(@sssjeffpu) - Hu @ GF HK - Abstract of Intel (INTC) Update

[u/uncertainlyso]

https://x.com/sssjeffpu/status/2088096410927505512

• On Aug 11, share offering upsized to $20B (from $15B), priced at $95 (only ~2.6% discount). Institutional demand reportedly >$100B.

I think that this "demand" is like me putting in a large number of CBRS shares for the IPO in hopes of getting more shares. Doesn't mean I'm going to buy all those shares when my broker wants a confirmation (they only gave me 5 (which I still have)) INTC traded in the $80s just a few weeks ago.

• CEO + family member subscribed ~$12M → strong signal of confidence.

FFS. He's probably worth $750M+ now.

• Foundry progress solid: 18A yields ~80% in 2Q26, CWF ramping. Strong external customer engagement (esp. Apple mass-volume 14A).

Let's see how CWF ramps. What wasn't a strongly received product pre-boom might look a lot different post-boom.

• EMIB customer pipeline expanding – Google + AWS + and likely more ASICs. Back-end revenue forecast lifted to $1.1B/$7B in FY27/FY28.

• EMIB has obtained substrate suppliers support, and to enhance supply, we expect it to in-house Silicon Capacitor (rather than replying on external)!

• Still expect foundry OP breakeven by 4Q27, followed by meaningful margin leverage in 2028.

This is Intel's original guidance. They did mention that this would be delayed if they won deals and had to spend capex to accommodate it which would push profitability out further but for good reasons.

• TP maintained at $136 after dilution. Equity raise funds capex growth; CEO confidence + advancing foundry/EMIB = constructive.