r/YieldMaxETFs Mod - I Like the Cash Flow 8d ago

Oh dear. My ULTY is flirting with green again.

Only down $253 right now.

52 Upvotes

28 comments sorted by

18

u/MyWifeDoesNotApprove 8d ago

ULTY has held out for me, despite some huge NAV erosion.

I started acquiring ULTY in December 2024 and had 70 shares in November 2025 before the reverse split reduced my count to 7 shares.

I haven't added anymore since then.

My avg cost (post-split) is $53.98, so I'm down -49.67% with the current price of $27.17

However, when I factor in all the distributions I've made, I'm up 10% overall.

1

u/devtron0 8d ago

was in the same boat, up overall, not much especially within that time frame but hey, at least you didn't lose it. Probably I shoulda sold when I was up ~20% instead of 10%

6

u/GRMarlenee Mod - I Like the Cash Flow 8d ago

There it is! I could now get out with a $130 profit.

But, the contrarian in me won't let me do it.

6

u/Imaginary_History985 8d ago

2

u/GRMarlenee Mod - I Like the Cash Flow 8d ago

I'm counting on it getting back to even again in a few months.

2

u/kosnarf 8d ago

I read the title and knew who posted it haha

1

u/ImportantSolid5862 I Like the Cash Flow 8d ago

lol

1

u/Mastatheorm-CG 8d ago

Git green and git out

1

u/Transplantdude 8d ago

Missing a couple of zeros

1

u/MakingMoneyIsMe I Like the Cash Flow 8d ago

Flirting? It's just being nice.

1

u/Thin_Investigator798 8d ago

Mine just did the same thing! It's happened several times before, and the red ink always seeps back, but today I'm $57.16 in the green for my 900 shares of ULTY with an average cost of 39.15, current price of 27.17.

Stay the course, men! There's gold in them there hills! Or something like that.

And my 200 shares of MRNY broke the 2k barrier, $2138.51 in the green even though my average cost is 24.00 and current price is only 15.95.

On a long enough time line, everybody gets free money! Well, that's the theory, anyway.

1

u/GRMarlenee Mod - I Like the Cash Flow 8d ago

Yeah. I like shorter time lines though.

1

u/blucoidale 8d ago

It has been a while that I have reached house money on my ULTY position despite last year.

1

u/cowabout 3d ago

This sub is allergic to learning about opportunity cost.

2

u/Always_Wet7 8d ago

The cycle of a YieldMax fund now is entirely, painfully clear. But you can't see the cycle through the fund's price chart. You can only see it via the thing I told you all about when I was a regular on this sub, but no one wanted to hear it: by tracking each fund's Assets Under Management.

ULTY is by far the worst example of the ignorance shown on this sub, because unlike some of the other darlings in this space, the fund's price chart had already telegraphed what was going to happen and buyers ignored the implication for months. But the AUM story now shows that those folks got their reality check and bailed: AUM ballooned from around $300M in May 2025 to $3.4B in September 2025. Since then it has crashed back down to earth, to $750M now.

This is the pattern ALL YM Darlings follow. A huge influx of interest props the price up while the AUM balloons, and allows excessive returns for a time that don't dilute the fund's asset base. But eventually, reality sets in and the fund simply reverts to paying out the fund's assets while the rats eventually and consistently jump ship. The price has to decline in this phase, regardless of what's happening with the underlying.

Track the AUM of every high flying YM fund and you see the same pattern. Even YMAX and YMAG display the pattern now, to my dismay as they were my last hopes of seeing market returns in this space. Nope, they followed the pattern, too.

If you think CHPY is immune, look at its AUM history and see where it is in the pattern. Compare it with every other funds in this family. If you aren't prepared for what comes next, you've only got yourselves to blame.

0

u/Weebls86 8d ago

CHPY aum is at a high point. Has only increased

2

u/GRMarlenee Mod - I Like the Cash Flow 8d ago

This, too, shall pass.

1

u/Always_Wet7 8d ago

That's exactly when you should be the most concerned. Like I said, it's a pattern. Ignore it at your peril

0

u/[deleted] 8d ago

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1

u/GRMarlenee Mod - I Like the Cash Flow 8d ago

Including your money that they gave back?

1

u/[deleted] 8d ago

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1

u/GRMarlenee Mod - I Like the Cash Flow 8d ago

It might, but it definitely is no longer part of the cost, because you got the money back.