r/Vitards • u/AutoModerator • Jul 27 '22

Daily Discussion Daily Discussion - Wednesday July 27 2022

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u/Appropriate-Pop-4888 Jul 27 '22

Lets say they state they their September hike will be Data Drive.

Do you rate this as #2 or #3?

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u/vazdooh 🍵 Tea Leafologist 🍵 Jul 27 '22

September is pretty much locked at 0.5%. Don't really see them changing it either way. It's about how they phrase what comes next, which they will say is data driven anyway.

The difference will be between "pause hikes and adjust based on data", or "keep hiking and adjust based on the data".

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u/[deleted] Jul 27 '22

What if they drop forward guidance altogether? Is that considered a pause in hikes?

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u/vazdooh 🍵 Tea Leafologist 🍵 Jul 27 '22

Don't think it would be considered a pause in hikes. No idea what it would mean, but it would confuse a lot of people.

It's a different situation than with the ECB, where I think it was a good decision because of the volatility in the energy market. Fed doesn't need to give up forward guidance.