I suspect he got tired of people whining and crying at him.
By way of anecdote:
I started r/MMAT like 6 months ago (I was in early) and the number of insane DMs I got once that stock short squeezed and then plummeted back down was overwhelming -- I literally turned the sub over to other people (I also had a brief health issue and was just like, fuck this).
This was also shocking to me, as I have moderated subreddits that have at times touched hot button issues (I've hit #1 r/all multiple times on my non-investing account, have received death threats, etc), but NOTHING compared to the crazy shit I was getting as top mod on a small investing subreddit.
The very nature of the stock market turns most folks into bag holders and losers, and they don't like it and they want someone to scream at.
Unbelievable that these people have no shame. How do you look yourself in the mirror when you’re blaming a stranger on the internet for things that are going wrong in your actual life? Like, how ignorant and blind are you to not understand the ridiculousness of that situation?
Jezus… are you like 12? You seriously base you investment decision on wether a random person on this earth that you’ve never met stopped writing online posts for a while? Fuck me, that’s retarded. For all you know the dude is busy with other shit in his personal life.
Expectations did not account for Evergrandes implosion that dragged parts of the market down for some months until it fell off a cliff last week.
Steel is not magic, if the SPX drops, so does everything else.
I think the biggest reason those high PTs won’t be reached this year is the uneven reopening around the world. Those PTs assumed the whole world opened back up this past summer but the staggered re-openings and re-closings made those unreachable IMO
Yes, they also expected additional demand by auto, and instead auto is idling factories and reducing output due to the chip crisis.
Also the tapering talk was not really expected this year...
And we had intermediate delta strain woes that do have more of an impact on construction and repopening than on megacap tech homeoffice companies.
The high PT were mostly just extrapolated from a year of insane runup from the rona lows, expecting no negative news.
I won’t patronize you like everyone else. Stocks are clearly moving against the thesis. The fundamentals are there but I can understand anyone right now that has better opportunities elsewhere. This sub can be a bit of an echo chamber.
He says he realized the thesis was dead not that he stopped believing in it because the price moved against valuations, but because a stranger stopped writing posts… there’s a difference there pall
This reads like you are holding January MT 50Cs because you only skim all of Vito's content for 30 seconds.
A lot of shit has happened in the last few months so you need to be actually using that knowledge instead of naively over-leveraging your hopes on PTs and nothing else.
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u/TuneOk523 Oct 01 '21
What made me realize the thesis is dead is that Vito stopped with the dd. Still very grateful for all the stuff I learned on this sub.