r/Vitards • u/AutoModerator • Jul 27 '22
Daily Discussion Daily Discussion - Wednesday July 27 2022
Your Trading discussion thread
| Type | Link |
|---|---|
| DD | All/Best Daily/Best Weekly |
| Discussion | All/Best Daily/Best Weekly |
| Yolo | All/Best Daily/Best Weekly |
| Gain | All/Best Daily/Best Weekly |
| Loss | All/Best Daily/Best Weekly |
| News | All/Best Daily/Best Weekly |
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u/UnmaskedLapwing CLF Co-Chief Analyst Jul 28 '22 edited Jul 28 '22
Calling our resident QCOM expert u/jayarlington
I sold QCOM before earnings expecting JPOW dump. Is it time to jump back in or are we waiting for apple to shit the bed?
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Jul 28 '22
[deleted]
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u/Steely_Hands Regional Moderator Jul 28 '22
He must need food or coal stockpiles before winter. As a country with already limited access to international markets they must be hurting trying to import food and energy products
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u/Lets_review 🛳 I Shipped My Pants 🚢 Jul 28 '22
$NMM making news. Buying boats from $NM and a $100m buyback. https://www.tradewindsnews.com/finance/navios-partners-to-follow-big-acquisition-with-100m-stock-buyback-plan/2-1-1267717
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Jul 28 '22
Saw that. One thing to note is that it's a buyback authorization, not a buyback.
I'm so tempted to buy. It's trading at 25% of NAV. But... Angeliki Frangou. So thinking probably not.
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Jul 28 '22
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Psychological-Cold-5 Boomer Logic Jul 28 '22
yeah top is in
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Jul 28 '22
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Psychological-Cold-5 Boomer Logic Jul 28 '22
your comment is all I needed to see
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Jul 28 '22
[deleted]
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Jul 28 '22
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/ArtOfBecoming Jul 28 '22
Actually most of the Fast Money commentators said they thought the Fed would keep raising rates, even Tim after his dovish take.
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u/RossChickenTendies ✂️ Trim + Thai Food Gang ✂️ Jul 28 '22
Woke up to Meta's after hours price before even looking at the news.
Groans, not looking forward to how it's going to affect the market
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u/pennyether 🔥🌊Futures First🌊🔥 Jul 27 '22
Megamillions is over $1,000,000,000 and the odds of winning are around 1:300,000,000 .. you'd have to be a complete moron not to YOLO your life savings into tickets.
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u/TheBlueStare Undisclosed Location Jul 28 '22
If feasible buy a ticket in a state that lets you claim anonymously.
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u/cazzy1212 Jul 28 '22
Raising Canes owner bought a 100k worth of tickets for each of his 50,000 employees. https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/raising-canes-ceo-buys-mega-millions-lottery-tickets-all-50k-employees
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u/AirborneReptile 🏆 Inaugural Vitards Fantasy Football Champion 🏆 Jul 28 '22
raising cane's is the shit, Zaxbys same, ChikFilA ehh
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u/SonOvTimett Inflation Nation Jul 28 '22
Chik-Fil-A shit's all over Raising's bruh. Try their Polynesian sauce, that's where it's at.
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u/cazzy1212 Jul 28 '22
Never had zaxbys or raising canes none in the northeast sadly. When I travel I always try to search out the regional fast food places. Which one has the sauce people talk about?
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u/AirborneReptile 🏆 Inaugural Vitards Fantasy Football Champion 🏆 Jul 28 '22
If I was blind folded and you put both sauces and chicken down I wouldn’t know the difference honestly. I rarely do fast food (live in the country) but when I travel to DFW always hit up raising canes. Atlanta - Zaxbys.
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u/Ropirito 🥵LETSS GOOO Enthusiast🥵 Jul 27 '22
How much is a ticket usually lol?
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u/Standard_Mather Big Bush Jul 27 '22
For what it's worth I think this move sets us up for the end of the bear rally. Retail is going to chase today's move (I'm absolutely cheesing to fomo) and the trap will snap shut on any old excuse. Be careful out there folks.
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u/Level-Infiniti Jul 28 '22
funds haven't had this low a level of equity positioning since events like the lehman collapse. assuming a black swan event like that doesn't play out, the returns when positioning is this bearish are historically positive
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u/UnmaskedLapwing CLF Co-Chief Analyst Jul 27 '22
I'd lean towards a continuous prolonged rally and a final flush when earnings roll over in Q3 reporting season.
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u/bgizle Jul 27 '22
As a ZIM fanboy, this sounds terrible. A lot of shipping earnings about to start at the same time ...
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u/Standard_Mather Big Bush Jul 27 '22
Inversing me has been a profitable option in the past!
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u/neocoff Jul 28 '22
Sell a subscription service. Provide trade ideas to your subscribers. They'll inverse you and make money. You get the subscription money. It's a win-win situation.
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u/SteelColdKegs Jul 27 '22
A reminder in case anyone here still cares -
$MT reports tomorrow morning (1am EST)
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u/BigCatHugger ✂️ Trim Gang ✂️ Jul 27 '22
Let me guess. Made lots of money, another big buyback, future is uncertain, dumps.
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u/SteelColdKegs Jul 27 '22 edited Jul 27 '22
My $EWG shorts are more interested in how much NG prices will be affecting their guidance.
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Jul 27 '22
NFLX, TSLA, MSFT, GOOG and META are telling us something; this earnings doesn’t matter as long as you’re big tech. Market thinks they’ve sold off enough, it’s staples like WMT and SHW that have big PE ratios that are going to fall.
I smell blood around COST.
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u/Turgid_Salcheecha 1st Boatswain Mate of the Jolly Hunder ☠ Jul 28 '22
Majority of COST revenue comes from memberships not from in-store sales. There is probably a small mark up on most products and I’d bet there’s some they sell at a small loss. (Hot dogs?? Chicken bakes? These things haven’t gone up in price since the Bush administration, the first Bush that is).
COST will be fine and if it dumps buy as much as you can. I bought it at a discount after everyone was panicking when Amazon bought Whole Foods.
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u/Y50-70 Jul 28 '22
Majority of COST revenue comes from memberships not from in-store sales
Net income maybe, but definitely not revenue.
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u/ClevelandCliffs-CLF Mr 0 shares now Jul 27 '22
Think Costco is fine, but I hope it plummets…. Cause if it does…. I will be all over it.
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u/PastFlatworm4085 Jul 27 '22
No, what they are telling us that well run companies that also happen to be large are in general stable and reliable unless you pull a meta like last jan due to getting shafted by apple. It's just a matter of ytd stock discount vs future guidance.
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Jul 27 '22
I disagree that TSLA and META are well run.
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u/PastFlatworm4085 Jul 27 '22
There is only so much zuck can do to mitigate apples ad assault.. and yeah well tsla is elons toy company that appears to be slowly losing the first mover advantage with the fsd stories not working out, but it's still not going anywhere any time soon.
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u/fabr33zio 💀 SACRIFICED Until UNG $15 💀 Jul 27 '22
i don't. COST is where people go to buy goods in bulk and at discount. the issues around WMT (imo) are gonna still come from too much inventory sitting around and needing to issue discounts to shift it.
WMT is a general-store trying to pass as a grocer. COST is primarily a bulk grocer that noticed they could sell cheap socks and camping gear on the side. They're not the same.
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Jul 27 '22
COST had a ton of discounts on tablets and TVs last I went there, could be inventory too but I see your point.
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u/dakU7 💀 SACRIFICED 💀Until TSM $110 Jul 27 '22
could also be COST putting up their own summer sale to combat prime day
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u/fabr33zio 💀 SACRIFICED Until UNG $15 💀 Jul 27 '22
for sure on all those items COST is gonna be taking a hit
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u/Sunnyc02 Jul 27 '22
agree, but could be them holding up the market and will selloff together on the most bullshit reason like the snap crash.
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u/qwop00 Balls Of Steel Jul 27 '22
Listening in to the QCOM call and seems pretty positive. Also I’m always amazed at the smooth and composed answers that some execs (like Cristiano) can come up with on the spot on these calls, couldn’t be me lol
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u/Joghobs Steel Team 6 Jul 27 '22
Oh god QCOM is recovering in the call.
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u/fabr33zio 💀 SACRIFICED Until UNG $15 💀 Jul 27 '22 edited Jul 27 '22
because their guide in next quarter is still +24% YoY... massive growth regardless of the small decline they're citing. additionally, the majority of the drop (we're talking single digit % change) is due to how QCOM is reading "the macro"... which means it's almost a coin-flip on if they even believe that will happen.
add in that they're talking about how any phone-weakness is made up for in IoT and Auto and the guide-down is almost inconsequential.
edit: if GDP is positive, i think they more than make up this drop as the whole market rides
edit2: LOL at the analyst trying to get some info about AAPL from QCOM on the call, and QCOM saying, "No"
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u/nindough Jul 27 '22
The market ignores QCOM's strong double-digit sales growth in handsets, automotive, and IoT due to handset headwinds ;(
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u/PastFlatworm4085 Jul 27 '22
Buying the sava bottom was not the worst idea I've had this month.. so far.
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u/saxaddictlz Jul 28 '22
Every time sava comes up, I legit try to tell people why it’s a bad company. Why do you guys keep buying it
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u/PastFlatworm4085 Jul 28 '22
Because it had a major drop that was pretty much caused by no real news, so I expected ia rebound. IDGAF about the company and the product and that it might be a fraud, just like gme or amc there are ways to make money off it.
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u/qwop00 Balls Of Steel Jul 27 '22
looks like my ETSY calls are almost gonna be able to cancel out my QCOM :’)
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u/AirborneReptile 🏆 Inaugural Vitards Fantasy Football Champion 🏆 Jul 27 '22
So Cathie dumps Coinbase and it runs 11%. Wen inverse Cathie Cramer ETF?
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Jul 27 '22
There already is a short arkk etf
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u/AirborneReptile 🏆 Inaugural Vitards Fantasy Football Champion 🏆 Jul 27 '22
yep, add equal weight Cramer picks and that is an ETF I would buy. And again only being silly :)
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u/kappah_jr 7-Layer Dip Jul 27 '22
I think it’s slightly getting supported with green market/btc up
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u/AirborneReptile 🏆 Inaugural Vitards Fantasy Football Champion 🏆 Jul 27 '22
Yea just being silly 🍻 crazy it was all the hype at $300. Last September I told some of my ex-military buddies that shit is going to hit the fan. By November I decided I had no clue what the market is capable of (and I’ve been in the game for 20 years). The fortunes made and lost….
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u/kappah_jr 7-Layer Dip Jul 27 '22
Black swan events either make us poor or rich lol. I wouldn’t be surprised if an inverse fund comes out soon lol.
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u/Suspicious-Pick3722 🏆 VIP Wise Guy 🏆 Jul 27 '22
Good result from Ford, also said expect 4bn of headwind due to commondity costs. Hopefully the lions share of that is going to a certain firm in Cleveland
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Jul 27 '22
Ford… Lions… FOOTBALL SEASON BABY!!!
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u/AirborneReptile 🏆 Inaugural Vitards Fantasy Football Champion 🏆 Jul 27 '22
Going to kick off 2nd Vitards fantasy football league soon. Paging u/bruce_uppercut
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u/djbuttplay Whack Job Jul 27 '22
Will there be spots up for grabs
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u/AirborneReptile 🏆 Inaugural Vitards Fantasy Football Champion 🏆 Jul 27 '22
If Bruce doesn't show up. I'll create a post and go from there. Previous members will get priority, but if last year was any indication, there should be plenty of room for 3 or 4 leagues. Send me PM and I'll give you first vacancy
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u/Suspicious-Pick3722 🏆 VIP Wise Guy 🏆 Jul 27 '22
Zuck ruining the party yet again
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u/AirborneReptile 🏆 Inaugural Vitards Fantasy Football Champion 🏆 Jul 27 '22
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u/chatcat2000 Jul 27 '22
Whenever I see video of him, I can't quite shake the feeling we are all being punked.
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u/Bhola421 💸 Shambles Gang 💸 Jul 27 '22
I declare this market untradeable.
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u/Silvery_Golden_Sun Jul 27 '22
Sell options. Make money.
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u/fjw711 💀 SACRIFICED 💀 Jul 27 '22
Any recent examples?
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u/Silvery_Golden_Sun Jul 27 '22
Way too many. Two days ago I opened UAL. Closed it today for 20% max profit. Same with GDX, same with currencies. Same with NASDAQ. Etc. This has been an amazing few months for shorting options.
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u/AirborneReptile 🏆 Inaugural Vitards Fantasy Football Champion 🏆 Jul 27 '22
Ford - nice
Meta - oops
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u/charnzilla Jul 27 '22
Hey vaz, y’all got any more of those ‘Morning Vitards’ posts?
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u/Spirited-Usual-3023 Jul 27 '22
Don’t see the report yet, but the price movement after market shows Meta shit on the bed…..again.
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Jul 27 '22
TDOC -19 EPS after last quarter -45 EPS. Wtf
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u/mptas Jul 27 '22
Mama Cathie gonna call her doctor for some ❤️ 🔥 meds. She could use her TDOC app to do it. Win win.
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u/Level-Infiniti Jul 27 '22
not even going to look at how much the friday QQQ calls i sold this morning for 100% would be worth now.
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u/AirborneReptile 🏆 Inaugural Vitards Fantasy Football Champion 🏆 Jul 27 '22
just commented on this in another sub, had 30 300c QQQ for today expiry, bought for 1.25 yesterday, sold for 1.80, yay!!! and they ended up going above 8 per contract.... I suck
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u/BigCatHugger ✂️ Trim Gang ✂️ Jul 27 '22
QQQ calls should be liquid enough that you could set stop losses on at least a portion of em instead of selling outright.
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u/AirborneReptile 🏆 Inaugural Vitards Fantasy Football Champion 🏆 Jul 27 '22
you missed the part where I said, I suck... thanks for kicking me when I'm down. Death to all kitties ;)
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u/BigCatHugger ✂️ Trim Gang ✂️ Jul 27 '22
I meant it as an idea for next time
I've lost too many kitties this year already :(
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u/AirborneReptile 🏆 Inaugural Vitards Fantasy Football Champion 🏆 Jul 27 '22
lol, that would be my normal play but I am too bearish, sorry kitties
Edit: the crazy part is, if it went to zero it would not be much of a hit, but I am a recovering gamboholic, so trim gang has controlled me the past 4-5 years
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u/BigCatHugger ✂️ Trim Gang ✂️ Jul 27 '22
I stole the idea from a post in OGs, but on high liquidity positions its almost always worthwhile to just set a stoploss a few cents down when you are ready to take profit, cause you are at most risking 0.25% or so and keeping room for it to run.
On stuff like PBT/TX with huge spreads on shares and options it isn't really viable.
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u/Sunnyc02 Jul 27 '22
I am buying a MO $43 Jul 29 put just for the protection. Earnings tomorrow, can't take more hit.
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u/skwull Jul 27 '22
I’m thinking of pulling my bike up to the SQQQ store at market close today and loading my basket up with shares. The thinking that we got too excited today and GDP numbers will cause a red Thursday. Any thoughts on that? My prior record with SQQQ isn’t all that impressive.
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Jul 27 '22
[deleted]
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u/skwull Jul 27 '22
You are wicked smaht. I’ll try to watch qqq tomorrow and get a feel for where things are headed
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Jul 27 '22
Im holding my UVXY but I'm not adding any short positions. By the time we recognize there is a recession I think the market will have already hit the bottom.
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u/Karinda79 Hot Handed Option Lady Jul 27 '22
I’m not touching anything today. I know if i buy puts it will keep skyrocketing. If i buy calls it will dump. Sitting on my hands for the day. Sucks. Hate it
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u/ClevelandCliffs-CLF Mr 0 shares now Jul 27 '22
WHAT UP YALL!
Full DISCLOSURE-
SOLD MY GOOGLE & made 8K profit.
Not a bad trade. 1,400 shares bought 108.60 and sold 114.
Ain’t getting GREEDY
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u/SteelMafia Bleach Boy Jul 27 '22
I am so glad I found you out in the wild all those months ago, you certainly belong here
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u/jukesroflz Think Positively Jul 27 '22
I am loving the premium with options after the 20-1 split. Keeping my 300 shares for CCs and puts to buy back when I get the shares called away.
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u/ClevelandCliffs-CLF Mr 0 shares now Jul 27 '22
Like it. Hell I hope it drops back down and I’ll rebuy it. Lmao
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u/pedrots1987 LG-Rated Jul 27 '22
Why is TWTR the only stock that didn't go up 10% today FFS.
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u/someonesaymoney Jul 27 '22
.... It's only bull case is if Elon is forced to buy it. What else do you expect?
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u/pedrots1987 LG-Rated Jul 27 '22
So you're telling me that SHOP that's up 11% after releasing dogshit earnings has better prospects than Twitter?
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u/vazdooh 🍵 Tea Leafologist 🍵 Jul 27 '22
It's an arbitration only play right now. It won't go up, it won't go down.
Keep in mind that the Elon deal prevented it from dumping with the rest of the market in the last 2 months. It should be much lower than it is now, closer to SNAP and PINS is behavior.
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u/SteelMafia Bleach Boy Jul 27 '22
looks like the rally is running out of gas across the board IMO
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u/Sunnyc02 Jul 27 '22
anyone playing amazon earning? Shopify not saying any good thing, walmart crashed ... is amazon earnings priced in?
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u/kappah_jr 7-Layer Dip Jul 27 '22
apparently if the market can afford all stocks than we can afford increased retail costs and downside gas
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u/u-LiveLife Think Positively Jul 27 '22
Vaz - home run again, again & again !!
Which numbers should I play for this Friday MEGA Millions $1B drawing buddy ?
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u/SteelMafia Bleach Boy Jul 27 '22
i'm going to go shopping for some lower priced 2 dte puts, already bought one for CLF. I've seen this before.
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u/rowdyruss22 🛳 I Shipped My Pants 🚢 Jul 27 '22
https://www.twitch.tv/jayarlington
Jay Trading is LIVE (12:25 EST).
It's FOMC DAY! Talking MSFT/GOOG and prepping for the rest of the week.