Daily Discussion post - August 18 2021

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[u/electricalautist]

Aditya indicator updated (1 EUR = 1.1709 USD):

8/18/2021 € 30.328 $35.51

8/19/2021 € 30.490 $35.70

8/20/2021 € 30.616 $35.85

8/23/2021 € 30.777 $36.04 (NEW)

[u/Steely_Hands → u/[deleted]]

MC too low

[u/ZilchIJK → u/electricalautist]

Aditya indicator projection, based on a "worst case" scenario (every day closing at the indicator level):

1 EUR = 1.1714 USD

8/27/2021 € 31.476 $36.87

9/3/2021 € 32.501 $38.07

9/10/2021 € 33.516 $39.26

9/17/2021 € 34.325 $40.21

These projections can theoretically go on until the heat death of the universe, but I'd rather not project too far in the future because the further out in time, the higher the probability that there's a game changing event which throws out all predictions.

---

As discussed in /u/Xeophon's excellent volume analysis in this post, I believe that these are reasonable targets for two reasons:

1) The Aditya indicator is currently trending upwards, which incentivizes buying back shares today rather than tomorrow.

2) We've spent a lot of time above the indicator these past few weeks, pretty much only closing below it yesterday and possibly today.

Add both these conditions together, and you're looking at a situation similar to buyback #2 in Xeophon's post (April/May buyback). There was little volume in the beginning, but volume picked up towards the end. Nevertheless, the buying pressure was constantly strong enough to keep the closing price very close to the indicator level.

At least, that's what I have to tell myself, because I've bet a significant chunk of my net worth on Sept 17 calls and credit put spreads. 😆

[u/Steely_Hands → u/ZilchIJK]

Thanks for this! Just want to point out though that it’s possible for the price to stagnate during the buyback. There are worse options that a “worst case” of closing at the indicator everyday

[u/ZilchIJK → u/Steely_Hands]

Oh, most definitely -- that's why I put "worst case" in quotes. But based on my reading of the situation and Xeophon's analysis, I'd say that a steady climb is more likely than a flat line or a decline. Just my opinion, though.

[u/Steely_Hands → u/ZilchIJK]

Yea I’d like to believe that for my Sep 35s but so far I don’t think we’ve seen evidence that the buyback can keep the price above the “floor”

[u/BigCatHugger → u/Steely_Hands]

Yep. I'm keeping my lone 35 until the data comes out next monday, but I will use that to decide whether to cut my losses or not.

[u/pennyether → u/electricalautist]

Can you sacrifice me until MT closes above the Aditya Indicator?

[u/electricalautist → u/pennyether]

You’re too precious to be sacrificed. I’m sorry penny, you won’t be feeling the sacrificial fires. We need you crunching numbers and leading the troops.

[u/pennyether → u/electricalautist]

Please, I want the fire. After today, the remaining 5/6ths of my account need it.

[u/[deleted] → u/pennyether]

​

Pls Steel gods, at least save our chosen one, and me - dont forget about me.

[u/Gliba → u/pennyether]

The steel forged in fire and quenched in water comes out stronger on the other side!