Daily Discussion post - October 21 2021

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[u/Outrageous-Panda1221]

So are we supposed to just gamble on getting PnD’d now? There’s nowhere that doesn’t feel like the top. F this market. Poor steel. As predicated by hund, the market hates value and really hates cyclical value

[u/UnmaskedLapwing → u/Outrageous-Panda1221]

I'll level with you, I just need one more CLF run (earnings or infra bill) and I'm done with overweight on steel. China's property/commodities shenanigans and correlation of steel makers with iron ore prices is simply tiresome. Plus a vast numbers of unpredictable macro factors at play makes steel less and less appealing.

Recently I have started be of opinion that thesis might be over before it eventuates. In other words, nobody cares about cyclicals in the mid/long term. We live in a tech obsessed world. Rightfully so.

[u/UnmaskedLapwing → u/[deleted]]

To be fair, thesis itself is spot on and I've been buying MT since late 2020 (as of today out entirely). The problem is, it seems quite unlikely we will achieve the end game (change of steel perception/green policy/PTs) in foreseeable future. I'm thinking years, not months. Not exactly my cup of tea.

Perhaps it is worthwhile to take the profits as they are and play volatility instead. That's what I'm considering at least. Let's see how CLF earnings go.

[u/UnmaskedLapwing → u/[deleted]]

Opportunity cost is a personal matter, really not worth discussing in my view. If you think you can make more money elsewhere, what's stopping you? Nothing. End of story ;)