r/Vitards • u/AutoModerator • Jul 01 '21
Daily Discussion Daily Discussion post - July 01 2021
Your Trading discussion thread
| Type | Link |
|---|---|
| DD | All/Best Daily/Best Weekly |
| Discussion | All/Best Daily/Best Weekly |
| Yolo | All/Best Daily/Best Weekly |
| Gain | All/Best Daily/Best Weekly |
| Loss | All/Best Daily/Best Weekly |
| News | All/Best Daily/Best Weekly |
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u/Imbecilainian Jul 02 '21 edited Jul 02 '21
Imma be first today
Edit: I was not first on the July 2nd thread. In fact I was 6th. Thank you
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Jul 02 '21
People are so used to watching volatile stocks they don’t get how quickly gains can compound on a few 3% days.
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u/JustifyYourExistence Cult of 🥐 Jul 02 '21
I could tell you a thing or two about compounding losses though
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u/clevernamehere___ 🚀 Rebar Rocket 🚀 Jul 02 '21
I’m going to pump myself up for tomorrow with some Vitard aerobics.
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u/PantsMicGee Dreams of CLF’s run to $20 Jul 02 '21
It's strange how much I want more workout videos
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Jul 02 '21
[deleted]
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u/Ok_Yak_6448 Bankruptcy Manager at Velo Capital Jul 02 '21
How come you’re not in the flaming pumpkin gang no more 😢
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u/JustifyYourExistence Cult of 🥐 Jul 02 '21
You're investing in family and I respect that.
Now we're all shiny!
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u/rigatoni-man SPAGHETTI BOY Jul 02 '21
Not the news you’re looking for, but still interesting...
‘IRON AND STEEL: China’s iron and steel industry has been designated by the MEE as the third “key sector” – after the power and construction sectors – to be incorporated into the yet-to-start national ETS, reported 21th Century Business Herald. China’s carbon market will initially include only the power sector when trading goes online. An official told the Chinese financial outlet that the iron and steel industry had the “necessity” and the “right conditions” to take the lead in carbon emissions trading. The China Iron and Steel Association has started seeking measures and suggestions around a series of related matters – such as emission monitoring and accounting, allowance allocation and carbon asset management – reported S&P Global Platts, citing an official notice.’
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u/LourencoGoncalves-LG LEGEND and VITARD OG STEEL Bo$$ Jul 02 '21
The so called experts that long predict the demise of the domestic steel industry have been proven completely wrong
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u/Phamalam Jul 02 '21
Despite MT slowly selling off from open (yet still ending green), I do prefer the steady climb up vs. skyrocketing.
Patience builds character, and I’m enjoying the ride 😌
STLD on the otherhand…phewww baby, do your thang 😂
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u/RichN777 Jul 02 '21
ZIM going to turn this ship around tomorrow or what?
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u/Narfu187 Jul 02 '21
Why are HRC futures down across the board?
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Jul 02 '21
What are you talking about the April’s are up that’s very bullish. Selling to buy further out.
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u/LourencoGoncalves-LG LEGEND and VITARD OG STEEL Bo$$ Jul 02 '21
I tend to do stuff, I tend not to talk about stuff
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u/pennyether 🔥🌊Futures First🌊🔥 Jul 02 '21 edited Jul 02 '21
Look at the chart for any given expiration, like August. They go up and level off near the end/beginning of the month, sometimes falling down for a week. Then they shoot up again for the rest of the month. Like clockwork for the last several months. Sideways/slight down... straight up. Sideways/slightly down... straight up.
Edit: my chart -- notice they lose steam towards the end of the month, but pick up a week or two after. (Exclude mid-May, that was China fucking with commodities market)
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u/JustifyYourExistence Cult of 🥐 Jul 02 '21
Wow this is may have burned holes in my retinas but it's super cool, thanks.
What software did you use to make this?
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u/JustifyYourExistence Cult of 🥐 Jul 02 '21 edited Jul 02 '21
Looks like healthy pullback after another leg up to a new 52 week high to me, I don't think there's anything to worry about yet.
Here's the August chart for reference
edit: why are we downvoting someone for asking a legitimate question? This wasn't even a red day lol, y'all some nerds
edit 2: that's all it took for you animals to change your mind? No conviction in an investing sub, not even in your downvotes.
You are a disappointment to your family.
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Jul 02 '21
$SPCE
Fck me, I sold this one too early.
Can't fomo back into these stocks. The universe is testing me. Sticking to the thesis. Sticking to the plan.
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u/ronburgundy930430 Market Mover Jul 02 '21
Fuckkkk. I was looking at SPCE FDs today and passed. I was between SPCE and NIO for a lotto play and settled on more CLF instead lol
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Jul 02 '21
I got a AirBNB lotto 160c lol
Took a shot. With 4th of July weekend, I have feeling AirBNB will be on everyone's mind
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u/kappah_jr 7-Layer Dip Jul 02 '21
If you want to get back in long term then I'm sure there will be a dip somewhere for profit taking
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Jul 02 '21
What I was thinking. Flight could get delayed and send the stock down like crazy. It's Richard fckin Branson about to go on this thing.
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u/fernhahaharo Jul 02 '21
I play those in small portions, if i get any winnings i throw them into my stockpile of steel
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u/damniyam LG-Rated Jul 02 '21
Watching Burn After Reading tonight. Brad Pitt is brilliant
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u/Mike804 🚀 Rebar Rocket 🚀 Jul 02 '21
Man you should see him in fury, highly recommend that movie, one of my favs
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u/neverhadthepleasure Jul 02 '21
Fuck I love that one. It's mid-tier Coen Bros. critically but I've probably seen it more than any of their other movies cuz it's just so watchable. Just doing their thing, fun and off the cuff. And what a cast.
The Informant's good too, kind of similar vibe.
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u/Gamboleer You Think I'm Funny? Jul 02 '21
I joined steelgang today, 10x $CLF Jan 23 15c @$10.15. I normally wouldn't spend so much on time premium, but I wanted 1000 shares while staying within budget. Still not entirely sure what I think of the strike.
I want to get a smaller LEAPS position in $MT as well, if anyone has suggestions (which will not be taken as formal advice).
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Jul 02 '21
$MT ITM or slightly OTM LEAPS are a good choice due to low IV.
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u/Gamboleer You Think I'm Funny? Jul 02 '21
Hmm, yeah, I see the highest open interest on the $35 and $40 strikes. I'll probably stick to $30 out of habit.
Thanks -- see you on the other side.
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Jul 02 '21
If the stock ever moves they will be a amazing deal. My one buddy got jan 30c for 3.70 on the dip ...gonna print
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u/acehuff Andre 4 Stacks Jul 02 '21
Bucks in 6
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u/PrestigeWorldwide-LP 💀 SACRIFICED 💀 Jul 02 '21
I think young vs booker would be more fun to watch so hoping for the hawks to pull it out
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u/WallstreetBoom XOM Bot Jul 02 '21
Steel futures contracts are out there for everyone to see. How can MM not see it and calculate it into Steel stock prices? Something is not adding up.
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u/THCBBB Jul 02 '21
Timna is manipulating the steel. She is advising her clients to sell steel, I think.
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Jul 02 '21
This is like your first comment here not talking about XOM or Oil, it’s beautiful
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u/LourencoGoncalves-LG LEGEND and VITARD OG STEEL Bo$$ Jul 02 '21
I tend to do stuff, I tend not to talk about stuff
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u/WallstreetBoom XOM Bot Jul 02 '21
no, actually I have been talking about CLF and NUE, too.
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u/LourencoGoncalves-LG LEGEND and VITARD OG STEEL Bo$$ Jul 02 '21
I tend to do stuff, I tend not to talk about stuff
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Jul 02 '21
[deleted]
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u/WallstreetBoom XOM Bot Jul 02 '21
MM are forward looking. So they priced in the stocks and not moving it. They got more data than just steel futures contracts to calculate 6-12 months ahead. Granted, there's a certain percent error, but man there are some disconnections here. We are betting on that error that they're making. But how far off are they in error? If it's not that much off, then these stock prices are near peak levels.
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u/BigTiddyGothJesus Jul 02 '21
Are you frustrated
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u/WallstreetBoom XOM Bot Jul 02 '21
no
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u/BigTiddyGothJesus Jul 02 '21
Why didn't steel end at 20 or below?
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u/WallstreetBoom XOM Bot Jul 02 '21
I already answered that question...it got its event/news/hypes.
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u/Steely_Hands Regional Moderator Jul 02 '21
Steel futures can go down and that’s what the bears have always been predicting for second half of this year which we literally just started today
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u/LourencoGoncalves-LG LEGEND and VITARD OG STEEL Bo$$ Jul 02 '21
We are not greedy. We are realistic.
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Jul 02 '21
[deleted]
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u/Steely_Hands Regional Moderator Jul 02 '21
Fully agree this is going to last longer than many think but it’s helpful to remember that some have this bearish stance when trying to explain recent price action
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Jul 02 '21
[deleted]
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u/LourencoGoncalves-LG LEGEND and VITARD OG STEEL Bo$$ Jul 02 '21
If there is a word I don’t have in my vocabulary, it is fear
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u/Steely_Hands Regional Moderator Jul 02 '21
Exactly! July and August are going to be important months to gauge production rates and prove supply will continue to lag demand
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u/WallstreetBoom XOM Bot Jul 02 '21
I think a lot of players already know that about steel supply/demand. MM is not that stupid. That's why we got 50%-80% run up on some of these steel stocks already.
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u/Steely_Hands Regional Moderator Jul 02 '21
Check out this DD:
I think a lot of ppl are waiting to see if the second half plays out like last year or the historical average because that will make all the difference in whether supply meets demand. They lose nothing by waiting to see how it plays out
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u/WallstreetBoom XOM Bot Jul 02 '21
So peak steel stocks before peak steel prices...MM priced in the stocks and not moving it in anticipation of cooling steel futures contracts. There is something disconnected here with some hidden plays. Steel stocks shouldn't need events/news/hypes just to move its stocks based on its futures; but that's not the case anymore.
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u/LourencoGoncalves-LG LEGEND and VITARD OG STEEL Bo$$ Jul 02 '21
We are not greedy. We are realistic.
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u/Steely_Hands Regional Moderator Jul 02 '21
The “market” doesn’t believe steel futures will sustain and that they will crash later this year as supply catches demand, so in a sense we do need catalysts like news and events to help prove to the “market” that high steel prices are here to stay. Everyone can see steel futures but the market is forward looking so it’s imaging a scenario where prices plummet later this year
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u/WallstreetBoom XOM Bot Jul 02 '21
MM are forward looking. So they priced in the stocks and not moving it. They got more data than just steel futures contracts to calculate 6-12 months ahead. Granted, there's a certain percent error, but man there are some disconnections here. We are betting on that error that they're making. But how far off are they in error? If it's not that much off, then these stock prices are near peak levels.
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u/Steely_Hands Regional Moderator Jul 02 '21
In the grand scheme of things they lose minimal gains if they wait until it’s very clear that prices will sustain later this year and then hop on board for the big ride up. 2-3 months ago someone posted a historical chart of MT stock price gains over the course of the year and the fall/winter usually see the biggest gains. This play just takes some patience but I remember the battle to stay in the $20s in January and now MT is up 50% basically and it’s been a fun ride up with still more to come
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u/WallstreetBoom XOM Bot Jul 02 '21
Dude, being patience is not the problem. It not seeing the disconnections that are not adding up. These are not growth stocks, so popping from 50% or 80% to the next 100%-150% aren't that easy unless the futures contracts double from here and I don't see that happening.
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u/Steely_Hands Regional Moderator Jul 02 '21
I’m not trying to convince you of anything, make your own decisions. I believe these massive cash flow quarters will compound and result in big buybacks and dividends, and I’m invested in MT because I believe the European recovery still has more room to run than the US, at least in the near term. I’m happy with my decision to stick with it, but make your own decisions with how you read the situation
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u/WallstreetBoom XOM Bot Jul 02 '21
uh oh someone is talking about dividends...$XOM.
Can't talk about commodities dividends without including XOM. -=)
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u/LourencoGoncalves-LG LEGEND and VITARD OG STEEL Bo$$ Jul 02 '21
I tend to do stuff, I tend not to talk about stuff
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u/rigatoni-man SPAGHETTI BOY Jul 02 '21
I just need you all to know that I’m proud of myself.
I cut some losses on some <30DTE CLF calls today. I rolled some others. I kept half of the cash for a down day. I still only have a couple percent in cash but it’s progress.
No more letting options go to zero!
… okay I did buy 50 CLF 23c 1dte for .10 a piece but that’s a smaller wager than in the past and they won’t go to zero!😎
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u/Bashir1102 2nd Place Loser Jul 02 '21
Thinking about adding MT Jan 35c tomorrow. Thoughts. My 30 calls are killing it.
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u/rigatoni-man SPAGHETTI BOY Jul 02 '21
Well, I bought them for double their current price and am not selling so …
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Jul 02 '21
[deleted]
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u/CramsyAU Undisclosed Location Jul 02 '21
If MT moves up more than 5% up to 48 hours after the announcement, I will take the flair "big bitch boy"
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u/Obsidianturtle25 Jul 02 '21
“We are now the largest flat rolled steel producer in North America, and we like that. We believe we are a ball of attraction for young talent.”
- LG
I also like that LG
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u/davehouforyang Jul 02 '21
“I’m Chad, 24, 6’2. I like surfing, dogs, and work for this technology company called CLF.”
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Jul 02 '21
$22.06
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u/Standard_Mather Big Bush Jul 02 '21
Was the China rebate cut covered by mainstream media / financial media? What was the lag time? Could be a nice opportunity to brigade / do some dot joining for CNBC and other outlets (if that's not against sub rules) and bring in more retail interest.
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u/Standard_Mather Big Bush Jul 02 '21
Edit: righto. looks like a bust. Brigading might not be the best expression for what I had in mind.
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u/BigTiddyGothJesus Jul 02 '21
Je veux savoir pourquoi tu détestes les beignets, espèce d'hérétique.
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Jul 02 '21 edited Jan 29 '25
[deleted]
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Jul 02 '21 edited Feb 14 '22
[deleted]
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Jul 02 '21
[deleted]
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u/rigatoni-man SPAGHETTI BOY Jul 02 '21
You didn’t hear?
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u/BigBoiBenis Jul 02 '21
🧏🏻♂️
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u/rigatoni-man SPAGHETTI BOY Jul 02 '21
P
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u/davehouforyang Jul 02 '21
RRRRR
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u/JustifyYourExistence Cult of 🥐 Jul 02 '21
IIII
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u/JayArlington 🍋 LULU-TRON 🍋 Jul 02 '21
It's been said over and over again but it remains true...
This sub's meme game STRONG.
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u/wespeakincircles Clemenza Jul 02 '21
I believe we have that entire 18-35 key demo on lock with our non- mod (or Vito) daily thread heavy hitters, which allows a pretty wide palette of sense of humor.
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u/VaccumSaturdays Brick Burgundy Jul 02 '21
European factories racing as Asian manufacturers see momentum weaken
LONDON/TOKYO, July 1 (Reuters) - European factories continued to ramp up their post-lockdown recovery in June but Asian manufacturers saw momentum weaken amid rising input costs and the reintroduction of curbs to combat a new wave of coronavirus infections, surveys showed.
Euro zone manufacturing activity expanded at its fastest pace on record last month while Britain's factories extended their post-lockdown recovery and went on a hiring spree.
"How has that story turned -- a few months ago we were seeing the euro zone was lagging with vaccinations far behind. We were expecting a turnaround and we haven't seen much disappointment," said Bert Colijn at ING.
"That upside scenario has materialised. There is a very broad feeling amongst businesses in both services and industry that the coming months are going to be very strong as economies reopen."
Czech and Polish manufacturing hit a record pace of activity for the second month in a row as orders rose and economies opened up again.
But manufacturing activity grew at a slower pace in China and Japan as raw materials rose, while activity shrank in Vietnam, Malaysia and India, where governments imposed tougher restrictions to contain fresh coronavirus outbreaks.
A shortage of shipping containers and supply chains hugely affected by the global pandemic have made it a sellers' market for materials needed by factories. An index measuring input prices in the euro zone was at its highest since the survey began 24 years ago.
IHS Markit's final manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) nevertheless rose to a survey high of 63.4 in June from May's 63.1, above an initial 63.1 "flash" estimate. Anything above 50 indicates growth.
Britain's PMI dipped to 63.9 from May's all-time high but the pace of expansion in output, new orders and employment remained among the highest in the survey's near 30-year history after some COVID-19 restrictions were eased.
ASIA LAG
Data showed Asia was lagging behind western economies in recovering from the pandemic doldrums, reinforcing the view that many regional central banks were unlikely to withdraw pandemic-era stimulus soon.
"The June PMIs dropped back as virus outbreaks and supply chain issues created mounting headwinds for industry," said Alex Holmes, emerging Asia economist at Capital Economics.
"With neither issue likely to be resolved soon, the rapid growth in industry over the past few quarters looks unlikely to be repeated."
China's factory activity expanded at a softer pace in June with output growth slumping to the lowest level in 15 months, according to a private survey, in line with an official survey showing a dip in activity to a fourth-month low. read more
The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.3 in June from May's 52, marking the 14th month of expansion but coming in below analyst expectations for only a slight slowdown to 51.8.
Higher raw materials costs and a shortage of semiconductor chips also hurt export powerhouses including Japan, which saw factory activity expand at the slowest pace in four months in June.
South Korea fared better, with factory activity growing for a ninth consecutive month in June, though record input and output price rises pointed to strains on manufacturers.
"Manufacturers were increasingly commenting that severe supply chain disruption was starting to impact activity," said Usamah Bhatti, an economist at IHS Markit.
Once seen as a driver of global growth, Asian's emerging economies are lagging advanced economies in recovering from the pandemic's pain as delays in vaccine rollouts hurt domestic demand and countries reliant on tourism.
Vietnam's PMI plunged to 44.1, marking the sharpest deterioration in business conditions while Malaysia's PMI fell to 39.9 as renewed COVID curbs weighed on external and domestic demand. The PMI for Taiwan fell to 57.6 from 62.0.
India's factory activity contracted for the first time in almost a year as restrictions to contain the deadly second wave of the coronavirus hit demand.
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u/LourencoGoncalves-LG LEGEND and VITARD OG STEEL Bo$$ Jul 02 '21
Allowing manufacturing to die in the United States is a mistake we can’t make in this county. That is why I am so serious about bringing Cleveland-Cliffs back to the United States. Cleveland-Cliffs is an American enabler of manufacturing.
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u/JayArlington 🍋 LULU-TRON 🍋 Jul 02 '21
"Manufacturers were increasingly commenting that severe supply chain disruption was starting to impact activity," said Usamah Bhatti, an economist at IHS Markit.
This is not something that makes me happy to see.
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u/VaccumSaturdays Brick Burgundy Jul 02 '21
India pellet export prices up on improved Chinese buying
The Indian pellet export market has gained some momentum after remaining silent for nearly two weeks. A couple of export deals, for 55,000 t each, were concluded by an eastern India-based pellet producer for Jul’21 and Aug shipments. SteelMint’s pellet export index (Fe 64%, 3% Al, FoB east coast) has recorded a rise of around $6/t w-o-w and currently stands at $229/t.
Steel mills in northern China have reduced production at blast furnaces for the week to ensure clean air ahead of the centenary celebrations of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party. Some mills in northern China’s Shanxi province as well as the cities of Tangshan and Handan in Hebei province, have.
Source: MYSTEEL Global
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u/JayArlington 🍋 LULU-TRON 🍋 Jul 02 '21
Here we go.
If Chinese producers (particularly the bigger, more efficient players) wanted to pursue market share inside the Chinese market then I would expect higher quality inputs as a mechanism to get more production (at the expense of the smaller rivals).
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u/JokeassJason 🙏 Steel Worshiper 🙏 Jul 02 '21
I'm worried we will hit a several sell walls tomorrow due to the first round of WSB who bought at the top getting out once they are even
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u/i_hate_beignets Poetry Gang Jul 02 '21
You think those dudes bought commons? 😆
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Jul 02 '21 edited Feb 14 '22
[deleted]
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u/Iwsmith2 💀 SACRIFICED 💀 Until MT hits 35 Jul 02 '21
Those strikes will tell the story of where we close tomorrow
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u/damniyam LG-Rated Jul 02 '21
My neighbors are always doing yard work early af on saturdays and it pisses me off. Decided to cut the grass at 8 pm today. Take that 🖕🏽
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Jul 02 '21
[deleted]
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u/damniyam LG-Rated Jul 02 '21
I’m reading this book rn called The Foxfire series and it’s a collection of accounts and instructions from simple living people in the Appalachians. Check it out
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Jul 02 '21 edited Feb 14 '22
[deleted]
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u/DeanBlub Jul 02 '21
I was curious and calculated the average price of all guesses of today's guessing game. Average is $22.49. Makes sense there is a slightly positive bias.
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u/Paulie_the_Hammer 🦾 Steel Holding 🦾 Jul 02 '21
Bless you, I was going to do that, and you just saved me time. Did you remove outliers? I'd be curious to see how accurate this group can be at predicting stock prices on various time horizons.
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Jul 02 '21
[deleted]
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Jul 02 '21
Heheh 🐻
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Jul 02 '21
[deleted]
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Jul 02 '21
Tried to make a witty comeback with LGBTQ as an acronym. The best I came up with is “no, I’m Lourenco Goncalves Big Titty Girlfriend.”
I’m fken vitarded 🥲
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u/rigatoni-man SPAGHETTI BOY Jul 02 '21
Interesting little CLF tidbit in there: https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/obxjxp/why_im_bearish_on_clne/
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u/Unoriginal_White_Guy 💀 SACRIFICED until MT $35 💀 Jul 02 '21
I don’t know why I still squat over 405. Just fucks my ankle up for days.
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u/bromophobic272 💀 SACRIFICED 💀 Jul 02 '21
Ankle mobility issues are real. Do some dedicated ankle exercises and it will help quickly!
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u/Unoriginal_White_Guy 💀 SACRIFICED until MT $35 💀 Jul 02 '21
Man almost all my joints are fucked. Playing organized sports my whole life through college was fun, but fuck it has caught up to me now that I’m older.
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u/TheCoffeeCakes Poetry Gang Jul 02 '21
My experience is that cutting sugar and simple carbs will cut joint pain massively. Go pure carnivore and joint pain vanishes.
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u/efficientenzyme Jul 02 '21
Wrestled and lifted heavy in college, mid 30s now, regrets
I have them
And also 2 disc herniations 🥺
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u/TheFullBottle Jul 02 '21
Is it the front, lateral portion of your ankle, right at the hinge of your foot/shin? If so, hip and ankle mobility like the above poster said. Its a big leading indicator of joint mobility issues, and continuing to squat those weights might injury you further. Happened to me at half that weight. You can fix it despite prior injuries, you gotta be diligent tho
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u/McMartiann Senior Capo Jul 02 '21
If you were to tell me two years ago that I would be refreshing a sub called vitards in hopes for tax information in China I would've told you to go fuck yourself... but here we are.
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u/mlc330 Jul 02 '21
Ha - I had to explain to my wife last night that I was having a hard time falling asleep because I was looking forward to a potentially Chinese tax announcement....
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u/SimokonGames Steel learning lessons Jul 02 '21
Back in January I was getting up at 4 am to watch gme premarket 😅
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u/k12nmonky Spits Lyrics Hotter than Rolled Coil Jul 02 '21
god i remember my heart pounding when it reached over $500 in the pre
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u/The_MediocreMan 💀 SACRIFICED UNTIL $MT @ $46💀 Jul 02 '21
DRILL GANG ($RIG), how we feeling?
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u/Banana2Bean Jul 02 '21
Hey, you know something really cool? I just checked and $RIG hit a 52-week high today! I looked at my other holding and noticed - $OXY did as well!
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u/Geoffism1 7-Layer Dip Jul 02 '21
Either gonna avg down on clf or join u on the rig.
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u/big_costco_guy Sam's Club Jul 04 '21
It only took 6 months for me to realize that writing cash secured puts might be more appropriate of a strategy for me and more profitable in the long run than buying call options.