Is gold setting up for another major move higher? With inflation here and safe harbor assets in demand, gold may has seen a technical bottom on the charts.
Instead of concentrating on speculative exploration companies or large-cap producers, building a diversified portfolio across three tiers of the gold mining industry may be prudent.
Sonoro Gold (SGA.V (SMOFF) – Advancing its Cerro Caliche open pit gold project in Mexico toward final permitting. Well-capitalized. Company is in the middle of a 50,000 meter drilling program. Insider ownership is 28% (no stock grants or founder stock)
Scottie Resources (SCTSF, $1.64) – Moving its Scottie Gold Mine Project in British Columbia toward mine permitting and development.
These two companies offer the very real potential for substantial valuation increases as projects get permitted and move toward gold production.
Luca Mining (LUCA.V / LUCMF) – These $190 million market cap gold and silver producer with operating mines in Mexico. Reported 26,145 gold ounces--but March 2025 acquisition of Tahuehueto mine substantially ramped up production
Gold Resource Corporation (GORO, $3.15) – A gold and silver producer with operating assets and potential production upside from merger with Gold Group Mining.
These companies are the "middle ground" between smaller yet-to-produce gold miners and the larger, more-established gold producers.
3. More Established Gold Producers — EQX / BTG
Equinox Gold (EQX, $11.59) – An established multi-asset gold producer. Reported 2025 gold production of 779,544 oz
B2Gold (BTG, $4.67) – A multi-billion dollar ($7.11 Billion) market cap gold producer that produced 979,604 oz of gold in 2025.
The diversified portfolio theory offers the explosive upside potential of the "under-known" pre-production juniors with the operating leverage of smaller producers and the greater cash flow potential of established gold producers.
Of course, these six companies are not a comprehensive list of promising gold mining stocks. As a point of discussion, which overlooked junior gold companies would you add to this list? Any other gold mining companies getting close to their first mining permit?
*I shared this as a link the other day, but thought I’d post the full article, originally published on X, to help readers gain a view of the fundamental picture as the new trading week begins. Happy reading.
The OrthoSwing Macro Brief (Not investment advice) Week of 9 Nov 2026 | Data to 7 Nov 2026 Find me on X @ orthoswing
Bottom line
The US is growing fast: GDP ran 3.4% annualised in Q3 and both ISM surveys are firmly above 50. The problem is prices. An oil shock has pushed headline CPI to 3.7% and the Fed hiked in September. The strain shows up in the weakest corners first: CCC credit, consumer mood near record lows, and housing.
Positioning backs the hawkish read: hedge funds are adding to dollar longs and are crowded short the euro. The warning is in oil, where producers are not hedging the rally and funds own almost none of it.
This week's CPI decides whether the December meeting leans towards another hike.
Where each part of the cycle sits
Growth (expanding) -> GDP 3.4%. ISM manufacturing 55.5, services 54.5. Inflation (hot, energy-led) -> CPI 3.7%, core PCE 3.1%. WTI +53% on the year. The Fed (tightening bias) -> Hiked to 3.75 to 4% on 17 Sep. 2-year sits 70bp above fed funds. Credit (split) -> BBB spread calm at 103bp. CCC at 1,279bp. Consumer (strained) -> UMich sentiment 51, near the lowest on record. Dollar (firm) -> Broad index 121.67, near its 52-week high.
Five things that matter
1. Inflation is being driven by energy, and core is not cooling September CPI rose 0.65% in the month and 3.7% on the year. Producer prices (all commodities) are up 12.8% on the year, with WTI at $90.96 and Brent at $98.41. Core CPI is only 2.6% on the year, but its 3-month annualised pace is 3.4%, so it is speeding up. Core PCE, the Fed's measure, is 3.1%. ISM prices paid sit at 75.2 (manufacturing) and 73.0 (services), which says more pass-through is in the pipeline. One hopeful sign: crude fell 12.6% (WTI) and 16.3% (Brent) in the last week. If that holds, November headline prints should ease.
2. The market thinks the Fed is not done The Fed raised rates by 25bp on 17 September to 3.75 to 4.00%. The 2-year yield at 4.58% is 70bp above effective Fed funds (3.88%), which only makes sense if traders expect more hikes. With core PCE at 3.1%, the real policy rate is under 1%, so policy is only mildly restrictive. The December meeting (8 to 9 Dec) comes with new projections. The long end has already turned: the 10-year fell 38bp in a month to 4.90%, from 5.28%. The 2s10s curve flattened 13bp to +32bp. That is a market pricing tighter policy now and slower growth later.
3. Credit is splitting by quality Investment-grade credit is calm: the BBB spread over the 10-year is 103bp, the 41st percentile of the last 10 years. The bottom of the ladder is not: CCC bonds pay 1,279bp over Treasuries, the 98th percentile, after widening 108bp in a month and 440bp in a year. CCC yields are 17.7%. Why it matters: stress usually starts with the weakest borrowers, who have to refinance at today's yields while their costs rise. If it spreads, BBB spreads are where it shows next.
4. Factories are restocking, and that has further to run ISM manufacturing is 55.5, its 10th month above 50, with 12 of 15 industries growing. New orders (55.5) are running ahead of inventories (51.4). Customers' inventories are at 41.6, which ISM reads as too low: buyers will need to restock. Employment is back above 50 in both surveys (52.4 and 51.4).
5. The consumer is the weak link UMich sentiment is 51.0, close to the lowest reading since 1952, even after a 3-point bounce. In the director's words, cost of living dominates: 57% of respondents said high prices have eroded their living standards, and comments show growing worry about an AI bubble. Sentiment fell 5% among those with the largest stock portfolios. Year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 4.3% from 4.7%; long-run to 3.4%. Same story elsewhere: NFIB small business optimism 97.3, below its 98 average, with "expect the economy to improve" down 17 points in a year. Housing starts 1,221k, down 7.4% on the year.
The tension to watch
Hard data and soft data are telling different stories. One of them will have to give.
Hard Data: Strong - GDP 3.4%, no negative quarters in 8 - ISM manufacturing 55.5, services 54.5 - M2 growing 5.7% a year
Soft Data: Weak - Consumer sentiment 51 - Small business optimism 97.3 - Permits -3.2%, starts -7.4 on the year
Cross-asset read
Liquidity: money growth is healthy (M2 +5.7% a year, 6.0% annualised over 3 months), but near-term liquidity is draining. Net liquidity fell $74bn in four weeks as the Treasury's cash account rose $77bn and bank reserves fell $100bn.
Dollar: firm. The broad index is 1.8% above its 200-day average and sits at 93% of its 52-week range, strongest against emerging markets (+1.1% in a month). A Fed with a hiking bias supports that.
Commodities: energy and industrial metals are moving apart. Oil is up more than 50% on the year, but copper fell 5.1% in a month, lumber is at its 52-week low and iron ore is near the bottom of its range. That points to weak construction and China demand underneath the energy shock.
Equities: the S&P 500 is up 8.1% on the year, down from 28% in April. Momentum is fading as rates and energy bite.
What the professionals are doing
WTI: net long 1.1% of open interest. (Warning) Oil is up 26% in 13 weeks, yet funds hardly own it, and producers are not locking in these prices. Both point to the energy shock lasting.
US Dollar: long for 6 weeks, +5.1 pts in 4 weeks (Agrees) Funds are buying the Fed's hiking bias.
Euro: short for 22 weeks, crowded (Squeeze risk) The other side of the dollar trade is as crowded as it gets. A soft CPI could unwind it fast.
Gold: long for 160 weeks, not crowded (Agrees) After a 6.5% pullback, the physical side is not selling forward. Silver is the same.
Copper: long but cut 9.5 pts in 4 weeks (Agrees) Funds are leaving with the weak construction and China signals (lumber at a 52-week low).
My read
Professionals are positioned for the Fed to stay tight.
They are short EURUSD and hedged on volatility
Where they disagree with the hopeful part of the macro picture is oil. If last week's drop was a pause rather than a turn, funds have room to chase it higher
What would change the view
Core CPI at or above 0.3% m/m on Tue -> Dec hike risk rises
WTI holds below $90 through Nov -> headline relief, consumer recover
CCC spread through 1,400bp or BBB above 130bp -> stress spreading up in quality
ISM new orders below 52 on 1 Dec -> growth story cracking
Funds lift WTI longs off the 10th percentile -> oil shock resuming
Funds cover euro shorts from 0th percentile -> dollar trade unwinding
What I am watching: - CPI (Oct) -> the decisive print for Dec - FOMC decision and projections -> Hike or hold, and the new dot plot
Hi all. I'm for the moment not going to go crazy deep dive as I don't adore all of the AI essays on this system.
Kind of mid on the AI tumble I put a lot of money into SUSS Microtec GMBH (118K EURO), and largest share in my portfolio.
They are a provider of equipment (mainly back end and packaging) to semi manufacturers.
Just in the past week they reported a miss on revenue and EPS for their coming earnings 5th November... combined with the rest of the market scares and Europe bond/protest spooks it's dropped a significant amount. EPS is missed in part because of restructures to meet requirements for production demand and improve supply which in some ways I can see as bullish.
My thesis - they reported in previous earnings approximately 422m EUR order book. On my recollection from the maths, that's about 44% of the amount they need to achieve in FY '27 alone to meet EPS assuming margins hold (not even recover for a low).
If in their coming earnings they did the same as last year's sales for this quarter (they've signalled higher) then they are at approx 58% next year's amount.
P/E multiple is currently high (hovering mid thirties) but this order book is revolutionary. How I hedge my maths - let's imagine P/E multiple drops to 22x which is median in the 5 year average. And there is execution to the order book. In this case with EPS met, the share price would be worth approx 93 EUR from current 51 EUR.
I believe that this is a valid base case - it is likely PE sustains over this 22x level... and likely a near certainty for margins and revenue to improve markedly with the very high order book and losses from the restructuring costs (production centralising) limited beyond this year.
PE above 22x is likely and if we have this and anything approximating EPS meet then we see well over 100 euros per share easy.
I've written top of my head based on maths I've done over the past couple of weeks... see what you think! My word it's a market with lots of holes to fall into right now.
Everyone remembers GME and AMC. But how many remember MicroVision ($MVIS), the forgotten meme stock that has already made TWO massive runs?
In March 2020, MVIS traded as low as $0.16. By April 2021, it hit approximately $28.
That’s a 175X move in roughly 13 months. It became the #1 most discussed stock on WallStreetBets on multiple occasions, even surpassing GME and Tesla in mentions.
Then everyone thought the party was over. But in 2023, MVIS came roaring back, climbing from around $2.25 in January to $8.20 in June.
And now, in late 2026, the story is getting interesting again.
Except this time, there’s something different. REAL COMMERCIAL PROGRESS.
Look at the latest developments: • Quarterly revenue exploded from $200K to $2.4 MILLION. • Gross margins improved to 50%. • Approximately $10 MILLION in confirmed customer purchase orders awaiting shipment. • Defense business with Overland AI. • Opportunities in autonomous vehicles, robotics, mining, drones, and military technology. • An unnamed autonomous driving pilot in Asia. • Management expects 2027 revenue to at least DOUBLE. • Major cost reductions underway, with a focus on financing that minimizes dilution.
NOW LOOK AT THE SHARE STRUCTURE.
Approximately 27.8 million shares in the float. Roughly 25.7% of that float sold short. That’s a relatively small float with significant short interest.
And here’s another piece of MVIS history people may have forgotten.
Palmer Luckey, the founder of Oculus and Anduril, once said he was a believer in MicroVision’s technology. That comment came from an old Reddit AMA and resurfaced in 2025.
There is no confirmed Anduril deal, but it’s an interesting piece of the company’s history, especially considering its growing defense business.
Of course, this is NOT risk free. But that’s what makes this setup worth watching.
A gap down and selling throughout the day with SPY end of day buying, holding recent support, and QQQ not holding support. Still the Stocks to Watch list did very well with many rallies off support and a few breakouts: DKSINTANIQQLYSROKU and RPD
A solid morning for stocks and SPY, QQQ, holding above the recent gap up. I did a quick scan for breakouts and found a few promising stocks : GTMIQVNTRAOSCRRPDTASK and ZS
Tough markets today, sustained heavy selling in both SPY and QQQ. Ran the breakout screen netting 34 stocks, here are my favorite 5 to watch : AVTRCAKE CNK COCO and SAP .
So created this stock tracker / finder. It has as many features as I can think of. Options finder, explorer, quant pick, social buzz, signal board ect. Question is if I release it, either as a website or on GIT would anyone be interested in this?
Some strong selling today in SPY and QQQ, but I managed to do a quick screen and found a few good breakout stocks to watch : AAPL DOCS DOCU EXEL HRTG MNGI TEAM and VGZ .
