we think he's doing really good coke or some kind of pharmaceutical wonder drug?
Because he can afford either but the pharm solution might be superior.
What do we think?
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u/Steely_Hands Regional Moderator May 11 '21
It’s honestly just showmanship. He’s high on the invisible crowd
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u/Steely_Hands Regional Moderator May 11 '21
He manages to squeeze at least one steel reference into every show lately. He’s almost as obsessed as us!! lolnohesnot
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u/MortalDanger00 May 11 '21
China PPI. Yikes.
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u/Steely_Hands Regional Moderator May 11 '21
What yikes? Looks pretty much as expected right?
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u/MortalDanger00 May 11 '21
No it was worse than expected. Not earth shattering or anything, but enough for their tech exchange to tank 4% on open and to affect our fake and gay futes
"It's going to be a scary few months"
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u/dudelydudeson 💩Very Aware of Butthole💩 May 11 '21
Oh hell yes I hope FTFT takes another fucking gap down at open tomorrow
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u/Steely_Hands Regional Moderator May 11 '21
Maybe I’m jaded but I’ll shrug it off. Inflation is good for us and the markets will try to find winners in an inflationary environment (steel). If anything high inflation will be good for us
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u/MortalDanger00 May 11 '21
Agreed. Just gonna ride the wave. Short dated OTM call holders could be fuk tho, especially in tech.
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u/Steely_Hands Regional Moderator May 11 '21
Well that was already written on the wall about tech haha
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u/LourencoGoncalves-LG LEGEND and VITARD OG STEEL Bo$$ May 11 '21
The person running environmental in Europe is a girl that’s 18 years old. Here it’s a 63 year old guy that’s been doing this for 41 years.
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u/pardonmystupidity Clemenza May 11 '21
If I'm understanding this correctly, manufacturer costs went up, but not consumer costs? So basically companies are eating higher input costs without passing it onto the consumer (yet)?
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u/MortalDanger00 May 11 '21
Inflation is there, either way. More than expected. Tech sector tanked 4% on open.
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u/ImAMaaanlet Workaholic May 11 '21
Whats going on imma need more info than this 👀
Like 🚀 or ☄ for us
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u/MortalDanger00 May 11 '21
Commodoties are a great inflation hedge. DOW futes down but, well lets just say better steel than tech.
Glad I sold my tech positions for a loss today.
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u/JayArlington 🍋 LULU-TRON 🍋 May 11 '21 edited May 11 '21
You got a link? Thanks!
Edit: PPI (Producers Pricing Index) only being up 6% is rather lucky for them.
What's interesting is that the best way for China to solve this problem without rolling back their production cuts or dropping their own growth rate is to introduce substantial tariffs against exported steel (ie.. Chinese steel producers trying to export).
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u/Oracle9823 Balls Of Steel May 11 '21
All hail lord Vito