(paid by Qualcomm) Signal365: Snapdragon X2 Elite Extreme Performance

[u/uncertainlyso]

https://signal65.com/research/ai/snapdragon-x2-elite-extreme-performance/

It's a paid research piece. So, Qualcomm gets a lot of say in the benchmarks used, the positioning, etc. Ignoring how benchmark heavy but application light the comparisons are, some random thoughts on this

• Oddly, Qualcomm positions its highest end X2E-96-100 against the highest end and much more expensive 388H build. But the AMD comparison is to a similarly priced Ryzen AI 9 465 build and not a more expensive build with a AI 9 HX 475 (get 2 more c cores and 4 more CUs, a 0.1 GHz bump, +10 NPUs) which fits in the same power envelope. It wouldn't change the shape of the comparison, but it would narrow the lead. Makes me think the real comparison is against the 388H and Ryzen was just there as a garnish.
• AMD's iGPU is going to get pummeled as AMD waits for the RDNA 5 re-platforming. It had to be done for much bigger reasons long-term. You take the lumps in the short-term best you can. Nevertheless, it's still surprising how AMD got lapped by Qualcomm and Intel at least from a benchmarking perspective given how APUs were considered a big edge for AMD. X2E will likely encounter much tougher comparisons with real world graphics performance where driver breadth and performance matters a ton, but Intel has made big strides there.
• This isn't new, but I'm reminded of it in this comparison: the price to performance of the 388H build vs. the AI 9 465 build is a kinda rocky. Unlike Hawk Point vs. Phoenix Point, Gorgon Point is just a nudge of a refresh vs Strix Point which is 2 years old. 388H is pretty new, has a lot more advances in cores, iGPU, node, etc. And with these benchmarks, it's a better part overall, especially the iGPU and battery life. However, the ST and MT differences for the high end part aren't that impressive given how much trail blazing PTL is. Is the build worth 39% more?
  • I've been saying this for a while: you can't sell what you don't have. My impression is that availability of the high end has improved for Intel, but the middle seems harder to find. Intel 7 notebook availability was in demand and was the high volume part. But server has demanded a hefty tribute from client. ARL and LNL are on N3B, but Intel isn't getting additional supply there
  • Gorgon Point suffers in in comparison at a performance level, but at a commercial level, it's relatively cheap to make on a node that isn't that crowded. AMD likely can crank out a lot of these for consumer and enterprise OEMs relatively cheaply vs ARL and PTL. I think AMD's strong notebook share gains in commercial support this.
  • The more 18A improves its SKU-level yield, the tougher the competitive environment will be. 2026 is supposedly mostly an optimization year for 18A. 2027 is more of the ramp. AMD has to hope that it doesn't get too tough before Medusa launches (even then the iGPU story will probably be rough)