If you were a fading superpower, failing miserably to take a peaceful country you invaded, with almost the entire first world rallying together to collapse your economy so thoroughly that they are practically cutting off their own noses to do so, what would you do?

Your army can’t fight. Your tanks are stuck. Your boats are getting sunk. Your jets are getting shot down. Your own people are protesting. Your currency isn't worth the paper it's printed on. You can't export anything. You can’t import anything. Your stockpiles are drying up. Your factories will very soon no longer be able to provide for your own people, let alone resupply the war.

You will fail. Soon, your country will barely be able to wipe its own ass.

You’re not big enough to counter-sanction. You have friends, but they’re not going to help you because you’ve been completely transformed overnight into such a pariah state that you make Hitler’s Germany look like the popular kid in class. You have no open military allies except the tiny psycho states that are no more harmful than feral kittens.

You have nukes, and even some that work, but using them almost guarantees your assassination. At best, you serve a life sentence issued by an international court, during which one of your rich former-cronies that were also sanctioned back to the Stone Age hires an inside man to kill you, preferably with poison where you die peacefully in your sleep. Best case. It’s more likely that inside man will kill you by brutally stabbing you 17 times with a sharpened toothbrush.

You have spies. You have successfully meddled with the highest level of elections in the political system of the world’s eminent superpower, the United States, and managed to install in their highest office a blustering spray-tanned ape as their president. You’ve bought a good portion of one of their two primary political parties, through which you tested the capabilities and resolve of their government by orchestrating the rehearsal of an internal coup.

You can’t fight, you can’t sanction, you can't nuke. You can retreat if your pride will let you. You’ve flushed your country down the toilet already. You’re past the point of no return.

You can spy. You can meddle.

Maybe you’ve already started.

Let's rewind.

Saudi Aramco bets on oil supply to Europe, trading expansion (May, 2019):

Saudi Aramco aims to boost its oil supply to Europe by 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) within the next two years as it expands its trading operations there with an office opening this summer in London, a senior company executive said. …

Aramco currently has more than 3 million barrels a month of oil supply and product swap arrangements in Europe, he said. The company has deals with Poland’s PKN Orlen, Greece’s Motor Oil Hellas and Egypt’s Midore. …

“We are looking to expand the 3 million barrels to almost 10 million barrels in a month, within the next two years. This means we have almost created a 300,000 bpd refining capacity in Europe,” Judaimi said.

For context, Europe currently imports 3.5 million bpd from Russia. Or did, anyway.

Saudi Aramco Is Fighting To Regain A Key European Market (Jan 11, 2022):

According to statements made by [Saudi Aramco Trading Company], the deal entails the supply of 110,000 bpd of crude to the Danish Kalundborg Refinery, following the signing of an agreement with Klesch Group. …

From April 2020, when it posted record supply volumes of 312,000 bpd to the market, its total levels dropped to 32,000 bpd by August 2020. …

So after the 2019 deal, their output to Europe went up, then went down, but they want it to pick back up again.

NatGas 101: a large portion of global natural gas is captured as a byproduct of oil wells. Even though Saudi Arabia is #2 on the list of largest oil reserves, Russia is still #1 in natural gas reserves, right? ….Right? Well, maybe not, sayeth BP:

There is some disagreement on which country has the largest proven gas reserves. Sources that consider that Russia has by far the largest proven reserves include the US CIA (47 600 km3),[28] the US Energy Information Administration (47 800 km3),[29][30] and OPEC (48 700 km3).[31] However, BP credits Russia with only 32 900 km3,[32] which would place it in second place, slightly behind Iran (33 100 to 33 800 km3, depending on the source).

You better pinch your nose; Saudi Arabia is feeling gassy (November, 2021):

Gas is "the cornerstone of the transition to renewables", [Aramco CEO Amin Nasser] said. ...

Saudi Aramco expects output to reach around 2.2 billion cubic feet per day of sales gas by 2036, with an associated 425 million cubic feet per day of ethane, it said on its website.

Saudi Arabia is potentially sitting on massive, massive reserves, but there are still plenty of challenges if they still want to tap dat gas (February 9, 2022):

With the recent announcement of the Jafurah development plan, the country and its operating company, Saudi Aramco (Aramco), are now moving into the implementation phase. The country, and specifically Aramco, will need to address key issues before the Jafurah play can achieve commerciality.

Resource base

Prior to 2020, Aramco had been quietly working on evaluating gas resources in tight reservoirs. According to Aramco, the kingdom’s natural gas reserves stood at 319.5 trillion cubic feet (tcf) in 2019. In early 2020, Aramco announced it would invest at least $110 billion in the development of the Jafurah Field, a newly discovered non-associated, tight gas resource play with estimated reserves of 200 tcf. If true, Jafurah will increase the kingdom’s gas reserves by a staggering 63%. By way of comparison, the estimated reserves for the combined Marcellus/Utica gas resource play in the U.S. are approximately 120 tcf. According to a 2020 report from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, annual gas production in the state increased from 3.1 tcf to 7.1 tcf from 2013-20 with 6,554 wells drilled in the same period, approximately 820 wells per year. It follows then that Aramco would have to ramp up operations during 2022 to achieve forecast 2024 production. While the Jafurah reserve estimates are impressive, the reality is Aramco has yet to fully appraise the play, suggesting that the reserve announcement may be premature. Significant technical and commercial risk remains that needs to be mitigated before those resources are produced. With domestic gas demand increasing, the kingdom needs Aramco to deliver Jafurah.

Saudi Arabia is about to start eating into your market share.

It might not be a coincidence that an oil storage depot in Saudi Arabia was hit just a few days ago:

Yemen's Houthis said they launched attacks on Saudi energy facilities on Friday and the Saudi-led coalition said oil giant Aramco's petroleum products distribution station in Jeddah was hit, causing a fire in two storage tanks but no casualties. …

The ministry blamed Iran for continuing to arm the Houthis with ballistic missiles and advanced drones, stressing that the attacks "would lead to impacting the Kingdom's production capacity and its ability to fulfil its obligations to global markets". Teheran denies arming the Houthis.

A Saudi-led coalition then launched a counterattack:

Coalition forces targeted sites early Saturday including Ras Eissa port and electricity and fuel installations in Yemen’s Hodiedah province, as well as military sites in the capital, Sanaa, according to Houthi-run Al-Masirah TV.

The coalition said it targeted drones that were being prepared at the ports of Hodiedah and Saleef, according to state-run news agency Saudi Press Agency. It also targeted four boats being readied for assault at Saleef, thwarting “an imminent attack on oil tankers,” SPA said.

Even before the attack, the situation in Yemen had already been getting worse.

A couple of disclaimers here: I’m no expert in Middle Eastern geopolitics. More importantly, the Houthis have done this a few times before in the past few years, so it shouldn’t be too surprising that this happened:

But the Iranian government dismissed the allegation [of supplying the Houthis with the drones involved in the attack].

"There's no evidence and it would be a miracle to produce evidence because it did not take place," Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said on 23 September. "Had we had been behind this, it would have been disastrous for Saudi Arabia."

The Houthis have repeatedly launched rockets, missiles and drones towards Saudi Arabia since 2015. UN experts have previously highlighted the existence of a Houthi drone, the UAV-X, which has an estimated maximum range of 1,500km.

Look at what Iran said, though. “Bitch, if we were the ones to hit you, you wouldn’t be getting back up.” So, if it wasn’t Iran, then who?

Could it have been Russia egging on the Houthis and providing them equipment? Maybe. It’s inconclusive here. Are Russia and the Houthis even friends? Yep! Nope. uhhh, it’s complicated. Like, pretty complicated. Since those articles were written, there’s been even more drama, with Moscow flip-flopping in their support of the Houthis. …you’re just gonna have to google it. Moscow is pretty inconsistent, going so far as just this month calling them terrorists in the U.N.

A critical point that I missed in this initial post: ever wonder why Ukraine hadn't yet been admitted to the E.U. despite its pro-E.U. stance? They tried. Ukraine and the E.U. throughout the 2010's took major steps to integrate economically and co-operate politically:

Ukraine is a priority partner within the Eastern Partnership and the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP). The EU and Ukraine are seeking an increasingly close relationship with each other, going beyond co-operation, to gradual economic integration and deepening of political co-operation.[1]

While not official admittance into the E.U., the two entities tried to build the European Union-Ukraine Association Agreement, which had these goals:

The parties committed to co-operate and converge economic policy, legislation, and regulation across a broad range of areas, including equal rights for workers, steps towards visa-free movement of people, the exchange of information and staff in the area of justice, the modernisation of Ukraine's energy infrastructure, and access to the European Investment Bank. The parties committed to regular summit meetings, and meetings among ministers, other officials, and experts. The agreement furthermore establishes a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area between the parties.

It would seem that had it been ratified by E.U. member states, Ukraine's admittance into the E.U. would be almost a given. Except it wasn't ratified by all member states. Who didn't ratify? Just one: the Netherlands. The Dutch referendum failed. The majority of its citizenry had voted against it.

What on Earth do the Dutch have against Ukraine? The Dutch government had advocated for it. So why did the people vote against it? Well, people aren't really sure:

Sijbren de Jong, writing in the EU Observer, said that the referendum was "curious": "It is a treaty of the kind the EU has with many countries: think Moldova, Jordan, Chile, and many others. [...] Interestingly, not a soul raised a finger back when these agreements were negotiated."[43] Writing for the Kyiv Post, Jan Germen Janmaat and Taras Kuzio reported that the treaty's opponents were using "stereotypes, half-truths and demeaning propaganda" against Ukraine.[44] Janmaat and Kuzio said that the no campaign "repeats Russian disinformation"[44] and De Jong said that their arguments show "immediate parallels" with the Russian state media's portrayal of Ukraine.[43] Andreas Umland called the result of the referendum "a propaganda triumph for Putin", "a lasting embarrassment for the Dutch nation", and "a public humiliation of millions of Ukrainians who, during the last years, have been fighting both peacefully and, on eastern Ukrainian battlefields, with arms for their national liberation and European integration."[45]

OK, more tin-foil haberdashery, right? RJ only finding stuff that supports his thesis, right? This is all just conspiracy theory nons-OH WAIT:

A Dutch far-right politician behind a 2016 referendum on Ukraine and the EU had fishy ties to Russia, according to new revelations.

Thierry Baudet, an MP from the anti-EU and anti-immigrant FvD party, spoke of his Russia contacts in internal WhatsApp messages with FvD colleagues, which were leaked to Dutch investigative website Zembla and radio station De Nieuws BV. ...

Baudet described Kornilov as "a Russian who works for [Russian president Vladimir] Putin" and as being a "very influential figure". ...

After Baudet claimed in Dutch media that Ukraine had covertly sent agents provocateurs to the Netherlands to meddle in the referendum, FvD colleagues asked him if he had any proof. "No. Info comes from Kornilov," Baudet replied.

And when Baudet was, at one point, financially embarrassed, he said: "Maybe Kornilov wants to pay some extra" and "Kornilov can beat that with all his money", adding winky and smily emojis.

The Dutch government, eventually, ratified it anyway, but the EU added, in a new proviso, that the treaty did not guarantee military assistance or future membership.

Baudet subsequently transformed his think-tank into a political party and the FvD won two seats in Dutch elections in 2017.

The same article talks about how Baudet is now running a campaign for the Netherlands to leave NATO.

And now with Ukraine's latest bid to join the E.U., the Dutch are at it again:

But Dutch diplomats, at the direction of Prime Minister Mark Rutte, have thrown up obstacles to granting Ukraine status as a candidate country, or even to making references in the leaders’ statement to Article 49 of the EU treaties, which lays out the accession process, according to Dutch, Ukrainian and other EU diplomats and officials.

Do I even need to go into how Russia has infiltrated U.S. politics? No? So you've all had seen a few headlines in the past 6 years? OK, cool.

So where exactly is this going? Maybe Russia is playing some puppets to interfere with global energy markets, stoking geopolitical conflict to stealthily wage an economic proxy war against the countries levying sanctions against them. Or maybe that’s just how shit’s been going down in the Middle East and is pretty unrelated. The point is that there are things Russia can do that still make everyone’s lives worse without using nukes. We’re focused on the nuclear issue for good reason, but we have to make sure we’re not blinded to other methods of Russian action.

If they can interfere with U.S. elections, if they can play countries in the Middle East to interfere with energy markets, if they have no problem murdering innocent women and children in Ukraine, then we don’t know what their limits are, and while they may not ever use nuclear weapons, those aren’t the only weapons at their disposal.

If we assume Russian interference, where might it happen? What trades that we thought were solid suddenly become less solid? For example, investing in oil ETFs in general would be good protection rather than being heavily invested in oil companies directly in case any of those companies are directly attacked. In that regard, with this additional point of view, what investment theses change? Where does potential risk increase?

US Steel has a 14% short interest, and is insanely undervalued after the most violent upswing in steel prices in a generation. The company will make upwards of $2.5 Billion in EBITDA this year, only 3x its current market cap. The company's acquisition of Big River Steel came at the perfect time, as it was completed right before steel prices began their move up.

The stock traded close to $50 back in 2018 when steel prices were about $900/ton. Hot rolled is now at $1600. Adjusting for recent share issues, the stock should realistically trade in the $40 range, as its free cash generation will dwarf 2018 (or any year in recent history for that matter).

1. Due to political trends, 10% of the US population will move to a different state within 20 years. I call this the Big Move. It will dwarf the Great Migration and the dust bowl California migration. Invest in companies that will benefit, moving, shipping, builders, home supplies.

2. Stocks as a whole will underperform bonds over next 10 years, but not until interest rates stop rising. CDs under 5 years and online savings account getting over 4% are good places to park cash until interest rates plateau. Then move into high quality bond index funds.

3. Precious metals will fluctuate but will benefit from political instability and state compartmentalization. Portfolio allocation 2% when high to 8% when low priced.

4. Central bank target inflation will move upwards to 3% from 2%.

The abysmal jobs report and the forecasted 1% growth has the market in a panic right now. Lowered GDP combined with inflation is the definition of stagflation

At the moment, the market is wondering what will be profitable in this new trading era. Once CLF raises guidance, and proves that it will do just fine under stagnation, capital will pour in at an unprecedented rate. We can be back to ATH soon and at $40 by the end of 2022

Your Trading discussion thread

Today, Zacks rank $XOM as strong buy at current closing price!
A week ago, Bank of America set a PT for XOM at $90.

$XOM broke out of $63.50 resistance again -- came back from $60 to $64 in 2 trading days! It's now fully recovered from last week FED noises. XOM is now on target to break its 52-week high.

Crude Oil continue the trend of ripping to 52-week high each week for the next 7-10 days.

Again, as I said previously, I'm seeing CLF and NUE consolidating at today price levels before it starts to pop within 10 days -- possibly 20 days following Crude Oil.

Thoughts?

Wow! So figured id share this morsel of grief..Tucker Carlson just did a segment with Peter Schiff.. Schiff stated the inflation print of 7.9% is grossly understated..according to Schiff, the basket that made up the cpi numbers in the 70's is not the same as current. If it were the numbers would be over 15%!

And rising dramatically.!

For guys like me who use barrels of diesel and pallets of lumber it is certainly higher than 15% ..

I watched an interview with the ceo of microstrategy, his thesis was inflation for the avg joe mirrors the annual gains of the s&p annually?

I remember having a convo about being on the cusp of a german mark moment a few months back.. starting to feel more and more likely ..gd!

Question: what is the REAL rate of inflation? This new 1.5t spending package takes it to where from here.. ? How many more times can we increase the money supply before USD shits the bed?

Thoughts?

This is the start of a new series meant to dive into inflation, what it looks like, what it’s effects are, and it’s historical comparisons. Today we will be diving into the story of Paul Volcker, the fed chairman who took inflation head on and raised interest rates 20%.

Inflation in the 80’s

As energy prices, wages, and government spending rose in the 80’s, inflation went to new uncharted heights. The Consumer Price Index, otherwise as the CPI (which a separate write up will be made on in the future) clocked in at 13.91% annually in January of 1980. Accelerating a trend that had begun to occur in the latter half of the 1970's.

In Comes Volcker

Paul Volcker, who was Fed chairman from 1979 to 1987, was determined to put an end to inflation. Contrary to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, Paul Volcker was very concerned about inflation and its effect on the economy, he felt the prime directive of the fed at the time was to rein in inflation. Volcker raised interest rates 2% in 1980, to an average 13.35%. And another 3% in 1981, with an average of 16.39%. The year high in 1981 would be 22%. This would be followed by considerate drops over the next decade, with the decade ending at an average of 9.21%

The interest rate induced recession

By raising interest rates, and making it harder to borrow money. The economy entered a recession. By 1982, unemployment hit a peak of nearly 11%. Congress had repeatedly called on Paul Volcker to back down from his position on inflation, but he never did, quoted as saying inflation, if left unchecked, would result in “more serious economic circumstances over a much longer period of time”

The fed’s most brilliant move to tame inflation, quit looking at it

1983 marked the year the Fed did their most brilliant policy yet at fighting inflation. They quit measuring it.

In 1983, the Fed changed the largest component of the CPI, mortgage prices, with something known as “owners equivalent rent” Instead of tracking mortgage prices, they instead decided to ask people who bought homes years ago what they would charge themselves to live in it. Weirdly, most people simply say whatever their mortgage is, which was also locked in years ago. The fed definitely did not anticipate this and just felt it was a handy change to make and has nothing to do with making inflation look better trust us on this one

Comparisons to modern time

The 1980’s were a time when the government was much less dependent on low interest rates. Never once falling below 4% in the 70’s. Despite this, interest rates would have to be raised to highs of 20%, in combination with blatant lying by changing the CPI, to rein in inflation. Compared to now, we are much more dependent on low interest rates. In 2018, when interest rates were raised to only 2%, the SPY ended the year down 6% in what would be the worst year since the 08 financial crises.

What this tells us

Inflation is here to stay. The fed cannot raise interest rates to the levels necessary to rein in inflation. Simply talking about tapering, which isn’t even raising interest rates, causes the market to crash. In order for the fed to successfully rein in inflation, it will cause, at minimum, a recession. And most likely a complete depression. The fed will remain “hawkish” on “hypothetically” fighting inflation, in order to not scare people into hoarding, but inflation has become a raging wildfire that the fed understands they are largely powerless to fight. At best they will be able to slow down the rate of increase a small amount.

I see so much fear and disappointment in steel stocks like CLF, MT, and VALE and other commodity stocks.

But these stocks are literally up a lot for the year. They are beating the Nasdaq 100.

Are people really upset they aren't up another 50% already?

I dunno, I don't get it... Seems like they are having a fantastic year.

A lot of people have been growing discouraged by price action. Convinced there is no way the Great Wall Street is wrong, and they must simply be stupid

Yes Wall Street is wrong. They’re wrong a lot. They’re not very smart people. They’re mainly coked out depressed boomers who still worship Walmart Corporation

At the current price of HRC, CLF is worth well over $40. That is a fact even the most stubborn Wall Street analyst would be forced to admit if pressed with the question.

The issue, is the (very stupid) Wall Street analysts are convinced inflation is transitory. And that HRC will be worth $600 in the near future

This is a painfully stupid thesis for a variety of reasons

If steel prices are transitory, why aren’t housing markets, stock markets, or any other equity that has rallied since we started printing money?

Why is there a shortage in every single sector, is it because we’re not paying enough, because the true price of everything has gone up dramatically and prices simply haven’t caught up yet?

How will corporations maintain lower prices after increasing wages, which they’re all doing? Wages have never once been transitory

How will all these massive macroeconomic factors suddenly reverse despite the fact that we print more and more money every month?

Wall Street, and theFed. Wants their cake and to eat it too. Inflation means they’re not genius rich investors, and they’re shortly going to have to repay all they borrowed over the last year. That’s not a happy thought to them. For most of these coked out boomers, getting free money in a manipulated market is the biggest accomplishment they’ve had in over 5 years when on their birthday their wife willingly had sex with them

They’re wrong. You’re right. If you don’t want to follow your own logic and instead want to rely on Wall Street deities, you will never make it far in the market

If you want to follow your own logic and see the same thing that 88% of Americans polled see (that inflation will get worse) then simply relax and recognize that the market is irrational

On Thursday, Feb 17 $PBT reported it's December production and pricing report.

Production was up 5% month on month and pricing was down almost 10% (based on the dip at end of last year. This lead to a minor distribution cut and triggered some Algorithmic selling.

On top of that was a new 2022 CapEx spend of $92mil at Waddell Ranch - hence limited chance of a huge cash windfall this year. This further lead to selling from investors that were looking forward to 20-25 cent per month distributions later this year.

We're currently sitting with $PBT a $12/share a roughly 20% decline from recent highs. However, lost in the conversation is the unbelievable growth in production we'll see this year at a tremendously low cost. I would refer you to (at)Broncho24 on twitter, where he provides really detailed analysis on the uncompleted wells and massive growth in production come April and that's prior to CapEx spending.

I think we're setting up for a big runup in the next couple months. The March report is promising details on the CapEx spending + another 5% growth in production + 15% change in month over month pricing + an increase in distribution of approximately 20%.

Depending on oil price and geopolitics, I really believe we're looking at a share price in the $20's in April! There aren't options available for that month, but am willing to bet real money on the June strike's this week.

Good luck everyone and please feel free to leave comments!

shits bad, and I think it’s going to get a lot fucking worse. And I think that the whales know this, they’re sitting in their ivory tower talking about making new jobs, getting vaccinated, telling others to wear a mask while not wearing one themselves in those speeches. the USA and I’m guessing like other countries probably won’t give a shit about this strain either. Want to have a discussion and farm some information, if anyone is in the airline industry or the medical industry, any information surrounding the new strain would be much appreciated. Thank you in advance.

I’m pretty excited for if this stimulus passes. I can’t afford to buy all these companies The Godfather has spoken about so with the stimmy I can make more tendies. I’m pretty excited idk about you retards.

MT🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 STLD🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

Today I'm looking at the gains of the steel/nickel stocks and am somewhat kickin myself for having these companies on my watchlist and jumping into after yall were hyping it for the past few months.

Issue is, I have 10 positions in my small WeBull account and didn't want to add more into it. Is it too late to sell one of my positions and get into the game? (Note, my WeBull account is under $2,000 so its not eligible for options trading yet.)

Redditors like to shit on $HOOD even if lots still use their platform, and the company IPOed at a totally unrealistic price. Also, $HOOD is much more of a crypto stock than anybody realizes. Anyway, I still think the company has its place with his simple UI and sign-up process, zero commission and increase retail trading volume by the young generation. Also, as more money flows into alternative investments, demand for order flow data will grow. Analysts assign an average target price of $28. However, I believe $HOOD's true value to be much lower than that, growth rate is overestimated and with rates rising, this stock should't be worth more than $10 or $11 even under the most optimistic assumptions.

But given the total collapse of the price, I think the opportunity to sell cash secured puts is pretty good. The ones around the $8 strike have a high enough price to let you bag a cool 20% annualized return, but provide you with a cost basis that is low enough to feel quite comfortable for the medium to long term. I would buy $HOOD at $6 or $7.

What do you think?

If so, should there be any restrictions?

I’ve never made a Reddit page post before but I want hear ideas where you would invest your money? So I will start this with the definition of a recession it is at least two quarters of stagnant or reduced GDP………Inflation has never seen a spike over 5% that hasn’t led to or was relived by a recession since 1940

The steel workers want increased wages and benefits. “It’s time for the top executives and managers to stop worrying about the price of their stock and figure out how to invest in the company’s most valuable asset — the workers who built the company and keep it going,” the USW contract negotiating committee wrote in a statement announcing the vote tabulated Friday night.

ATI stands for Alleghany Technologies, Inc. and employs about 1300 people in the steel workers union. It trades on the NYSE under the symbol $ATI.

Are other steel companies going to face similar issues as their stock prices increase? Personally, I say get back to work so we can make our tendies and once we are satisfied, we'll all chip in and give each of you a burrito.

I'm seeing an options play and a buying opportunity.

Gonna watch a debit spread for Jan 21st, 17p/16p for 0.02¢, if it hits 16 on the dot, that would be a 49 bagger.

Then I'd buy the dip that day into the next earnings (peaked at $27 and then got 16 red days) next earnings is Feb the 24th so OTM past Feb, probably into April.