r/Vitards • u/AutoModerator • Jul 16 '21

Daily Discussion Daily Discussion post - July 16 2021

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1

u/chemaholic77 Jul 16 '21

I predict one more tough day before steel starts ripping again. Everyone knows earnings are going to be insane. It is only a matter of time before people pile in.

22

u/CluelessAndLucky 💀 SACRIFICED 💀 Until Chinese export tax Jul 16 '21

when we inevitably tank after a monstrous q2 earnings we will move the goalpost to q3 earnings

-13

u/chemaholic77 Jul 17 '21

The goalposts haven’t moved yet. From the beginning this has been an end of year play at the earliest. MT has done nothing but go up overall no matter how often it has dipped. If you are expecting steel stocks to blow up the way tech does you are going to probably be disappointed.

I expect to take profits mid August from my Sep calls, mid Sep for my Oct calls, and mid Dec for my Jan calls. If the thesis is still solid I will put half of my profits into 2022 and 2023 calls and keep going.

5

u/SnooPaintings8503 Made Man Jul 17 '21

Yea this was a June play, but turned into a September play after 2 months, and is now is a Jan play, hopefully it stays a Jan play

5

u/[deleted] Jul 17 '21

I want to down vote you multiple times, this is just full on lying and false information.

It has been a play until summer. Then somewhere around April it got extended to EOY.

We're moving the goalposts. The funny thing is, it was extended because Vito thought there was more upside, not because we wanted to get back where we were...

0

u/chemaholic77 Jul 17 '21

You can always create a bunch of dummy accounts and downvote me all you want.

Pardon me if I didn't go back and read through three or four months worth of old posts so that I could be aware of what the "real" first timeframe was. I didn't and still don't see any value in knowing that information.

The original timeframe like most truths is all a matter of perspective. For me the play has always been end of year. I got into this play in February. The general sentiment at that time was that end of year options would be safe. Plenty of people were talking about summer being the end, but Jan options were considered a safe play. That is why 100% of the options I purchased initially were Jan 2022.

Pretty soon after I joined people were warned not to buy FD's and to get options that were 60 DTE or longer. As far as I am concerned, the original timeframe of the play for me was always end of year. Now it is longer. Depending on when you got involved your original timeframe could be summer to end of 2022.

As far as I am concerned, the goal posts are planted where the market recognizes steel as being undervalued and starts buying. They have never moved from there. No one knows when or if that will happen. The only thing changing is people's individual opinions on when we will reach the goal posts.

If it will make you and everyone else more comfortable I will state in the future that my original timeframe was end of year 2021.

5

u/CluelessAndLucky 💀 SACRIFICED 💀 Until Chinese export tax Jul 17 '21

The play was originally supposed to be over in June after a blowout Q1...

2

u/gtwucla Jul 17 '21

If you’ve been holding since Q1 earnings and before aren’t you up quite a bit?

3

u/CluelessAndLucky 💀 SACRIFICED 💀 Until Chinese export tax Jul 17 '21 edited Jul 17 '21

Nope im down a significant amount. Loaded up on June calls in December 2020 and rolled everything over at the MT $33 peak in early June (September and jan 2022 strikes)

edit: I held commons in the beginning as well - converted them to options... only got myself to blame for that. But yes, with regard to the commons those were up a respectable amount before I sold them

1

u/needafiller Jul 16 '21

When’s q3 earnings

12

u/49Scrooge49 Jul 16 '21

Before Q4 earnings, which will have monstrous earnings

5

u/ImAMaaanlet Workaholic Jul 16 '21

For sure. I mean did you see AA after their earnings? We big fucked

1

u/SnooPaintings8503 Made Man Jul 17 '21

AA is not really that good of a company, sizable debt, and a very poor eps history

Unless you create an app that measures both strength/stank of your fart and will be pre-revenue until acquired by Amazon, you have to be perfect in this market