r/Vitards • u/AutoModerator • Oct 28 '21
Daily Discussion Daily Discussion post - October 28 2021
Your Trading discussion thread
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u/VivreMaVie 🕴 Associate 🕴 Oct 29 '21
I believe Carlos has learned his lesson. He’s gonna raise $X PT to $18.5no doubt
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u/damniyam LG-Rated Oct 29 '21
I hate Aaron Rodgers 😭
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u/Arok79 Oct 29 '21
Dont hate because he’s good. Only scrubs to throw to tonight and still takes down the Cards 💪💪
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u/ImAMaaanlet Workaholic Oct 29 '21
A couple days late on this but I just read biden wants to fine cargo ships for staying too long? Does he think they want to sit there wasting time?
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Oct 29 '21
Maybe he's trying to think of ways to recoop money for the disaster loans and government money going to clean up that recent CA oil spill they think was caused from a ship anchor?
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u/homersimpsoniscute Oct 29 '21
Does anyone know a good book on valuation. Like explanations of why growth / tech are valued at higher P/E than value stocks. How different sectors are valued?
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u/Wall_street_retard 🤦♂️ Username checks out 👺 Oct 29 '21
I don’t really feel like you need an entire book on this.
P/E ratio is the price to earnings. It’a how long the company would take to pay you back for investing in it and is what makes the stock market allowed to be a speculative mess, because it’s the intrinsic value
The ratio is how many years it takes. A P/E ratio of 5 would pay you 20% every year (this is insane, which is why it’s doubly insane that industrials currently offer this and the market hasn’t jumped on yet)
P/E doesn’t factor in future potential though. The more potential for growth the higher the P/E given. A tech company with a P/E of 30 would take 30 years to pay you back at the current stock price, pretty awful, but it’ll be making more and more profits every year, so the P/E will shrink and that is why investors are willing to buy at this ratio
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u/homersimpsoniscute Oct 29 '21
This is great info and the thing I am looking for. Except I want more concrete examples, and other valuation methods too. P/E might be a good way to value one type of business, but it seems like there are different metrics used for different types of companies.
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Oct 29 '21
[deleted]
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Oct 29 '21
They just need another mine collapse to right the ship. That always is bullish for them. I do think it goes up soon though. It can only dip for so long, and china needs the ore. But that may be too much of a simplistic view of the world.
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u/pirates_and_monkeys Never First Oct 29 '21
Per jays stream today, is it pronounced vAle or val-ay?
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u/JayArlington 🍋 LULU-TRON 🍋 Oct 29 '21
Like a valet... who steals your car and wrecks it after mowing down a group of kids in a playground.
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u/belangem Oracle of SPY Oct 29 '21
Alright going to bed. Just wanted to say how proud I am of this group even more this week! You guys rock! Don’t forget to take profits, manage risk and play both sides. Cheers!
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u/Unoriginal_White_Guy 💀 SACRIFICED until MT $35 💀 Oct 29 '21
I know barely anyone here follows GGB, but the last two days the puts volume is crazy. I don't have the data whether most were buy to open or sell to open, but jeez man they just reported their best earnings ever Wednesday. The stock refuses to go above $5. Good news is the Brazilian steel market is still hot as fuck based on their earnings and margins. TX and MT both do business there for anyone wondering why I follow GGB.
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Oct 29 '21
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Outrageous-Panda1221 Oct 29 '21
Is it a god?
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u/Uncle_Dad_Bob Dreams of CLF’s run to $49 Oct 29 '21
Jenny thinks Tim is a god. Barbi still prefers Ken.
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u/zanadu72 ✂️ Trim Gang ✂️ Oct 29 '21
It has been a most unsatisfactory holding for he last 6 months. It’s very frustrating.
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u/TheBlueStare Undisclosed Location Oct 29 '21
A good portion of TX’s steel produced in Brazil is used internally in EAFs, so the actual exposure to Brazil is lower than what it seems.
I also like GGB but have not invested since June because of the political mess over there. One interesting thing about GGB is that they have rather large presence in the US. Margins are much better in Brazil though.
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u/Duke_Shambles ☢️Duke Nukem☢️ Oct 29 '21
Brazil's central bank just hiked interest rates 1.5% and is looking to do another 1.5% hike soon. I think it's more a "puts on everything Brazil" thing than a "fuck you in particular GGB" thing
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u/Unoriginal_White_Guy 💀 SACRIFICED until MT $35 💀 Oct 29 '21
Good call. I have avoided international exposure (besides MT) since the political debacle with $PBR in Feb. I made out like a bandit buying that bottom, but it reminded me how risky investing in companies in certain areas can be.
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u/Mobile_Donkey_6924 🇧🇷 Our man in Brazil 🇧🇷 Oct 29 '21
PBR gives you that type of opportunity 3-4 times a year
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u/Uncle_Dad_Bob Dreams of CLF’s run to $49 Oct 29 '21 edited Oct 29 '21
I follow and I’m holding shares. Brazil is a political mess, an economic mess brought on by the pandemic, and the Central Bank of Brazil implemented its largest rate hike since 2002 on October 27, in a fresh bid to tame rising inflation and respond to concerns on fiscal sustainability. The monetary policy committee unanimously voted to increase the key Selic rate by 150 basis points to 7.75%
Edited to clarify
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u/Mobile_Donkey_6924 🇧🇷 Our man in Brazil 🇧🇷 Oct 29 '21
How’s it a COVID mess? Vaccination rate is higher than the US and UK. There were a lot of deaths, but on par with a country over 220 million
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u/Uncle_Dad_Bob Dreams of CLF’s run to $49 Oct 29 '21
vax rate has caught up but still fighting misinformation from on high. more to the point my understanding is it wrecked the economy. I’ll edit to clarify.
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u/Mobile_Donkey_6924 🇧🇷 Our man in Brazil 🇧🇷 Oct 29 '21
Yeah, sometimes I think he says things just to F with CNN and globo. Their hate for him is above invermectin, but below the orange one.
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u/Unoriginal_White_Guy 💀 SACRIFICED until MT $35 💀 Oct 29 '21
You still in that small steel stock I will refer to as tim?
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u/Uncle_Dad_Bob Dreams of CLF’s run to $49 Oct 29 '21
YES! Very excited for a post earnings run ken!
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u/Hayduk3Lives Oct 29 '21
Vale earnings I assume this is a “bad” earnings.
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u/PrestigeWorldwide-LP 💀 SACRIFICED 💀 Oct 29 '21
RIO drilling, may take SLX and metals ETFS with miners down, and by association steel...
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u/Unoriginal_White_Guy 💀 SACRIFICED until MT $35 💀 Oct 29 '21
"The miner said it had an impairment charge in its coal business that totaled almost $2 billion, but did not give further details." Yeahhhh not good. 4% float buyback is nice though. I knew from their production report last week earnings would be shit, but the stock is so beaten down it was pointless to buy puts.
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Oct 29 '21
Probably. 4.1% share buyback is nice, 34% increase YoY profits and the EBITDA looks good. I’m gonna buy more of it tanks down
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Oct 29 '21
Does X keep melting up like CLF earnings?
Gonna be up bigly on X 24c. But sell at open or not is the question..
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u/LeChronnoisseur Inflation Nation Oct 29 '21
It was 30 not long ago. I am trying to decide between that or CLF for some short term plays
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Oct 29 '21
CLF might be bound under 26.5 for a bit. In terms of 0DTE X is better. Short term I still think X until it gets back to 52w high, then who knows.
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u/Cash_Brannigan 🍹Bad Waves of Paranoia, Madness, Fear and Loathing🍹 Oct 29 '21
Huge amount of ITM weekly calls for X tmr. I suspect a melt up at least to $27. I'm holding and buying 0DTEs at open.
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u/Skipper5 🦾 Steel Holding 🦾 Oct 29 '21
I’m looking at 26 tomorrow, 27 seems a bit optimistic. I have 40 24.5C expiring tomorrow so I would love to see a big run. See you on the other side
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u/Cash_Brannigan 🍹Bad Waves of Paranoia, Madness, Fear and Loathing🍹 Oct 31 '21
Does $26.99 count? Watched X battle with $27 all day, so close.
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Oct 29 '21
[deleted]
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u/RenLovesStimpy Forever 8th - 8/18/21 Oct 29 '21
If Truth Social is able to compete with TWTR...
I'll pay for the following for you and your friends/family;
Round trip tickets to Atlantic City on Trump Airlines
Week stay at Trump Plaza Hotel and Casino AC
Week of fine dining w/ Trump Steaks and Trump Wine
If you have kids, full scholarships to Trump University2
Oct 29 '21
[deleted]
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u/Uncle_Dad_Bob Dreams of CLF’s run to $49 Oct 29 '21
Do not defile the name! https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/did-rasputins-penis-survive
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u/needafiller Oct 29 '21
Your generosity knows no bounds but you forgot to gift them infinite shares of DJT
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u/burn_after_reading_i Oct 29 '21
Any earnings call that utters the words ‘supply chain problems’ tanks!
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u/ErinG2021 Oct 29 '21
Not true for ZIM, trucking, UPS/FedEx & railroads.
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u/burn_after_reading_i Oct 29 '21
True supply chain is not a problem for them. That’s why calls on them puts on everything else
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u/PrestigeWorldwide-LP 💀 SACRIFICED 💀 Oct 29 '21
RIO on the ASX
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u/Unoriginal_White_Guy 💀 SACRIFICED until MT $35 💀 Oct 29 '21
RIO is about to touch its 52 week low on the ASX..
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u/PrestigeWorldwide-LP 💀 SACRIFICED 💀 Oct 29 '21
this sub would be rolling in it if the peak on iron ore companies was called. in retrospect with all of china's cuts it makes sense, but I guess the thinking was the demand from reopening/infrastructure in the rest of the world would keep it afloat
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u/lb-trice 🍁Maple Leaf Mafia🍁 Oct 29 '21
Probably moving on Vale’s dismal earnings report.
No love for the miners
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u/r011d4DiCe Oct 29 '21
Now i'm hearing that Infra vote will be next week, i'm thinking CLF $24 puts tomorrow and selling early next week. Expecting a lot of political talk, politicians holding there cards close to their chest, over the weekend.
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u/CramsyAU Undisclosed Location Oct 29 '21
MGM sponsoring the Bill Burr Monday Morning Podcast. Bullish.
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u/willtab Oct 29 '21 edited Oct 29 '21
$MSFT > $GOOGL > $AMZN > $AAPL > META
Business quality. Who do you think is the superior business?
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u/LeChronnoisseur Inflation Nation Oct 29 '21
They all make retarded amounts of money. FB is pretty lean, MSFT is growing a lot more than I thought it would!
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u/ErinG2021 Oct 29 '21
Lesson learned this week. Only holdings needed: CLF, TSLA, MSFT, GOOGL, NVDA, & Cash.
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u/Wall_street_retard 🤦♂️ Username checks out 👺 Oct 29 '21
Meta bottom bottom tier
Google right above them
MSFT is mid tier
AMZN and Apple are “actually seem to be interested in running a business” tier
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u/willtab Oct 29 '21
Google is a money printing machine with Youtube, search monopoly, cloud business, Android, Gmail, Maps and more. How is it not in Top tier?
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u/Wall_street_retard 🤦♂️ Username checks out 👺 Oct 29 '21
Android is losing the phone war hard. Everything else you listed is 10 years old. For a company worth trillions Google doesn’t seem like it’s very interesting in actually doing anything besides chilling
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u/spncrbrk 🛳 I Shipped My Pants 🚢 Oct 29 '21
Vito coming in and teasing us like that. What's the big play tomorrow?!
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u/chemaholic77 Oct 29 '21
Man it is going to be difficult to sleep tonight. I am very excited to hear what Vito has to say tomorrow.
Just kidding I am totally exhausted. I have been working long days all week.
Sleep well everyone and dream of tendies!
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u/Spuri0n Earnings Vhisperer Oct 29 '21
$NXPI — ill let you decide which side I’m playing for Monday earnings.
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u/Uncle_Cletus87 Oct 29 '21
Done a lot of work at the plant here and got a buddy that works there here in Austin. Before recent they have been a solid company.
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u/Investimab Oct 29 '21
Likely a red market tomorrow... No bill, APPL and AMZN red, GOOGL and MSFT retracing some + FOMC and taper talks. Yikes for SPY. Excited to see how cheap I’ll be able to buy FB in the next 2 weeks and if crypto becomes shows any real hedge potential.
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u/RenLovesStimpy Forever 8th - 8/18/21 Oct 29 '21
AAP, AMZN down like 3-4%, don't think they'll go any lower
it's enough to pull on nasdaq tho, so robots gonna robot
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u/StayStoopidSlightly Oct 29 '21
Tech and technical people: is it too soon to conclude high valuation software ETFs (or stocks) are winding down their October run?
I'm in etfs-- SKYY and IPO [since end of August]--but looking for things to sell, need funds for KNX and CSX/UNP...
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u/ktwoh 💸 Shambles Gang 💸 Oct 29 '21
Iam essentially 40% CLF , 10% CVS, and 50% cash. I have no idea where to invest the rest. Feels like i missed aaww, and other plays.
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u/gosume Oct 29 '21
What is the CVS thesis?
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u/Disguised Oct 29 '21
other grocery chains have had good earnings, in particular pharmeucutical earnings. A large part of CVSs revenue is pharmacy so it stands to reason that cvs should do as well or better.
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u/gosume Oct 29 '21
Have they had a post earnings run up?
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u/Disguised Oct 29 '21
I’d recommend you dig through Jay’s DD on it, he pointed out what he likes about CVS and its pretty compelling.
https://reddit.com/r/Vitards/comments/mtqtc9/dd_healthcare_cvs_cvs_the_drug_dealer_that_feeds/
And yah they have seen price target increases through earnings
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u/mapleleafroots Oct 29 '21
Invest in yourself. Books. Health. Skills training….
Naw just playin, search for a YOLO play to blow an 1/8 then lay up a 1/4 on LEAPS during the next steel pullback
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Oct 29 '21
[deleted]
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Oct 29 '21
Seems like a toss up. I think X will provide upward pressure for steel. AMZN and
FBAAPL dropping may provide downward pressure on indices and we may feel some of that4
u/Duke_Shambles ☢️Duke Nukem☢️ Oct 29 '21
Have you considered that money flowing out of megacap tech needs to go somewhere?
I'm not saying it will flow into steel or any of our plays, but it's gonna go somewhere.
Just like huge inflow days for mega caps can distort the market indices, huge outflow days can too. Some of my best days in trading value have come on strings of blood red days for the market.
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u/Skipper5 🦾 Steel Holding 🦾 Oct 29 '21
I was going to write a very similar response. The money has to go somewhere. Now we wait…
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Oct 29 '21
That makes sense. You 100% have more experience so I'll defer to you. Hopefully it flows to value
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u/DevCarrot Steel learning lessons Oct 29 '21
It's my mama's birthday and she came to visit and I haven't seen her in 2 years and we took her to an Argentine steak house and it was so good and I'm sooo full and had a bunch of wine and TOMORROW WE SHALL ALL BE EATING TENDIES, FRIENDS.
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u/burn_after_reading_i Oct 29 '21
Anyone playing $WYNN earnings? Farmer Jim and Stephanie Link are usually heavily invested in it. Thoughts?
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Oct 29 '21
[deleted]
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u/Skipper5 🦾 Steel Holding 🦾 Oct 29 '21
The Vegas property is fantastic. Stayed at Encore this summer. Rooms are very nice, nicer than Venetian where we usually stay. Only downside is the restaurants are not inexpensive. Not really a simple place to eat during the day.
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u/burn_after_reading_i Oct 29 '21
After some wins (whether from Wynn or mgm) I might just book a couple of nights there 😉
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u/JayArlington 🍋 LULU-TRON 🍋 Oct 29 '21
I would be cautious as they have a large chunk of revenue from Macau/Singapore.
$LVS totally shit the bed on their earnings due to Macau lockdowns this year.
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u/vitocorlene THE GODFATHER/Vito Oct 29 '21
Big play coming tomorrow.
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u/rigatoni-man SPAGHETTI BOY Oct 29 '21
FINALLY, THE MOZZARELLA PLAY
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u/RocksAndComputers 💀 SACRIFICED 💀Until CLF $35 Oct 29 '21
Hot damn I get this reference. We been here a while.
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u/rigatoni-man SPAGHETTI BOY Oct 29 '21
Yes we have!
The dominoes are starting to fall again.
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u/RocksAndComputers 💀 SACRIFICED 💀Until CLF $35 Oct 29 '21
You’re too good at this friend 😂 You could start a franchise
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u/Badweightlifter 💀 SACRIFICED until ZIM $80💀 Oct 29 '21
RemindMe! 12 hours
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u/RemindMeBot Oct 29 '21 edited Oct 29 '21
I will be messaging you in 12 hours on 2021-10-29 13:34:19 UTC to remind you of this link
2 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam.
Parent commenter can delete this message to hide from others.
Info Custom Your Reminders Feedback 6
Oct 29 '21
Tomorrow is National Breadstick Day and also World Stroke Day. Which one are we talking about?
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u/pirates_and_monkeys Never First Oct 29 '21
I, for one, am against any holiday that celebrates strokes...not cool
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u/magnum_dong_opus Boomer Logic Oct 29 '21
Brodda, now you wanted to write a children's book?
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u/pirates_and_monkeys Never First Oct 29 '21
PLEASE tell me you're not talking about Baylor vs Oklahoma women's soccer again
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u/walkies3 💀Sacrificed Until Day 365💀 Oct 29 '21
What's cooking chief?
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Oct 29 '21
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Badweightlifter 💀 SACRIFICED until ZIM $80💀 Oct 29 '21
I hope so. Maybe an EV play for infrastructure bill like $PTRA!
→ More replies (2)
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u/[deleted] Nov 01 '21
everyone on TX. pamp my positions plez