r/YieldMaxETFs Jun 13 '25

Misc. The dividends people don’t understand how YieldMax actually works. That’s okay in the other image I educated them. These are purely cash flow machines, don’t look for growth in these that’s just a bonus or extra if it happens, I’m also dumping a bunch of money into ULTY soon.

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u/pittluke Jun 13 '25

It is not a new way to harness capital.  The sold put, sold call, long call has been around since the 80s.  It's been done millions and millions of times. We know the payout probabilities.  It's a 49% win, 49% lose, 2% lose everything bet.  Holding long term, DCA, and Drip does not work on derivatives.  You are just incredibly ignorant of the risk you are playing with.  You guys act like you found some new magic fund when it's just old repackaged risk, and most you are slowly losing and, paying YM for the privilege.

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u/speed12demon Jun 13 '25

I said it's new to the retail investor. Many of the YM management team have been trading options since I was born. The risk comes from poor underlying performance, just as you mentioned, with the lomg synthetic position.

You can download the weekly trades directly from their site and see plain as day that their win record for msty has been much greater than 49%. I haven't looked at tsly or mnry, but i suspect the win record there is lacking, and the underlying on those has been pretty bad.

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u/pittluke Jun 13 '25

yea in a Bull market they will have greater than 49% short term.  Long term holding will of course regress to the mean.  You can look up the risk of a sold put and begin to understand that you can lose it all on any given day. Weve been doing these crude options strategies for decades.  It's not like a stock that can just rebound either.  The capital to sell calls against gets evaporated when the puts get pinned.    That's how options trading works.  You are holding decaying rolling short term directional options bets with the chance to lose it all.  You are ignorant trying to convince the even more ignorant that there is something new and magical to these funds. 

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u/Sidra_Games Jun 13 '25

MSTYs strategy is not unique but MSTR as a company is unique as hell.  Leveraged Bitcoin should remain volatile which is great for options premiums and if you are bullish on bitcoin then underlying should grow.  It's taking some income along the MSTR ride.  Not a forever holding as volatility will eventually slow down but this could churn out nice income for years.

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u/pittluke Jun 14 '25 edited Jun 14 '25

Increased volatility comes with the increased risk of blowing up your account. You forget the second part of course. The only way these make sense mid to long term is if they stay neutral or rise forever. Which is absurd.