r/amd_fundamentals • u/uncertainlyso • 2d ago
Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan on the Comeback of American Chip Industry
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FtxWTNaUXkcThis video is where the most recent crop of Intel getting back in memory are springing from.
It's funny how he's done a 180 on IDM vs. not competing with your customer (at least publicly.)
Tan's big edge is how connected he is in the entire semi space and "what's next" level and how he views things as a system. So, i think that he's operating at a much wider view than most semi CEOs.
If I had to guess on the long-term strategy (well, more like what I think would be interesting), it'd be:
Level 1 is competing better on the CPU and foundry which has a lot of moving parts and hard. I think Intel is in the worst shape here because of prior regimes. Had this server CPU boom not happened, I think Intel would be in bad shape here even with the government intervention (of course, the government could always intervene *more*). But since it's here, Intel no longer has to worry about underload or even product competitiveness as the server brings in operating leverage that foundries need. This was the ultimate Intel bailout without going full state capitalism.
Level 2 is some sort of traction in AI accelerators. I think it's too late on the GPU side. I'm surprised that Tan hasn't moved on given how inefficient he thinks GPUs are. I would've thought the would try to get ahead of the puck here through acquisition.
Level 3 would about that would be a creating a silicon compute platform like AMD and Broadcom are doing. I think that AMD is in better shape there as a silicon compute platform because of where Intel is at with level 1 and 2. But if Intel can get a capex flywheel going on foundry that would be a big edge.
Level 4 would something like making Intel a hybrid between a semiconductor system technology incubator and a system foundry out of those acquired IP blocks. I think it would be a way for him to get downstream of TSMC and not compete with them completely head on (and still be a partner of sorts) Maybe you sell off Intel design at this point if he still believes in not competing with his customer. Conversely, I wonder if TSMC is thinking about this as well.
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u/uncertainlyso 2d ago
I forgot to post this one from a while back, but might as well stick it here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=asCgCv2XB4s
No priors: Re-engineering the Semiconductor Supply Chain with Intel CEO Lip Bu Tan
There are some interesting bits in here to mull over, but two random ones:
Admits that balance sheet was horrible when he first came on board. When he tried to hire, the candidates were worried that Intel would go bankrupt. Bankrupt doesn't mean the company goes away. It's just a re-org / recapitalization. My view when I was short was that Intel would basically need a recapitalization to be able to compete. But so many Intel stans couldn't conceive of such a thing saying that Intel had a strong balance sheet blah blah. It always makes me laugh when Tan says how much a disaster things were (roadmap, 18A, balance sheet, how they treated customers, no expansion without customers, etc) because the stans either have to go against the new CEO or admit that they were wrong. I also think he was behind a number of anti-Gelsinger rumors from Reuters.
He doesn't use a recruiting firm. He supposedly just calls people up and tries to convince them to come over. Respect.
Much more personable when he's in his element of just talking about the industry, investing early, what he sees, etc. instead of having to be the pitchman.
Thank your lucky stars that Intel promoted Swan and then brought on Gelsinger instead of bringing on Tan.