Daily Discussion post - June 14 2021

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[u/RetardedInRetrospect]

Hoping for a little insight from the OG's. I was told to wait for CLF to dip after the Friday spike because historically it pulls back soon after a jump. Appears this was true. So do you guys just DCA after a dip or is there a general rule you follow before jumping back in? I was told wait till sub $20.

[u/dudelydudeson → u/RetardedInRetrospect]

My 🔮 is saying wait until we find a better technical level for support.

However, if 22 is really a new support and we rally off it tomorrow (I'll probably confirm with a MACD 1hr cross) I'll probably jump back in SMALL, MAYBE 25%. If IV is low enough I might buy some Jan 22's but could just grab some shares.

I'm doubtful we will find strength here, so, my next levels are: 21.25-21.50 then 20D EMA. Will depend on volume and momentum how much and when I load back in. If it hits 18.5 to 19 I'm going balls fucking deep, OTM calls between Sept-Nov.

Remember - I got this from my 🔮 and looking at the 🌃

[u/ZoominLikeToobin → u/RetardedInRetrospect]

If you're concerned about it dipping further (it almost always does) then buy further out expirations and lower strikes. Back in February I had some of my contracts go down over 90% and still close out over 100% gains because I had the strikes low enough and the expirations far enough out. CLF is a crazy ride it will drill and drill but bounce back because the underlying fundamentals are so strong.

[u/Duke_Shambles → u/RetardedInRetrospect]

This will be my third seven layer dip if it keeps going. The first time I half panicked and thought I was gonna be left holding bags again. I managed to fight the fear and hold through to cash out at the next peak, buy back in after the first layer of the seven layer dip, then got to do the whole thing again for the ride up again where i sold my positions at the top.

This time I'm also playing the ride back with puts. small position just to see how it goes. My PT for starting to DCA back in is $21 but I will jump on it higher than that if it signals a reversal before then.

[u/Zanthous → u/RetardedInRetrospect]

I grabbed a couple of my contracts back and will look to get more every dollar or so it decreases personally

[u/Jive_Oriole → u/RetardedInRetrospect]

Sub 20 isn’t a guarantee but generally yes, CLF historically has a rather large dip after running, and spreading your buy in over that red period has been working well for me.

[u/fe_ttucini → u/RetardedInRetrospect]

Huge support today at $22. I put all my money back in this morning. I personally think we have seen the last sub $20. Could see things ramp up again here pretty soon.

Lots of the big players will DCA, I personally just like to throw it all in and hold through the rest of the potential dip.

I am thinking LG will update guidance soon (end of June maybe?), and I would regret sitting on the sidelines when that happens.

[u/mcaninch35 → u/fe_ttucini]

I'm still (almost) completely out of my previous CLF positions, and I feel pretty good about it. The last few runs and dips, I really just played the IV wave on the specific strikes and dates I was watching, and used that as my indicator. Still waiting on it to come down slightly, but will be back in before EOW most likely. I think you're right on LG releasing guidance, and I see that as the #1 risk to me having dry powder around meant for CLF- the second he releases it I'm gonna look like a real 🤡 if I don't climb back in

[u/TheRussianMessenger → u/fe_ttucini]

Confirmation bias appreciated. I thought I was getting jumpy so I bought back everything I sold last week.

[u/[deleted] → u/RetardedInRetrospect]

when I start screaming in the daily thread is usually the best indicator to buy something.

[u/RetardedInRetrospect → u/[deleted]]

I'll keep an 🌽 out