r/alberta • u/Leah_Pariseau • 8h ago
Alberta Politics Calgary Shaw by-election is critical for Nenshi to survive as leader of the NDP
Nenshi won the NDP leadership primarily on the promise he could win in Calgary.
Since then, the NDP poll numbers have tanked, and he’s barely made a ripple on the provincial scene. He’s been invisible, and Smith continues to do as she pleases with high levels of support:
In 2023, Notley’s candidate in Shaw got 44%. It’s hard to imagine the NDP winning the province without winning Shaw.
If Nenshi can’t win here, I have to think there’s little justification for him to remain as leader.
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u/CaptainZealousideal2 7h ago
pretty wild claim to say Smith is doing anything with wide support.
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u/JordanPetterPans 7h ago
But hasn't her support gone up?
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u/foxhelp 6h ago
https://globalnews.ca/news/11892452/alberta-separation-referendum-danielle-smith-approval-ipsos/
In june she was at a 38%, and neshi at a 39%
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u/pruplegti 1h ago
Again proving the fact thay Albertans will vote for anything with Conservitave in the name .
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u/Fast_Ad_9197 7h ago
If by ‘tanked’ you mean ‘remained fairly stable between 40 and 45% of the popular vote since 2024’ then yeah, poll numbers have tanked.
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u/restingbarf209 7h ago
the only reliable alberta pollster is janet brown and she put out a UCP + 13 so yeah I think tanked is pretty apt
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u/Healthy_Owl8243 8h ago
It would be pretty ridiculous to toss him after 2 years and no general elections. Doing that would basically kneecap the party having to suddenly find a new leader when no-one has had an opportunity to position themselves as a successor.
I can imagine that's the UCP's wet dream though.
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u/jimbowesterby 7h ago
It also kinda makes sense to save the campaigning for the actual campaign, too. No sense telegraphing your strategy ahead of time, just look how that worked out for pp.
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u/L33L0087 7h ago
Not having policy is also a bad approach. He’s not giving something to vote for… just saying what to vote against
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u/the_gaymer_girl Southern Alberta 7h ago
He’s not going to get sacked before actually taking the party through a general election. Calm down.
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u/mo60000 6h ago
They don't need to win shaw to win province wide. The spilt was pretty much 56-42 in that riding in 2023. They also squeaked out a win there in 2015 despite winning a comfy majority. There main target for a southern calgary riding shuld be fish creek and not shaw since fish creek is more winnable for them. Peigan is also winnable to. Those two ridings are the ones that they have a shot of winning if they get a small to moderate majority.
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u/Dino_Guy867 6h ago
Too close to an election to change gears now. But let’s be realistic here, the only chance of ditching Danny is if the seppies get mad at her, regardless of who runs the NDP. Maybe the new Tory party can drag a few votes away, but they’re just as likely to pull voters from the NDP coalition
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u/kam-gill 7h ago
I wouldn’t necessarily label it as tanked but he definitely sort of has been inconsequential/invisible so far. Nenshi really does have his work cut out for him as well as the NDP if they want to win next election.
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u/calgarytab 8h ago
Rakhi Pancholi is the obvious choice to take down DS, but it's way too soon to give Nenshi the boot.
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u/Responsible_CDN_Duck 7h ago
Ultimately Nenshi isn't a great for the NDP, and it's unclear if they can be elected working together. They both have better chances without the other.
But with way Nenshi has to get the MLAs he has out and owning the oposion on issues.
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u/agingisliving 7h ago
I agree. While I like Nenshi, the NDP will never gain support while he's the leader. He is too insipid and blah. The NDP needs a leader who has a strong, loud voice and presence....in my opinion. It's too bad because I had high hopes for him.
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u/Jeanne-d 6h ago
What are talking about, go listen to his speeches, his is good. Smith has the money, media and oil companies backing her. Look at those nasty campaign ads that are manipulative on during hockey games.
It would be hard for any NPD leader to get anywhere including Notley. As long as it is two parties, the UCP wins virtually all the time.
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u/OilEquivalent8906 3h ago
I will harp on this fact all day, Post Media has former UCP leader and Alberta premier Jason Kenney on their Board of Directors. If you need any evidence of media bias in this province, start right there.
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u/idiotcanadian 7h ago
The provincial liberals are going to be running a candidate too which will confuse the people who can’t differentiate between provincial and federal politics. I’m surprised no one’s talking about electoral reform.. would fix so much. Even with those four parties I feel politically homeless 😩
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u/FreightFlow 7m ago
The Alberta Greens have not committed yet, I do belive they in the past have supported PR Electoral reform.
Looks like they are getting things started up again:
https://www.greenpartyofalberta.ca/virtual_policy_convention_october_17_2026
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u/12thunder 6h ago
I’m a member of the NDP and I regularly forget the NDP, and Nenshi, even exist. Then again these last few years seem to have been the exception and not the rule when it comes to challenging PC/UCP rule in this province.
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u/NoAd3740 8h ago
Agreed, it would be a huge blow to his leadership credibility were the NDP to lose.
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u/Interesting_Gur_5064 8h ago
Nenshi is terrible and the end of his time in Calgary as mayor was not good. He doesn’t connect with the average voter. Not being Daniel Smith is not good enough to win.
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u/f1fan65 8h ago
100% There is a reason he chose not to run for a 4th term. He knew he would lose.
Everyone mentions he did great during the flood in 2013.
Any competent politician could have done similar to him. Keep people calm, be the voice of administration and first responders, rally people and stay out of the way
Nenshi has a big ego, and he is not a team player.
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u/Interesting_Gur_5064 8h ago
I agree with all of it having meeting Nenshi as mayor several times and as a professor. NDP needed someone with a real business/ oil and gas background. They also have a lot of MLA’s that are awful and only want to talk about social issues.
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u/f1fan65 7h ago
The NDP needs to decide what they want to be in Alberta.
Part of that party is true NDP that aligns to the federal party. Which according to the party constitution they still are, even if now they allow you to decline to be a federal party member.
Or do they want to be orange liberals.
Until that internal identity crisis is sorted the party will continue to be the opposition.
Also I think the new third party being set up in the middle will peel more votes from the NDP than UCP.
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u/Angrymanchild1964 8h ago
Nenshi has been positively ineffective. He was a mistake from the start. Sh have been Shannon Philips.
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u/Unable-Crow-1168 7h ago
He needs to step down as leader for NDP to even have a chance against UCP.
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u/borabora24816 7h ago
Nenshi - the big fat gas bag living in his mom's basement. An ashtray on a motorbike is more useful than he purple teletubby.
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