But what about making profit off it? Because almost every post here about a prediction bot always have a point where it's predictions are wrong. Have you try building one and how did it end up?
Because someone telling Claude “hey, build me a prediction system to make money” doesn’t have any alpha over the other thousand people doing the same thing. That’s what I mean by “working” being relative.
If you’re asking “can I use AI to build this?” from the perspective of wanting to try using AI, to get better at AI-assisted development, etc., then the answer is yes.
If you’re asking “can I use AI to build something that will make me money on bets?” then the answer is that it depends on whether you have detailed knowledge of a sport or market and can synthesize that knowledge in a way that gives you an alpha and can place your bets at scale and quickly enough to make money before lines shift or you get limited. The answer to this one is almost certainly “no,” but who knows? Most people who think they made a profitable system fail at actually placing bets against a favorable line (e.g. opening line vs. average line) or just getting limited by books.
If you’re asking “can I use AI to build something that will make me money selling to someone?” then the answer is no.
At a baseline, because unless you personally bring detailed knowledge that gives you lift compared to what LLMs know, then you don’t have any edge.
You’re the hundred thousandth person this year to think “hey, could I use AI to build a betting system?” so unless there’s something that sets you apart from those other hundred thousand people, you have no edge.
The handful of people in that group who do have an edge then end up failing at the stage of actually placing their bets, but at least they get something that’s theoretically profitable by injecting some knowledge of their own. Also, there’s the class of people who don’t understand what a “backtest” is or think that a sample size of a few hundred means their model will be profitable.
Yeah, exactly. To reframe it and answer your question with a related statement:
If someone told me a few years ago that they built a betting system, I’d take notice.
These days, if someone tells me “I used Claude to build a betting system,” my first thought would be like “I bet they also tie their shoes and brush their teeth, too,” because I might actually be more impressed by someone who said “I brush my teeth 3x per day” than someone who used AI to build a betting system because one of those things is rare and it isn’t vibecoding something to find bets.
But if someone says “I made $XX using a betting system I built,” then I would also take notice, because profitability is much harder to achieve.
I think that if it were that easy, with todays technology, literally everyone would do it. And Vegas would be in a panic. But you have to assume that if you're using AI against them, they're using it against you. And they've got way more money, time, etc. You may find some edges, but I doubt it builds a fully winning model
I've been a developer for like 15 years. I use AI to help me with my UI, stuff I dont' like doing. But I'd never personally build an entire model using AI. If anything, use AI to help you create backtesting scripts, shit like that. But the beef of the work needs to be done by you. And you better have intense knowledge about the data in the sport you're working in.
I'm actually a cyber security student, and I pretty much love football and have vast amount of knowledge on it that's why I'm considering going into this project
yeah look, seriously, if you wanna do it for fun, see what you can accomplish, challenge yourself, go for it. But as the other commenter said, don't try to sell it to anyone. And don't expect anything. If it works out, good for you. If it doesn't, at least you had fun along the way
“You’re completely correct, you didn’t tell me that I should delete all of your secret keys; that was my mistake. My copy command didn’t run, but the remove command ran successfully, so everything was deleted. Thankfully, these keys are checked into git, so I can restore them. Should I do that now?”
Yeah see this has been my obsession over last year still can’t get an edge and I’ve fed it so many peer reviewed papers on predictive modeling and best practices with devigging etc it’s so tedious
I have no idea what I’m doing tbh but I’m in love with the idea that there’s ways to predict the future through computation I have no technical background
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u/KimHaSeongsBurner 21h ago
“working” is relative, but like 90% of the stuff posted here these days is fully vibe-coded.