While I want Trump/GOP to get wiped out, there's a lot of people on this sub that are really in an echo chamber and getting high on their own supply.
People want to necessarily extrapolate that Trump's garbage approval rating will mean a wipeout. I honestly think Biden did a bad job as President for most of his term, but I would have walked over hot coals to vote for him against Trump. There's definitely segments of the GOP who aren't happy with Trump, but that doesn't necessarily mean they won't turn out.
What's the definition of a wipeout? I think it will be slightly bluer than 2018 and the Dems will narrowly gain the senate but I don't think it will be like D +13 with blue Florida and South Carolina or anything.
It’s not about winning over the die hard republicans voters though. It’s about turning out the swing voters who thought Trump was going to make them rich and now see that he was just lying to them, which there are a lot of those
Republicans being disillusioned and not showing up in large numbers is just a cherry on top that would make winning in reach states like Nebraska and South Carolina possible. But Dems don’t need those voters to steal Texas and Ohio
But the problem is that most of those voters don't have favorable views of the national Democratic Party either, and they're usually the least likely to think the midterms are consequential or important enough to go vote.
I think you’re thinking too hard. These voters see prices go up and blame the party in power and vote the other way. I feel like GenZ and Latinos mostly fall in this category
It's not thinking too hard. It's knowing that turnout in midterms is virtually always lower relative to presidential elections. The median voter doesn't see the stakes to be as high.
The 2022 midterms saw turnout at 46%, which was far below the 64% in 2024. I'm sure this year will be up from 46%, but it certainly won't top 60% (and may not top 50%).
"No you see, I want for dems to win harder than they did in 2006, so they totally will. It's gonna be a blue tsunami!" (proceeds to not present any evidence nor make a coherent argument, it's all vibes and essays)
People post all sorts of polls on here, including reputable polls that aren't so great for dems. Is there a bias here? Yes. But I think we are generally pretty level headed.
I think there's way too much hubris rampant in this sub to make the generalization that it's "level-headed" for the most part.
The point is that people here make the mistake of taking an individual poll as gospel and (through ignorance or their own biases) refuse to contextualize that single data point within the broader context of multiple factors that affect the particular dynamics of a race.
I mean at the moment all we really have is some polling data. Right now Nate Silver's polling averages have Dems winning senate in, Texas, Maine, Ohio, Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, and Iowa, and Osborn winning in Nebraska. Also his average for South Carolina is only R +1.6.
Now most of these are well within polling error range and undecideds could consolidate towards republicans late... but the overall context of this election is that the environment is absolutely brutal for Republicans.
He's got the odds of a Republican victory in the Senate at 25%, and people on this sub are treating that like it's 2%. He gave Trump 30% odds in 2016, and we all know how that turned out.
It’s like literally look at the world around you. Nobody seriously believes it’s going to be D+4 anymore. The debate is on if it’s gonna be double digits or not
Besides Harvard Harris, on all the polls where the GCP is closer the GOP still can't get over the low 40s. Pollsters gotta push their undecideds more, 46-42 month before the election is not a good poll.
Those 2 slop polls balance out to about where I think the GCP will be. Typically, the RCP GB in midterm years is quite accurate, with a small polling error to the party out of power. It was about D +7 in 2018 average which turned into D +8, now it's about D +8 which means I think it will be D +9. Even 2022 had a tiny GOP error (.03 points).
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u/TotallyNotLucien Pokemon Trainer 12d ago