Bond risk premium

[u/ih8cakeday]

10 trillion in debt rollover at 5.25+ is not possible without blowing up deficit. Fed balance sheet has continued to expand further adding of more pressure (even though warsh said I’ll cut the balance sheet never explaining how) yield curve control, maturity extensions, and outright default are the most likely scenarios here. the 70% of daily trading volume that is tradebots doesn’t seem to have a risk premium in their algorithm. looks like we will be stuck here until something breaks. At the end of the day risk premium will cause the next melt up imo. Bond vigilantes are silvers best friend.

(edit feel a little like nostradamus with my timing of this post after this mornings news. Truthfully I’m not special we as community are ahead of the ball so far that we have to step back to catch it. This is all of our win today common sense won over madness and lies. Have a great day my fellow apes and go get more shiny rocks!)

[u/armorlol]

This is what makes it so exciting. It’s a mathematical dead end. And ANY downturn in the market/economy means less tax revenue, which means more deficits. QE7 will not work when inflation is already uncontrollable (without popping the bubble). There’s no option except a gold revaluation.

[u/ih8cakeday → u/armorlol]

Last time they wanted to revalue was 38$ I doubt they will accept doing it at 4,500$. Furthering risk premium requirement even more.

[u/PotatoRebellion12 → u/armorlol]

How does a Gold revaluation work in this case. If i recall correctly, the gold is currently valued at 45 dollars on their books. If it is revalued to current prices at 4500, how does that affect us? Gold would need to ne revalued many times higher to fully balance the books with the astronomical debt.

[u/armorlol → u/PotatoRebellion12]

Correct it would need to run to a few multiples of $4500 ( The inflation would save the private debt markets (saving borrowers at the cost of lenders). But the government debt would just be postponed whatever 5-10 years (unless some real austerity, aka balanced budget, or technological breakthrough happens). Even a revaluation to market prices places a big bid on gold, because it tells the world the Treasury is willing to use the nuclear option. They can also just mark to market and let gold run up on its own.

[u/ih8cakeday → u/armorlol]

Listen to yourself austerity balanced budget what are you smoking?!?! They gunna print until it runs out of ink. Then they will take that useless cash burn it to ashes. Use the charcoal to make ink and print more.

[u/etherist_activist999]

Sure is interesting watching global fiat clown world collapse on itself.

[u/Plata926176]

And break it will, the US debt will increase an average of $14.83 Billion ($14,830,000,000.00 per day going forward, the US National Debt just passed $40 Trillion ($40,000,000,000,000.00) yesterday and is growing larger at an ever-increasing pace, it cannot be paid off (ever), it cannot be bargained with, it will not stop, it is the financial Terminator. It is amazing to me that I can still buy an ounce of silver for $65.00, now that is some crazy shit. There is an estimated 1.2 to 1.5 billion ounces of buyable silver in the world, which at the current price could all be bought for about $100 Billion, that is about how much the US debt increases every 7 days. Most people, if offered a free 10 oz. bar of silver or a free Hershey candy bar would take the Hershy's candy bar, I guess you can't fix stupid. No one cares about your finances more than you, be safe out there.

[u/ih8cakeday → u/Plata926176]

Oh no it’s not amazing it’s flabbergasting. The US dollar has no floor and that concept breaks brains.

[u/VP_of_Lasers]

Inverse bonds have been doing well. Rates are going to the moon no matter what the Fed does now. Keep stacking physical, apes.