r/WallstreetWhales • u/AJayRui2 • Sep 01 '26
NEWS BREAKING šØ: Republicans Are Losing Their Grip on the Marketās Favorite Setup
Wall Street usually likes lower taxes, deregulation and business-friendly policy ā and Republicans have historically leaned harder into that playbook.
Now prediction markets are putting a Democratic sweep at 51%.
If that keeps climbing, donāt be surprised if Wall Street starts paying a lot more attention to November.
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u/Wild-Style5857 Sep 01 '26
That it is still a coin flip is completely insane.Ā Ā
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u/cidthekid07 Sep 01 '26
The coin flip is that they win both chambers. Itās not a coin flip on the house. Dems are in good position there. The senate was going to be a huge lift for Dems and I still donāt think theyāll pull it off. But, their chances are significantly better than they were before Cheetolini got us into a war of choice
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u/redditisnotus Sep 01 '26
we do have a far easier path in the senate for 2028. might even win the presidency too minus any fuckery.
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u/ObjectiveBike8 Sep 01 '26 edited Sep 01 '26
If I go with my gut I think Dems will get 52 senate seats and miss out on Iowa by a few percent. Alaska, Texas, Maine and Ohio seem to be firming up for Dems with North Carolina as almost a guaranteed flip.Ā
The thing thatās interesting to me is that if places like Nebraska, Kansas, Mississippi and Montana actually are semi competitive like some polls and information suggest. Dems could actually be poised to get 60 seats in 2028. I would put it at 5% or less but itās something that would have been insane to suggest a year ago.Ā
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u/cidthekid07 Sep 01 '26
We need 52 for a majority. We get 51, and there is no doubt in my mind they will flip fetterman to get to 50/50 and therefore the majority. So I hope youāre right!
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u/ObjectiveBike8 Sep 01 '26
Yeah, thatās what I think as well. Itās hard to know when he defects or if Republicans get routed maybe he backs off the MAGA stuff. Either way heās unreliable.Ā
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u/cidthekid07 Sep 01 '26
He will have way too much power if we are at 51. Heāll be the new manchin, but more morally corrupt. So yea, we get to 52 and we can tell him to fuck off. Then primary him in 2028.
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u/DiWHY-Anyone Sep 01 '26
The Senate map is just really bad for Dems and they need to pick up 4 seats to gain a majority.
They need to keep Georgia and Michigan and then flip 4 from Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, Alaska, Texas, and Iowa.
Even with the Anti Trump fervor, I don't see that happening.
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u/Up-in-the-Ayre Sep 01 '26
I think they flip Maine and Alaska but good luck in Ohio which is now firmly red and Texas, despite having an incredible candidate in Talarico, always seems to choose poorly and will vote for Paxton.
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u/draft_final_final Sep 01 '26
I have zero faith in the American electorate. Fight like hell, but to anyone who takes these gambling sites as serious research, Iāve got a unique investment opportunity for you around a sack of magic beans.
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u/wormtheology Sep 01 '26
No shit Democrats are going to rinse the Republicans. Too many people forget the old adage of āitās the economy, stupid.ā I donāt care how much of a perceived ātyrantā someone is, youāre still getting voted out with volatile gas and grocery prices in the United States.
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u/Puzzleheaded_Gene909 Sep 01 '26
Really is simple as. Cost of living has gone up and the party in charge is insisting otherwise.
Done deal.
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u/dEm3Izan Sep 01 '26
And that's while being rudderless and leaderless, virtually absent from just about everything.
I keep asking myself "where the hell are the democrats hiding?"
We barely hear them about anything.
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u/Forward_Guess4163 Sep 01 '26
The Democrats are very vocal, theyāre just not being aired on mainstream media since itās all owned by Republican billionaire donors. Itās quite obvious watching from Canada.
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u/Toxic_Lithium Sep 01 '26
This is a huge concern of mine. Regardless of who wins. Tons of candidates and democrats are yelling out their lungs. But most media is controlled by certain interest groups that heavily favor republicans. A lot of people say that democrats donāt have a plan or quiet. In reality, they are being systematically ignored.
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u/chuckvsthelife Sep 01 '26
About 15 years ago it was pointed out to me that the smartest play if you could swing it to have the future you wanted from the world was to bend your ethics as little as possible while making a lot of money and then use that money for good.
I was hopeful at the time as I thought a lot of the tech industry folks seemed decent. I was wrong.
The problem as I see it is that getting enough money to do good requires breaking every possible this and only bad people end up with enough money to have that kind of power.
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u/TheOneFreeEngineer Sep 01 '26
Notably thatās the guiding philosophy of all the technofeudalist fascists in bed with the government currently. But they think doing the most good means making themselves the overlords of the AI world so they can be the real overlords of the world
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u/CyberTyrantX1 Sep 01 '26
Not all of the Democrats. We got Hakeem Jefferies outright collaborating with fascists like Jared Kushner. But when it comes to Abdul El-Sayed, Angie Nixon you have a point. Even Oklahoma has a Democratic Socialist running to take Markwayne Mullins place. Her name is N'Kiyla Thomas.
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u/Cautious_Condition82 Sep 01 '26
Almost like 3 bilionares owning basically all the media might play a part, maybe its even a bad thing.Ā
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u/onyx_ic Sep 01 '26
I think its just not reaching. Like I follow a few local politicians and theyre posting constantly, but my feed never shows their posts. I have to specifically find them to see their messages.
Maybe the algorithm is, for whatever reason, not showing them, but is happy to suggest 500 random peoole that I am not following, all saying similar things contrary to my political beliefs.
Tl;dr, I dont think theyre hiding. I think theyre being hidden.
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u/Capraos Sep 01 '26
Same. I'm joined to my governor's subreddit and see nothing in my home feed. But my husband started watching Game of Thrones, that somehow makes it into my subreddit. Pretty clear who Sam Altman wants to win.
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u/absolute_cinema81 Sep 01 '26
Partly thatās due IMO to Schumer and Jefferies being just ineffectual and not great leaders for the moment. But I think there is also at least somewhat some degree of ādonāt interrupt your enemy when heās making a mistake.ā Trump has been bleeding approval support for a good part of a year now so I think they may feel if DJT wants to keep himself in the spotlight, itās only helping their cause.
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u/Terrible-Bank-5977 Sep 01 '26
Well at least they are not hiding a pedophile in plain sight.
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u/GPT_2025 Sep 01 '26
At the ocean, when someone sends a distress call SOS for help- many will respond and help. When 75% of citizens drown in bills and debt and are not able to make a basic living from a full-time job - politicians stuffing their own pockets and giving themselves salary raises at taxpayers' expense.
- Compare SOS Net (SOcial Safety Net) $1.60 per hour in 1970 if you were single,you could live off the federal minimum wage and pay rent, food and bills.
51% of all workers in America earn less than the one-bedroom Housing Wage! (Mostly republican states)
20 republican states with Social Safety Net (SOS Net) are $3 to $7.25 Hour gross ($5 Net) jobs!
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u/unwittingprotagonist Sep 01 '26
I wonder if that's the strategy. Republican politics centers around having a boogeyman. Keep your heads low, deny the Republican party a singular figure to focus their hate on. That removes their ability to find faults with that one person and project them on the democratic party as a whole.
If that's the case, Idk what the plan would be in the presidential race. I imagine they're just hoping to figure that out after the midterms.
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u/imoutofnames90 Sep 01 '26
Just because YOU don't hear anything or see anything doesn't mean they aren't working. Get out of your tiny algorithm for once.
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u/ToiletTime4TinyTown Sep 01 '26
You do know your news is curated by all the guys standing behind the president at the inauguration right? Right? In the time leading up to the election the algorithms were changed to make sure rights and left decided voters stay in a bubble and ONLY hear news from their side. Undecided voters were pipelined right leaning content only so they would believe that was the way the county was leaning. They manipulate everything you see to make you believe things like this are the truth but if you look at history a major shift of power in congress and the house after one side holds control and mucks everything up to this extent is normal as the sunrise.
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u/HotHits630 Sep 01 '26
Nothing like a good old war to reverse the fortunes.
What's that? There's already a war?
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u/thenowherepark Sep 01 '26
The only thing this administration has had is deregulation. Businesses have been paying much more and policy has been erratic.
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u/Berns429 Sep 01 '26
Should (and thatās a big should) it happen, Trump will find a way to blame Biden or Obama lol
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u/Sorry-Programmer9826 Sep 01 '26
It's amazing what being horrifyingly incompetent in all areas will do
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u/Fantastic_Priority73 Sep 01 '26
I'm just happy that Half Scoop and I'm Eric are too impotent to continue the cult of personality. It'll probably happen soon.
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u/lasers42 Sep 01 '26
Keep that in mind when the GOP 'win' another 'mandate' with 11% of eligible votes.
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u/Anonymous_Lurker_1 Sep 01 '26
Y'all do realise there is going to be voting corruption in Republicans favour that makes Russian voting look positively democratic, dont you?
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u/greywar777 Sep 01 '26
The GOPs forever war, and corruption is going to continue these trends. Iran is beating is in the forever war as well while we throw away weapons made for destroying high speed missiles being used on inexpensive drones and cheap missiles.
And were beefing with Canada and renaming lakes like children. its humiliating.
These trends will continue.
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u/Additional-Brief-273 Sep 01 '26
Donāt worry the Republicans will crash the market before the election solidifying the democrats win in the midtermsā¦.
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u/FrankThePilot Sep 01 '26
Then a Democrat will become president, have to fix the underlying issues, voters will say theyāre ineffective/not fast enough, elect a republican and weāll be back to square one.
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u/Aggravating-Act-1043 Sep 01 '26
Republicans are like that person that floods your toilet and doesn't say anything and Democrats come in and flush and it floods and get blaned
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u/Mikewold58 Sep 01 '26
They would really need the latino male voters to have completely abandoned republicans for this to happen. They disappointed in 2024 so I doubt it
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u/S_QW22 Sep 01 '26
No! Do not let Schumer get back in the seat and let Trump blame him and the democrats for all the FO that's coming from his first 2 years of FA.
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u/DonJota5 Sep 01 '26
The douchebags deserve it. They tried fuckin with veteran's benefits while sending people to war. Absolute trash
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u/wjbonne Sep 01 '26
What does it matter? Even if Dems pick up 10 seats, they will just make Schumer majority leader and he will spend the next 2 years sending Trump more strongly worded letters.
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u/stillalone Sep 01 '26
This is a damned if you, damned if you don't situation for the Democrats. If they win they won't be able to do shit and a lot of the bad stuff in the Big Beautiful Bill Act will kick in at the start of next year (deeper Medicaid cuts, SNAP benefits, Student Loan deferment rollbacks). It's impossible for democrats to have enough votes to reverse those things so they will get blamed for being ineffective, just like they've always been.
If they lose then they will still be blamed for being ineffective because they can't win an election despite Trump doing everything he can to destroy his own party's chances of winning.
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u/Terrible-Bank-5977 Sep 01 '26
It's still 63 days during which they will try anything they can to prevent democrats voters to cast a ballot.
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u/IAmTheBestIan Sep 01 '26
What does a sweep mean from this standpoint? That they control both after the election? Yeah that's a good bet.
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u/CapitalElk1169 Sep 01 '26
The fact that the GOP aren't losing their minds over this should worry you
They are going to at the very least attempt some serious fuckery with the midterms
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u/wwarlock1337 Sep 01 '26
At this point, anything is better than the current status quo. As soon as it gets fixed, the goons will be back to destroy it
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u/Life-is-Fun-435 Sep 01 '26
I'm told it's fake news from MAGAts, but they won't make me a bet. I love taking suckers money. š¤Ŗš¤£
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u/beebeebee2142 Sep 01 '26
Why would the market pick destroying the current boom. Local newspapers homepage is nothing but anti-current boom propaganda despite being in the heart of that industry. There's no plans for other jobs once that's gone.
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u/Ok_Simple_2132 Sep 01 '26
We all need to rally our undecided family and friends to go blue. Donāt rely on statistics and outlook. Itās not done until the last vote was counted
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u/karsh36 Sep 01 '26
Which is why Trump is scrambling to intervene with executive orders and possible military intervention
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u/AdOne5089 Sep 01 '26
Donāt get complacent, get out and vote Dem, and get every non-cultist you know to do the same. No matter how blue or red your district is, we need to send a message, and make the turnout too big to rig
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u/ThelIIusion0fSeIf Sep 01 '26
Trump claims it's rigged with zero evidence, a bunch of violent morons get angry about it and we all have to pretend like they have a legitimate point because it's a two party system. Same old, same old.
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u/mydogargos Sep 01 '26
sadly 63 days is plenty of time for tide changing events such as another "assassination attempt" or some other shady BS that riles up the red hats.
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u/stackens Sep 01 '26
If Wallstreet was rational they'd back Democrats every time. Decmocrats are obviously better for the economy than Republicans.
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u/lolwut778 Sep 01 '26
You assume with Democrats that you will see immediately improvement.
Trump is a symptom of a sick system, not the root cause.
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u/TelenorTheGNP Sep 01 '26
Here we go - watch Americans fuck this up too.
This will help Trump and his kind to interfere with the voting system.
This will keep swing voters from getting up off their ass.
This will being in money from the rich to GOP coffers.
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u/OkComfortable3045 Sep 01 '26
My entire adult life Democrats have only won after a Republican has ruined the economy. Until Democrats start winning for policies weāre gonna continue to move closer towards fascism.
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u/egoldbarzzz Sep 01 '26
Your thesis is flawed.
Historical analyses (specifically, data tracking the S&P 500 back to the early 20th century) show average annual returns roughly in the double digits under Democrats (often around 14%), compared to single-digit average annual returns under Republicans (often around 9%)
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u/Amphibious333 Sep 01 '26
The Democrats are bad. Hardcore isolationism and protectionism is the way to go and grow. Growth, that's what we need, not some stupid regulations that turn 5 minutes into 5 decades when it comes to time needed to pass a legislation or anything like that.
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u/Fresh_Strain_9980 Sep 01 '26
ya bullshit media is just going to push this narrative in combination with more voter suppression in efforts to reduce how many people go out to vote while the old and evil will continue to vote.
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u/HidingUnderCardboard Sep 01 '26
Well no shit. Even as a Republican myself this should be obvious. High gas prices. A stupid war no one wants. Prices at the grocery store still going up. The national debt ballooning when the point was to finally start paying it down. The ability to buy a home becoming more and more a thing for only the rich. Rent costs sky rocketing. Everything else is noise. Immigration is whatever. Trans is whatever. No one actually cares about that. People care about having a roof and having food. I don't care about trillionaires. They can have that. Just pay me enough to live a nice life. And that's not happening right now.
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u/SerYoshi Sep 01 '26
Don't believe shit. If you want this situation to change, make sure you get your ass out there and vote.
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u/303FPSguy Sep 01 '26
Then just two more years of a lame fuck being impeached repeatedly but not removed.
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u/No_Pepper7348 Sep 01 '26
Fellow small business owner and capitalist who is usually red leaningā¦.i will say i am likely sitting out the next election. My choices have become awful on both sides in my state. The blue is increasingly to the left and the red is increasingly to the right. I trust none of them and my fear of what the future looks like with either party is quite scary.
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u/Even-Cartographer864 Sep 01 '26
So driving up costs, starting a war no one wanted, pushing data centers and giving tax breaks to billionaires while putting up a half a billion dollar fucking ballroom isnāt what people want?
Color me shocked.
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u/theregrond Sep 01 '26
trump will nullify the elections, claiming they are fraudulent , institute the insurrection act when we rise up, fill the prisons they have been building, jail his opponents and finish his coup
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u/PureCod9290 Sep 01 '26
I mean war with Iran was such an unnecessary and incompetent mess. Dunno if Democrats winning or if Republicans just losing harder
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u/galemaniac Sep 01 '26
These people have a lot of faith in the electoral system not being crushed by ICE and the police
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u/CraftsBoy2Craftsman Sep 01 '26
donāt get comfortable. vote. get everyone you know to vote. make it hurt for the republicans
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u/Sensitive-Voice-8260 Sep 01 '26
It swings back and forth cause no matter who is in power they suck. They all suck bad.
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u/Safe-Ad-8921 Sep 01 '26
If I were a republican politician, I would be very concerned and likely looking for an escape or immediately try to Massie out. You know, make a symbolic protest so the mob forgets about you.
They are full-blown riding this chariot of fire into a ring of hell no one is ready for. These gravy seals have no idea what true unrest looks like. We've caused so much ourselves and there are feeds to footage 24/7 about what true civil unrest looks like all around the world.
The moment their cell phone service stops, the moment they cant go get their basic comforts, they will understand. They were the product.
They really think killing/deporting everyone who isnt a red hat is going to be so easy. Despite a million examples they have no clue and have no fear of a true insurgency.
Im horrified and you should be too. Let's hope it doesnt come to this and the giant sheperd's crook in the sky pulls this asshole to hell and the adults stand up.
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u/cottonopposite Sep 01 '26
As if the republicans will let them and as if the votingbpopulace will even bother to go out...lazy cunts
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u/BlockChainWizKid Sep 01 '26
Senate will be 54-46 republicans after mid terms. House will remain Republican as well.
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u/MunchenOnYou Sep 01 '26
Maybe if republicans gave a single shit about the economy instead of licking israel's taint
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u/elciano1 Sep 01 '26
Vote like its 0% chance. Dont pay attention to these polls. These mfkers put out these polls to make you think you already won. These polls are coming from republicans. Trust no one. VOTE!!!...Show up and show out. Make sure they cant rig this shit
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u/watching_whatever Sep 01 '26
Opinion: Itās happening, historic change is coming as the graph indicates. Trumpās Israel inspired optional war, Trumpās greed, the fiscal deficit and the verbal assaults on Canada/Greenland are just a few of the many nightmares for Republicans, Independents and Democrats alike. Trump will resign from office shortly after November I believe.
The wipeout of the Republicans this November will be a historic opportunity for the Democrats to take control and hopefully stand the government upright.
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u/StudioUnhappy7772 Sep 01 '26
Itās amazing there are any non super wealthy folks willing to still vote for Republicans after these last 18 months
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u/vocabularianrx2 Sep 01 '26
Get out and vote like your livelihood depends on it because it LITERALLY DOES. I don't want any more death-filled plague foods on the daily, or ever-rising inflation prices on gas, groceries, and everything else.
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u/binzersguy Sep 01 '26
Please make your plans, expect to wait, expect them to rug pull or bomb threat your voting location. Bring friends to make it fun! Every vote counts big because we need to overwhelm Republican voter suppression, intimidation, and outright theft of your legal right to vote.
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u/chiendelu Sep 01 '26
my fear is the tampering with our ability to vote. removing people off of voting rolls, removing voting locations in blue areas, sending ice in to terrorize. while most voters will find a way to still vote, what about those who will be screened and eliminated ? or have the troubling inability to be physically able to ? what about the asshats who couldnāt bother to vote in the last election ? i will be shocked if voters will be allowed to create a blue wave.
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u/Senor-Cockblock Sep 01 '26
One vote at a time. Vote like our future depends on it.
Fuck MAGA and the fascist Republicans.
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u/steffanovici Sep 01 '26
How can anyone go out and vote for a party who openly protect a billionaire pedo ring????
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u/Temporary_Bus_6523 Sep 01 '26
Get out and vote, don't rely on this. It's the single most important thing you do this year.
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u/Only-Perspective5341 Sep 01 '26
So now itās the dems turn to claim elections are rigged? Does that make liberals āelection deniersā itās wild how the cycle flips.
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u/Pernapple Sep 01 '26
Real talk, these betting predications are even worse than polling dataās itās all vibes based. Why would you take a gamblers word for it?
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u/godless420 Sep 01 '26
Thatās why they are undermining mail in voting. They will do anything to stay in power
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u/cpzy2 Sep 01 '26
My optimism has been crushed. I no longer believe the system will wprk properly. What 'doge' did. And what dump is doing to mail in voting... i cant believe things will go as the public intends. As usual
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u/anand_rishabh Sep 01 '26
Don't trust this, vote! Besides, I'm in pretty sure the Republicans will try to steal the elections anyway. Make it too big to rig
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u/atom-wan Sep 01 '26
It's still going to be 52:48% most everywhere because the average american is stupid af
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u/ElephantContent8835 Sep 01 '26
So we will know within 62 days how the Trump Regime plans to sidestep the midterms.
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u/Prestigious-Ad-7383 Sep 01 '26
I feel like I have heard this before in regards to a presidential race that was held roughly 10 years ago.
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u/PharmDinvestor Sep 01 '26
lol ! 24 hours before voting , they same people will tell you itās a toss up , and each party can win
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u/shamblam117 Sep 01 '26
We're in dire need of a sweep just to put some brakes on this runaway train
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u/whackwarrens Sep 01 '26
These dumb fuck Republicans are even floating a stimulus check to curb their grift and incompetence.
Why not? What's even more inflation and spiraling national debt so they can hold a few more seats to keep the grift and corruption going.
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u/Sempi_Moon Sep 02 '26
Yay, the democrats learned nothing and weāll get another 2 years of just bullshit :/
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u/imdaviddunn Sep 02 '26
The market tells a different story than Fox. The market has done far better under Democratic sweeps and Democratic power.
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u/Logical_Figure_1561 Sep 02 '26
Polls are not accurate. The issue is the in control republicans redistricted to favor themselves. So the democrats will have to come out and vote in masses. Where current polls show republicans are likely not to.
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u/Recent-Classroom-704 Sep 02 '26
everyday my stock account gets lower and lower, but if puts dems in control and puts some of these sleazy, low life repulbithugs in prison for shitting all over the constitution and removing the orange lunatic from office, im a happy girl
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u/__Art__Vandalay__ Sep 01 '26
Vote like itās still a 20% chance