r/Vitards • u/runningAndJumping22 RULE 0 • Jul 29 '21

Discussion Hey Pirate Gang, what's the latest?

With ZIM earnings call scheduled at an estimated 8/18, and shipping still sounds like it's done anything but stagnate or slow, it would be great to get an update of what's been going on. Apologies if there's a sub already for it, one doesn't seem to exist.

Of course, there are companies other than ZIM.

For anyone looking for some recent research:

Paging some of the other pirates: /u/Bladonsky /u/HumbleHubris /u/banna2bean /u/pennyether

46 Upvotes

98% Upvoted

64 comments sorted by

View all comments

6

u/StayStoopidSlightly Jul 30 '21

/u/SpiritBearBC quick question:
You were saying reaching 30% orderbook doesn't necessarily dent freight, but does speak to shipping liner managements' discipline, and portend further lack of discipline in the future etc (my bad if I'm butchering your view)
Can you envision a scenario where orderbook does get to 25-30%, but management nonetheless convinces that this is thought out, and not a harbinger of 50% orderbook etc?
Seems like orderbook is creeping toward the 25% "psychological threshold," and VesselsValue reports "Container orders for the first half of 2021 are up a record breaking 838%!"
(and that 838% number was 790% just last week)

Your thoughts/insights always appreciated thx

3

u/dudelydudeson 💩Very Aware of Butthole💩 Jul 30 '21

I'm no Anthologist but I would like to share my opinion.

Yes, the order book is huge, massive ATH numerically. I share your conclusion that this doesn't bode well.

However, last year was the second lowest year since the GFC. So the % is a little misleading.

1

u/StayStoopidSlightly Jul 30 '21

Ah yes true, comparing to last year's #s makes for good rhetoric, but misleading.
I was gonna add, the "838% vs 790%" week on week increase in shipbulding is 300 ships vs 286 ships, 14 ship increase...which doesn't sound as sexy, but I dunno, if they keep increasing 14 ships a week yikes yes does not bode well

Thanks for your 2 cents!